As of Wednesday's close, USDCAD sits at 1.40867. That is down from Monday's open at 1.40862, essentially flat on the week when measured open to now, but the path there tells the story. The pair printed a high of 1.41284 on Tuesday and has since faded to a low of 1.40856 this week. Momentum has turned lower from Tuesday's peak.
The dollar rolled over midweek. ForexLive noted the USD moved lower as markets flipped and crude oil sold off, a combination that usually weighs on USDCAD since a softer greenback and the oil link both cut against the pair. A separate technical read flagged that USDCAD could not extend below the 200 hour moving average on Tuesday, bouncing modestly into that close. The pair then rolled over again into Wednesday, closing near its weekly low.
The bundle carries no scheduled high-impact events for the back half of this week, so price action into Thursday and Friday is likely to hang on the same drivers already in play: the direction of the dollar and crude oil. If the greenback keeps softening and oil stays offered, sellers have room to press the weekly low. If the dollar firms and oil steadies, the Tuesday bounce off the 200 hour moving average becomes the reference point again.
As of Wednesday morning, sentiment reads 51.6 percent long and 48.4 percent short. That is close to balanced, with only a slight lean toward the upside. It tells you consensus midweek has no strong conviction here, which fits a pair that has round-tripped its opening level.
The line in the sand is this week's low near 1.4086. If sellers close below it and hold, the round 1.4050 area is the next obvious reference. If price defends 1.4086 and pushes back up, Tuesday's high at 1.41284 caps the range and becomes the level buyers need to clear. Traders watching correlated moves can cross-check dollar behaviour against AUD/USD for confirmation. If you want to track these levels as they develop, you can open an LHFX account and follow the pair in real time.
Byline: LHFX Research
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