Market Analysis
XAUUSD midweek: gold breaks above 4160, where we are 2026-08-03
Gold is up roughly 89 dollars from Monday's open, having cleared 4172.77 intraday as Hormuz deal hopes ease inflation fears.
2 min readEURUSD sits at 1.15357 as of Wednesday's close, roughly 71 pips below Monday's open at 1.15432 on the print but well recovered from Monday's own 1.15065 close. Monday opened at 1.15432, sold off to a 1.14998 low, and closed near the bottom of its range. Since then the pair has clawed back, with the week's high at 1.15556 set Monday and Wednesday holding a tight 1.15262 to 1.15401 band. The midweek picture is a recovery off Monday's dip.
The move has been dollar-side rather than euro-side. Monday's slide and the Tuesday bounce both tracked positioning into a heavy US calendar rather than any fresh euro data, since this week's European PMI prints have landed as low-impact confirmations of prior readings. The euro's own catalysts stay light until the back half, leaving the pair to trade off dollar sentiment ahead of Friday's jobs data.
Friday's US Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30 is the week's center of gravity, forecast at 85K against a previous 57K, alongside the Unemployment Rate held at 4.2% and Average Hourly Earnings at 0.3%. If payrolls beat and the dollar firms, EURUSD comes under pressure back toward the 1.15000 area. If the number disappoints and yields ease, the euro has room to press the week's high. The second event to watch is Wednesday's US ISM Services PMI at 14:00, forecast 54.5 versus 54.0 prior, which sets the tone into the jobs data. For a contrasting read on how the dollar is trading against a commodity currency, AUD/USD gives a cleaner risk gauge.
As of Wednesday morning, LHFX client positioning shows 52.1% long against 47.9% short. That is a modest long lean, close enough to balanced that consensus has not committed midweek. It tells you the recovery off Monday has drawn some buyers, but nobody is crowding one side into Friday's payrolls.
The pair is working around 1.15400, the top of Wednesday's range and just under Monday's 1.15556 high. If buyers clear and hold above that high, the next round-number focus is 1.15500 and the level above it. If sellers defend the 1.15400 area and price rolls over, the 1.15000 zone that capped Monday's low comes back into view. You can watch both levels against Friday's data when you open an account with LHFX and follow the reaction live.
Byline: LHFX Research
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