Market Analysis
EURUSD weekly: euro drops 111 pips to 1.14817, 2026-09-14
EURUSD gave up 111 pips over the week of 14 September 2026, with the whole loss landing in a single Wednesday session that broke 1.1500.
4 min readUSDCHF opened Monday at 0.80937 and closed Friday at 0.80733, a net loss of roughly 20 pips across the week. The high came early, with Monday tagging 0.81486, before Wednesday's slide to a 0.80303 low set the tone. Price steadied into Friday but never reclaimed the Monday peak, leaving the pair mid-range after a week without a clear directional winner.
The ECB rate decision on Thursday, 23 July, is the anchor. The Main Refinancing Rate is forecast to hold at 2.40%, matching the previous 2.40%, so the reaction hinges on the Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference at 12:45. A held rate with hawkish guidance tends to firm the euro and pressure the dollar leg of dollar crosses, while a dovish tone does the reverse.
The secondary theme is the flash PMI batch on Friday, 24 July. German Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.5 against a prior 50.0, and German Flash Services PMI at 49.0 versus 46.8, both pointing to a possible lift in euro-area momentum. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 54.5 from 55.7. Diverging surprises between these prints would drive the relative value that shows up in USDCHF. Open an LHFX account to trade USDCHF this week.
If the ECB statement reads hawkish and euro-area PMIs beat forecast, dollar strength across European crosses can fade, and a push back below last week's 0.80303 low brings the low 0.80 region into focus. If the ECB leans dovish and US data holds firmer, USDCHF can grind back toward the 0.81486 Monday high. A softer US PMI print alongside a firm euro tends to show up in correlated moves in EUR/USD, so watch that pair for confirmation of the dollar tone.
LHFX client positioning shows 54% long and 46% short on USDCHF as the week opens. That is a mild long skew, close to balanced, which signals no strong consensus into the ECB event. A crowded book usually fades quickly on a surprise, but this near-even split leaves room for either side to build without an obvious squeeze.
Last week's high at 0.81486 is the first upside reference, with the round 0.8100 handle sitting just below it. On the downside, Wednesday's 0.80303 low is the key floor, and Friday's 0.80733 close marks the mid-range pivot. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals. How price behaves around them as the ECB decision lands tells you more than any single number does.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
