EURUSD midweek: 97 pips lower ahead of the Fed, week of 2026-10-26
Where EURUSD stands midweek
EURUSD trades at 1.11195 as of Wednesday's last print. That is 97 pips below Monday's 1.12169 open, a decline of 0.87 percent on the week so far. The high is 1.12264, set in Monday's session. The low is 1.11166, printed today. Every daily bar this week has closed below its own open, and today's volume of 8,014 against Monday's 41,537 tells you the session is still young.
What has driven price so far
No euro area or US release in this week's calendar has landed yet, so the slide is positioning rather than reaction to a number. The wires on Wednesday morning led with European markets bracing for the Fed decision, with a hot Australia CPI print and an RBNZ surprise adding to the noise. That dollar bid showed up elsewhere: AUD/USD failed to clear key resistance despite the hot CPI and a hawkish RBA. When a currency cannot rally on its own good news, the move is about the dollar, not the cross.
What's still ahead
The Fed decision is the only event the market is pricing into the back half of this week, and there is no scheduled euro area data in the bundle to compete with it. If the statement reads hawkish and EURUSD stays under 1.11733, Monday's close, the week's low at 1.11166 becomes the obvious reference point and the 1.1100 handle sits just beneath it. If the tone disappoints dollar bulls and price reclaims 1.11733, the 1.12264 high from Monday is the first thing sellers would have to defend. Thursday and Friday will either confirm the three-day drift or reverse it.
Positioning right now
As of 2026-10-28, 52.1 percent of positioning is long and 47.9 percent is short. That is close to flat. Retail is leaning marginally against the three-day decline, but not with the lopsided conviction you often see after a 97 pip move. A skew this thin means no crowded side gets flushed on a sharp move, which usually leaves the event itself, not stop cascades, to set direction.
The level that matters today
Price is grinding along the week's low at 1.11166, with today's entire range so far compressed between there and 1.11318. That is a 15 pip band. A clean break below 1.11166 opens the 1.1100 round number, where the market has not traded this week. Hold it and the first real test on the way back is 1.11733, Monday's close and Tuesday's open. You can track both levels live on an LHFX account and see where spreads sit when the decision hits.
Byline: LHFX Research
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