Market Analysis
USDTRY midweek: lira grinds lower, pair holds above 47.20, 2026-07-20
USDTRY sits at 47.20455 after a steady climb from Monday's open, with the ECB decision and Australian jobs the events left to watch Thursday.
2 min readUSDCAD sits at 1.41025 as of Wednesday's close, up roughly 83 pips from Monday's open at 1.40192. The pair has printed a week-to-date high of 1.41107 and a low of 1.40025, so the range so far is a touch over 100 pips. Wednesday's session has been tight, holding a narrow band between 1.40987 and 1.41076.
There is no scheduled Canadian or US release doing the heavy lifting this week. The move higher tracks broad dollar strength that also carried USD/JPY to a fresh 40-year high above 163 on Tuesday, driven by gains in equities, yields and oil. That risk-on, higher-yield backdrop pushed USDCAD from Monday's 1.40711 close through 1.41 on Tuesday, and it has stalled there since.
The event calendar for the back half of this week is empty. That leaves flow and dollar direction in charge. If the broad dollar bid that lifted EUR/USD counterparts and USD/JPY carries into Thursday and Friday, USDCAD has room to press the week's high again. If that bid fades on a softer yield or oil picture, the pair likely drifts back toward the Tuesday base.
As of Wednesday, retail positioning reads 51.5 percent long against 48.5 percent short. That is close to balanced with a slight long lean. It tells you consensus midweek is barely committed here, which fits a pair that ran hard Monday into Tuesday and then went sideways.
The line in the sand is the week's high at 1.41107, just above the round 1.4100 handle Wednesday has been defending. If buyers clear 1.41107 and hold, the 1.4150 zone comes into view. If 1.4100 gives way, Tuesday's 1.40536 low is the next obvious reference on the way down. Open a live account with us if you want to trade these levels as they resolve into Thursday and Friday: open an account with LHFX.
Byline: LHFX Research
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