EURUSD midweek: up 73 pips into payrolls week, 2026-11-02
Where EURUSD stands midweek
EURUSD closed Wednesday's session at 1.12298. That is 73 pips above Monday's 1.11564 open, a gain of 0.66% on the week so far. The range has been one sided: the low came in the first hour of the week at 1.11559, and the high of 1.12626 was printed Wednesday. Every session this week has closed above where it opened.
What has driven price so far
The move is a dollar story more than a euro story. Wednesday's dominant wire headline was an outright call to sell the dollar alongside tech on the back of the US election sweep, and the pair worked higher from there without needing a data catalyst. A weaker than expected PBOC yuan fix landed in the same session and did nothing to slow the rotation out of the dollar. Nothing on the euro side has printed yet this week to justify the bid on its own merits.
What's still ahead
Friday at 13:30 is the week's main event: US Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast 65K against 29K previously. Alongside it, the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% m/m. A print that beats 65K and firms earnings gives the dollar its first real reason to push back against this week's drift, and the 1.1200 handle becomes the test. A miss that keeps the labour market soft leaves Wednesday's 1.12626 high as the obvious reference point. Before that, euro area CPI Flash Estimate lands Wednesday at 10:00 with a 4.0% y/y forecast versus 3.8% previously and core steady at 2.5%. ECB President Lagarde speaks Thursday at 18:00. Thursday also brings US Unemployment Claims at 197K forecast against 194K, plus a Bank of England decision at 12:00 with a 4.00% bank rate forecast from 3.75% and a 7-0-2 vote split, which is likely to hand GBP/USD the sharper intraday move while EURUSD waits on Friday.
Positioning right now
As of Wednesday morning, 52.1% of open positions are long and 47.9% are short. That is close to flat. After a 73 pip rally, a book this balanced says the move has been dollar driven rather than conviction buying of the euro, and that traders are unwilling to commit size with payrolls two sessions away. There is no crowded side to squeeze here.
The level that matters today
1.12626 is the line in the sand. Price touched it Wednesday and closed 33 pips below, so a daily close back above it would confirm buyers are still in control into the CPI print. Below, 1.12068 was Wednesday's open and the pair has not traded under it since, which makes it the first level that tells you the week's trend is stalling. A failure there puts 1.11987, the Wednesday low, in play, with the 1.11559 weekly low beneath that. If you want to watch the payrolls reaction with live spreads in front of you, opening an LHFX account is the practical first step.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
