Market Analysis
XRPUSD week ahead: what to watch after choppy 2026-07-20
XRPUSD closed last week near 1.0864 after a mid-week rejection from 1.1272, and a thin macro calendar leaves price action and positioning in charge this week.
3 min readUSDJPY opened Monday at 161.876 and closed Friday at 162.391, a net gain of about 51 pips on the week. Price pushed to a Wednesday high of 162.541 before easing, with the pair holding a tight range between 161.675 and 162.541 across all five sessions. Broad US dollar strength kept the pair pinned near the top of that band into the weekend.
The single event to circle for the yen is Japan National Core CPI y/y, due Thursday 2026-07-23 at 23:30, with consensus at 1.6% against a prior 1.4%. A hotter print feeds the argument that domestic inflation is running warm enough to matter for policy, and it lands into a market already watching for intervention risk after thin holiday-driven liquidity in Tokyo.
Secondary themes cluster later in the week. Japan flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday 2026-07-24 at 00:30 carries a 55.0 forecast versus 54.9 prior. The Japan Trade Balance on Tuesday 2026-07-21 at 23:50 is seen at -0.54T against -0.09T. On the dollar side of the pair, US flash PMIs on Friday and Thursday US Unemployment Claims at 211K give traders read-throughs on the US side. The ECB Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday, forecast to hold at 2.40%, will move the broader dollar complex even if it does not touch the yen directly. Open an LHFX account to trade USDJPY through these prints.
If Japan Core CPI prints above the 1.6% forecast, the yen typically firms and the pair leans lower toward last week's low band near 161.675. If the print comes in soft, the yen tends to give ground and the pair can retest last week's high near 162.541. A dollar-driven move is also live: a hot US flash PMI reading on Friday would support the pair, while a cooler ECB tone can spill into dollar crosses such as EUR/USD and shift the broader backdrop USDJPY trades against.
Client positioning sits close to balanced, with 49.4% long and 50.6% short as of 2026-07-20. The near-even split says there is no strong consensus lean going into the week. That leaves either side vulnerable to a squeeze if the CPI or PMI numbers surprise, since neither the bulls nor the bears hold a clear crowd advantage.
Last week's high at 162.541 sits just under the 162.50 round number and marks the first reference on the upside. The weekly low at 161.675 is the obvious downside reference, with the Friday close of 162.391 acting as a pivot in between. These are reference levels for orientation, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
