As of Wednesday's close, USDMXN trades at 17.4311. That is down about 55 pips from Monday's open at 17.4366. The high for the week so far is 17.4905, printed Tuesday, and the low is 17.4086, set Monday. The pair has drifted lower and volume has thinned into the middle of the week.
The bundle carries no scheduled economic releases for USDMXN this week, so the move has been flow-driven rather than event-driven. A broad note from forexlive on Tuesday flagged the dollar moving lower as markets flipped and crude oil softened. That fits the price action here: the peso firmed against a softer dollar, dragging USDMXN off Tuesday's 17.4905 high back toward the low 17.43s.
The calendar for the back half of this week is empty in the bundle, so there is no high-impact release to anchor Thursday or Friday. That leaves USDMXN driven by the broad dollar tone and risk appetite. If the softer-dollar theme that pressured majors like AUD/USD extends, USDMXN can keep leaking toward the Monday low. If the dollar stabilises, the pair likely reverts inside this week's range instead.
As of Wednesday, sentiment reads 62.1 percent long and 37.9 percent short. The skew leans toward traders positioned for a higher USDMXN, meaning consensus is fading the drift lower and looking for the dollar to reclaim ground. A crowded long book can also cut both ways if price breaks down through support.
The 17.4086 Monday low is the line in the sand. Hold above it and the pair stays inside the week's range, with 17.4555, Wednesday's high, as the first cap. Lose 17.4086 and the round 17.40 handle comes into play, opening room below. You can build both scenarios into your plan when you open an account with LHFX and set your levels ahead of Thursday.
Byline: LHFX Research
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