Market Analysis
USDTRY midweek: lira grinds lower, pair holds above 47.20, 2026-07-20
USDTRY sits at 47.20455 after a steady climb from Monday's open, with the ECB decision and Australian jobs the events left to watch Thursday.
2 min readUSDMXN trades at 17.3946 as of Wednesday's close, down from Monday's open at 17.5391. That is a drop of roughly 145 pips across the first three sessions. The week's high sits at 17.5429, printed early Monday, and the low is 17.3721 from Tuesday. Price has been a slow grind lower, with each session closing beneath the last.
There is no scheduled Mexico or US data driving this move on the calendar. The tone came from broad dollar flows. USD/JPY ran to a fresh 40-year high above 163 as yields and oil gained, a risk-on backdrop that has favoured the peso against the dollar. The PBOC set its USD/CNY mid-point firmer than the Reuters estimate this morning, a reminder that dollar strength is uneven across the board.
The calendar for the back half of this week is empty of scheduled high-impact releases for this pair. That leaves USDMXN driven by cross-market flow rather than a single print. Watch the GBP/JPY and broader yen moves. If the risk-on tone that pushed USD/JPY to new highs holds into Thursday and Friday, the peso can keep grinding the dollar lower. If risk appetite fades and the dollar bid returns, USDMXN gets its footing back above 17.40.
As of Wednesday, 61.9 percent of positioning is long USDMXN and 38.1 percent is short. That is a clear lean toward dollar upside even as spot has fallen for three sessions. When the crowd is long into a falling market, it tells you consensus is fading the move rather than chasing it, and that stretched longs can add fuel if support gives way.
The Tuesday low at 17.3721 is the near-term line. If price closes below it, the round 17.35 handle comes into view. If 17.3721 holds and buyers reclaim 17.40, the mid-week grind lower stalls and Monday's open near 17.54 becomes the higher reference again. You can track these levels live on your USDMXN chart when you open an account with LHFX.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
