Market Analysis
USDTRY midweek: lira grinds lower, pair holds above 47.20, 2026-07-20
USDTRY sits at 47.20455 after a steady climb from Monday's open, with the ECB decision and Australian jobs the events left to watch Thursday.
2 min readNAS100 last printed 28962.93 on Wednesday, up roughly 271 points from Monday's open of 28691.65. The week's high so far is 29190.54, set Tuesday, and the low is 28527.74, marked early Monday. The index built its gains Tuesday, then handed a little back through Wednesday's session.
The move higher has come without a heavyweight US data catalyst this week. Tuesday's rally carried the index from a 28605.64 open to a 29132.69 close, and Wednesday drifted lower into a quiet calendar. The only scheduled US item Wednesday is President Trump speaking at 19:00, a medium-impact event that can move risk sentiment on headlines rather than numbers.
The largest event left is the ECB rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement at 12:15 Thursday, with the Main Refinancing Rate forecast to hold at 2.40%, followed by the press conference at 12:45. A hawkish tone from that conference tends to pressure equity risk appetite, so if NAS100 is holding above 29000 into the statement and the tone reads dovish, the upper part of this week's range comes back into focus. A hawkish surprise puts the midweek lows back in play. Watch Australian Employment Change at 01:30 Thursday too, forecast 16.4K against a prior 40.3K, which can set the risk tone before Europe opens. The DAX 30 often reacts first to ECB messaging, so it is worth tracking alongside.
As of Wednesday, LHFX client positioning shows 54.8% long against 45.2% short. That is a mild long lean, not a crowded one. It tells you the midweek consensus still tilts toward the upside after Tuesday's push, without the kind of one-sided skew that often precedes a squeeze.
The 29000 round number is the pivot to watch. If NAS100 reclaims and holds above it, Tuesday's 29190.54 high is the next reference. If sellers keep price capped below 29000, the Wednesday low near 28961 and then the Monday base at 28527.74 come back into the conversation. You can track how these levels hold into Thursday's ECB session by opening an LHFX account and following the index in real time.
Byline: LHFX Research
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