Market Analysis
USDMXN week ahead: FOMC decision and retail sales, 2026-09-14
USDMXN closed last week at 16.9673 after a rejection from 17.0115, and the Fed decision on Wednesday sets the tone for the next five sessions.
4 min readUSDCAD opened last Monday at 1.38348 and closed Friday at 1.38718. That is a net gain of about 37 pips, roughly 0.27 percent on the week. The path was not straight. Tuesday sold down to 1.37594, the lowest print of the week, and the pair spent Wednesday recovering that ground. Thursday and Friday did the work, with Friday tagging 1.38837 before settling a little under it. Forexlive's technical note on 11 September framed exactly that behaviour: the pair extended higher but stalled at trendline resistance.
The dominant theme is the stall itself. This bundle carries no high-impact scheduled releases for the five sessions starting 14 September, so there is no single data point to hang the week on. That changes what drives the tape. Without a calendar anchor, the pair trades on dollar tone and on how it handles the 1.38837 area that capped it on Friday. A level that rejects price twice tends to attract more attention than one that rejects it once, and you now have one rejection on the board.
The secondary theme comes out of Asia. The PBOC set its USD/CNY reference rate above the Reuters estimate on Monday morning, a weaker yuan fix than the market looked for. A fix that lands away from expectation usually feeds through to broad dollar positioning during the Asian session, and USDCAD is a dollar pair before it is anything else. Watch how the first hours of Monday London trade treat Friday's 1.38718 close. Open an LHFX account to trade USDCAD this week if you want to follow that open in a live book.
If the dollar holds its Friday bid and USDCAD closes a session above 1.38837, the trendline that capped last week is broken and the round number at 1.3900 becomes the next obvious reference. If price probes that high again and fails, the range that defined most of last week, roughly 1.3804 to 1.38837, stays intact and Tuesday's 1.37594 low sits at the bottom of it.
A broad dollar move should show up elsewhere at the same time. If USDCAD grinds higher while EUR/USD holds its ground, the move is more a Canadian dollar story than a dollar story, and it tends to be the slower of the two. If both pairs move together in dollar-positive fashion, the follow-through is usually cleaner.
A third case is the quiet one. With no scheduled catalyst in the bundle, the week can simply compress inside last week's range. In that case the 1.3804 area, where Monday and Wednesday both closed, becomes the pivot that decides which half of the range price spends its time in.
As of 14 September, retail positioning sits at 51.6 percent long and 48.4 percent short. That is close to flat. There is no crowded consensus to squeeze here, which matters: sharp reversals in this pair often need a lopsided book to feed on, and this book is not lopsided. A near even split going into a week with a thin calendar argues for range respect rather than a violent directional unwind. If the skew widens meaningfully after a break of 1.38837, that shift is worth more than the current reading.
The reference points come straight out of last week's range. The 1.38837 high is the trendline area that stopped Friday's advance. The 1.37594 low from Tuesday marks the other end. Between them, 1.3804 is where price closed on both Monday and Wednesday, which makes it the most obvious pivot, and above the week's high, 1.3900 is the nearest round number. Treat all four as reference levels rather than entry signals: they mark where last week's supply and demand actually printed.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
