Market Analysis
EURUSD weekly: euro drops 111 pips to 1.14817, 2026-09-14
EURUSD gave up 111 pips over the week of 14 September 2026, with the whole loss landing in a single Wednesday session that broke 1.1500.
4 min readGER30 opened the week at 25416.4 and finished at 25648.7. That is a gain of 232.3 points, or 0.91%. The week's high was 25802.8, printed on Thursday, and the low was 25168.2, printed on Tuesday. That gives you a 634.6 point range, and the close sat in the upper third of it. Four of the five sessions in the bundle closed green.
The bundle carries no scheduled economic releases and no headlines for the closing week, so the tape is the only evidence you have. Monday set the tone: price dipped to 25323.7, then recovered to close at 25502.3, above the open. Tuesday broke that. Sellers took the index down to 25168.2 from the 25507.7 open, before buyers absorbed the supply and dragged the close back up to 25451.1. That single-day recovery off the low was the week's most informative candle.
Wednesday and Thursday extended the repair. Wednesday closed at 25605.6, clearing Monday's 25576 high. Thursday spiked to 25802.8 and then handed most of that back to close at 25633.6, leaving an upper wick that marks where sellers stepped in. Friday did almost nothing, holding a 115.2 point band between 25564.6 and 25679.8, and volume collapsed from 126,489 on Monday to 9,085 on Friday. Thin tape flatters small moves, so treat the Friday close as a placeholder rather than a verdict. If you trade the index alongside US equity exposure, the Nasdaq 100 is the usual cross-check on whether risk appetite is broad or local to Europe.
There are no high-impact calendar events in this bundle for the upcoming week, so the honest read is that structure matters more than the diary. Build your scenarios around the levels the week just produced. If volume returns and price trades back above Thursday's 25802.8 high, the Thursday rejection is invalidated and the round 26000 handle becomes the next reference. If volume returns and price instead loses the 25564.6 Friday low, the Wednesday close at 25605.6 flips from support to resistance and Tuesday's 25168.2 low is back on the map. Should any unscheduled euro-area release land hotter than expected, the typical index reaction is a bid in cyclicals and a push toward the upper end of the weekly range. A cooler print usually does the reverse, pressing the index back into the middle of the range where most of the week's volume traded.
As of 18 September 2026, 61.7% of positioning is long and 38.3% is short. That is a clear consensus for continuation, and it is consistent with a market that just closed near the top of its weekly range. A skew that heavy has a cost. With almost two longs for every short, the fuel for an upside squeeze is limited, and a break of the Friday low gives late buyers an obvious reason to flatten. Crowded books tend to make downside moves faster than the price action that built them.
The first level is 25802.8, the Thursday high and the point where the week's only real rejection happened. A daily close above it puts the 26000 round number in view; a second failure there keeps the range intact. The second level is 25564.6, the Friday low and the floor of a quiet session. Losing it turns the Wednesday close at 25605.6 into overhead resistance and exposes the 25360.6 Wednesday low. Below that, the Tuesday spike low at 25168.2 is the line that defined the week. You can follow all three on a live GER30 chart once you open an LHFX account.
Byline: LHFX Research
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