Market Analysis
USDTRY midweek: lira grinds lower, pair holds above 47.20, 2026-07-20
USDTRY sits at 47.20455 after a steady climb from Monday's open, with the ECB decision and Australian jobs the events left to watch Thursday.
2 min readAs of Wednesday's close, EURUSD trades at 1.14118. That marks a drop of roughly 15 pips from Monday's open at 1.1427. The week's high so far is 1.1449, printed Monday, and the low is 1.13961, set Tuesday. The range has been narrow, and the pair has clawed back toward the middle of it by Wednesday.
The dominant story this week has not been the euro. It has been the dollar's strength against the yen. USD/JPY hit a fresh 40-year high above 163 late Tuesday as equities, yields and oil all pushed higher. That broad dollar bid capped EURUSD early in the week and dragged it off Monday's 1.1449 high. There has been no scheduled euro-side release to counter it, which is why price drifted rather than trended.
The back-half calendar is empty of scheduled high-impact releases, so the yen story stays in the driver's seat. If USD/JPY extends its run into Thursday and Friday, the broad dollar bid can keep pressure on EURUSD and pin it below the week's midpoint. If that move stalls and the dollar unwinds, EURUSD has room to retest the upper end of this week's range. Watch GBP/JPY alongside it as a read on how far the yen weakness runs.
As of Wednesday morning, our book shows 52.1 percent long against 47.9 percent short on EURUSD. That is close to balanced, with a slight lean toward longs. The near-even split tells you consensus has no strong conviction midweek, which fits a pair stuck inside a tight range.
The 1.1400 round number is the pivot right now. Price reclaimed it Wednesday after Tuesday's dip to 1.13961. If EURUSD holds above 1.1400 into Thursday, the 1.14281 area from Tuesday's high is the next reference point overhead. If 1.1400 gives way, Tuesday's low near 1.1396 comes back into focus. If you want the live chart and the tools to trade either scenario, you can open an account with LHFX.
Byline: LHFX Research
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