Silver opened the week at 63.484 and closed at 64.186. The metal printed a weekly high of 66.766 on Wednesday and a weekly low of 62.95 on Monday. Net, price finished roughly 0.7 higher on the week, about 1.1 percent, but that close hides a full round trip. Buyers ran price more than three dollars off the Monday low, then sellers dragged it back down through Thursday and Friday.
The economic calendar for the week was light, so the tape was driven by dollar flows and positioning. The PBOC set its USD/CNY reference rate above the Reuters estimate on Friday, a weaker yuan fix that points to a firmer dollar. A firmer dollar tends to press dollar-denominated metals lower. That fit the Friday session, where silver could not hold above 64.695 and slid to 64.186 into the close.
The rejection at Wednesday's 66.766 high mattered as much as the fix. Once price failed to build above 66, each rally set a lower high. Thursday's fade back under 64.2 confirmed sellers were in control heading into the weekend.
The bundle carries no scheduled high-impact events for the upcoming week, so watch the dollar and the daily PBOC fix for direction. If the yuan reference rate keeps coming in weaker than the Reuters estimate, the dollar stays supported and silver faces headwinds. If the fix tightens back toward estimate, that pressure eases and the metal has more room to retest the upper half of last week's range.
LHFX client positioning shows 63 percent long against 37 percent short as of 14 August. That is a clear long skew. Consensus is leaning for a bounce after the fade, but a crowded long book can act as fuel for further downside if stops below the weekly low get triggered.
The Monday low at 62.95 is the first floor. If price closes below it, buyers lose their most recent line in the sand and the range opens up. On the upside, 64.695 capped Friday. A daily close back above there puts the mid-range near 65.265 back in play, and gold traders can watch Gold for confirmation of a broader metals bid before you commit, something you can track from an LHFX account.
Byline: LHFX Research
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