You watched USDCAD open the week at 1.40862 and close Friday at 1.40197. The pair printed its weekly high of 1.41284 on Tuesday and its weekly low of 1.39903 on Thursday. That leaves a net move of about 66 pips lower on the week, with the bulk of the damage done between Wednesday and Thursday.
The turn came midweek. Monday and Tuesday held firm near the highs, but Wednesday's session pushed the low down to 1.40228 and the pair never recovered the 1.4100 handle after that. On Thursday, a technical read from forexlive flagged USDCAD trading to a fresh multi-week low, confirming the shift in tone.
Broad US dollar softness was the other driver. On the same Thursday, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained over 1% on the day, a sign the selling was dollar-wide rather than a Canada-specific story. You can see the same pressure reflected in AUD/USD, which ran higher while USDCAD sank.
The bundle carries no scheduled high-impact events for the coming week. That puts the burden on price action and any unscheduled headlines. If the dollar-wide selling that dragged USDCAD to Thursday's low continues, the recent lows stay in focus. If risk sentiment reverses and the dollar bid returns, the pair has room back toward its recent range top. Watch the daily closes rather than intraday spikes for the cleaner read.
LHFX client positioning sits at 51.6% long and 48.4% short. That is a near-even book with a slight long lean, even after a week of lower closes. A crowd that stays modestly long into a falling market often signals traders fading the move, which can leave those positions exposed if the downtrend extends.
Thursday's low at 1.39903 is the first line in the sand. If price closes below it, the round 1.3950 area becomes the next obvious reference. On the upside, Friday's close at 1.40197 sits just under the 1.4020 pivot. If buyers reclaim and hold above the week's midpoint near 1.4060, the Tuesday high at 1.41284 comes back into view. You can track these levels live on the LHFX platform and set your alerts around them.
Byline: LHFX Research
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