As of Wednesday's close, USDJPY trades at 163.548. That leaves it about 7 pips below Monday's open of 163.616, a move of roughly 0.04 percent lower on the week so far. The week's high is 163.947, printed Tuesday. The low is 163.274, carved out Wednesday. The range is holding under 164.00.
The tone flipped Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday leaned higher, with the pair grinding from 163.616 up to a 163.947 peak. Then broad dollar softness took hold. Forexlive flagged the greenback moving lower as markets flipped and crude oil eased, and USDJPY followed, dropping from 163.864 at Wednesday's open down to 163.274 before settling at 163.548. The reversal wiped out the early-week grind higher.
The bundle carries no scheduled high-impact events for the back half of this week, so price action is likely to trade on dollar flow and broader risk tone rather than a single data release. If the Wednesday selloff extends and the dollar stays soft into Thursday, the week's low near 163.27 comes back into focus. If buyers reclaim the 163.86 open and hold it, the Tuesday high near 163.95 is the level to watch. The same dollar tone that hit USDJPY was visible in EUR/USD, which failed to hold a break outside its range.
As of Wednesday, retail positioning is close to balanced. Longs sit at 49.3 percent and shorts at 50.7 percent. That marginal short skew tells you consensus has no strong conviction midweek. Traders are split, which fits a pair that swung both directions inside a single week.
The 163.27 low is the near-term pivot. Hold above it and the pair keeps the door open to retest 163.86. Lose it on a fresh dollar leg lower and the round 163.00 handle is the next reference below. You can track these levels live on an LHFX account.
Byline: LHFX Research
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