Market Analysis
NAS100 midweek: index holds 30300 after soft start, 2026-09-28
NAS100 sits at 30334.37 on Wednesday, down 234.70 points from Monday's open, with the week's range still set by Monday's 30617.83 high and 30079.80 low.
3 min readUSDCHF trades at 0.83349 as Wednesday's session fills out. That is 38 pips above Monday's 0.82967 open, a gain of 0.46 percent on the week to date. The high stands at 0.83583, printed Tuesday, and the low at 0.82901 from Monday morning. That is a 68 pip range across three sessions, and the pair is sitting in the upper half of it. Wednesday's bar is not closed, so the range can still widen before New York goes home.
The dollar bid has been uneven rather than broad. The PBOC set its USD/CNY mid-point above the Reuters estimate on Wednesday, a weaker fix for the yuan than the market looked for and a mild dollar-positive signal through Asia hours. USD/JPY went the other way, slipping as half-year-end flows and Fed commentary weighed. USDCHF took the first cue and largely ignored the second, grinding up from Monday's low without ever reclaiming Tuesday's peak. The franc has not been the story this week. The dollar has.
There is no tier-one scheduled data on our calendar for Thursday or Friday, which hands the back half of the week to flows and central bank speakers. Wednesday is the quarter turn, so the rebalancing demand that has supported the dollar in places can reverse once books are set. If that unwind lands and USDCHF loses Wednesday's 0.83317 low, the Monday base near 0.82901 comes back into the conversation. If the Asia-hours dollar bid carries into Thursday and the pair holds above 0.8330, Tuesday's 0.83583 high is the friction point again. The second thread is the yen. Continued USD/JPY softness on Fed commentary would argue the dollar strength here is narrow, and a narrow move is easier to fade than a broad one. The same logic reads across to EUR/USD, where a firmer euro would press the franc from the other side.
As of Wednesday, 54 percent of positioning is long USDCHF and 46 percent is short. That is a mild tilt, not a crowd. Consensus midweek leans with the three-day uptrend, but nobody has committed hard, which fits a pair that has gained 38 pips without a clean breakout. A skew this shallow rarely produces a squeeze in either direction. It also means a surprise dollar move meets less resistance from trapped positions than a 70/30 book would.
0.83583 is the line. Tuesday tagged it and Wednesday has not been back, stalling instead around 0.83469. If the remaining sessions close above that Tuesday high, the 0.8400 round number becomes the next reference. If sellers defend it again and 0.83317 gives way, the pair falls back inside Monday's range and 0.83000 becomes the level doing the work. You can watch both sides live and see where our spreads sit through the quarter turn by opening an account with us.
Byline: LHFX Research
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