EURUSD trades at 1.15340 as of Wednesday's close, down roughly 21 pips from Monday's open of 1.15552. The week's high sits at 1.15653, printed Monday, and the low at 1.15310, tagged Tuesday. Three sessions of small, heavy candles have left the pair pressed against the bottom of its range.
There has been no scheduled top-tier data on the euro this week. The steady drift lower has tracked dollar-side flows, with the PBOC setting a weaker USD/CNY mid-point Wednesday than the market looked for. A softer yuan fix leans dollar-supportive, and EURUSD has bled a few pips in that direction each session rather than moving on a single catalyst.
The bundle carries no scheduled high-impact releases for the back half of this week, so the driver into Thursday and Friday stays flow and headline risk rather than a fixed data point. Watch the daily PBOC fix as a proxy for dollar tone. If the fixes keep printing weaker than estimate, the dollar bid that has capped EURUSD all week likely persists. If the yuan fixes swing back toward estimate, some of that pressure eases and the euro gets room to test back toward Monday's levels.
As of Wednesday, LHFX clients sit 52.1 percent long and 47.9 percent short EURUSD. That is a near-even book with a slight long lean, which tells you consensus midweek is not committed. Traders are picking at the lower end of the range without conviction that the drift lower has further to run.
The 1.15310 low is the line in play. Hold it and the range that has capped price near 1.15650 stays intact, keeping the pair boxed. Break and close below 1.15300 and the round figure at 1.15000 becomes the next reference lower. A move back above 1.15450, Tuesday's open, would signal the sellers have lost their grip for now. You can track the same dollar tone across GBP/USD, and if you want to trade these levels as they develop you can open an account with LHFX to follow the pair live.
Byline: LHFX Research
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