Market Analysis
USDCHF week ahead: what to watch for the week of 2026-08-03
USDCHF closed last week near 0.8072 after a sharp mid-week drop. Here is where the levels sit and how positioning looks into the new week.
3 min readSPX500 opened Monday at 7474.3 and closed Friday at 7480.9, a net gain of roughly 6.6 points, or about 0.1 percent across the week. The path there was far from calm. Wednesday's session dumped the index to a 7289.1 low before buyers dragged it back, and Friday's push to a 7510.7 high marked the top of the range before the close settled just below it.
Friday's US Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30 on 2026-08-07 is the centre of the week. Consensus sits at 88K, up from the prior 57K, alongside Average Hourly Earnings forecast at 0.3 percent and an Unemployment Rate held at 4.2 percent. This single print tends to set the tone for equity risk into the following week.
Two earlier US releases feed the same jobs narrative. ISM Manufacturing PMI lands Monday at 14:00 on 2026-08-03 with a 54.0 forecast against 53.3 prior. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday at 12:15 carries a 71K forecast, down from 98K, and ISM Services PMI follows at 14:00 with a 54.5 forecast. JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, forecast at 7.42M, rounds out the labour picture ahead of Friday.
If Friday's payrolls print comes in hotter than the 88K forecast with earnings firm, rate-cut expectations can cool and the index may test back toward last week's 7510.7 high. Clear that on a close and the round 7550 area is the next reference. If the print lands cooler and the unemployment rate ticks above 4.2 percent, a softer-growth read can pressure risk toward Wednesday's 7289.1 low. Weakness in ADP on Wednesday can front-run that move. Correlated index moves are worth watching too, since a soft US labour read often spills into the Nasdaq 100 ahead of the cash session.
LHFX client positioning shows 58.4 percent long against 41.6 percent short as of 2026-08-03. The book leans long into a jobs-heavy week, which means a disappointing payrolls print has more crowded longs to shake out than an upside surprise has shorts to squeeze. Consensus is tilted toward continuation, not reversal.
Last week's 7510.7 high is the first upside reference. A sustained move above it opens the 7550 round-number zone. On the downside, Friday's 7480.9 close and then Wednesday's 7289.1 low frame the near-term floor. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals. Open an LHFX account to trade SPX500 this week.
Byline: LHFX Research
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