Market Analysis
EURUSD weekly: euro drops 111 pips to 1.14817, 2026-09-14
EURUSD gave up 111 pips over the week of 14 September 2026, with the whole loss landing in a single Wednesday session that broke 1.1500.
4 min readGBPUSD opened Monday at 1.33858 and closed Friday at 1.34545, a net gain of roughly 69 pips on the week. The bulk of that move came Wednesday, when price ran from a 1.33803 low to a 1.35577 high before fading. The pair gave back part of the rally into Thursday and Friday, closing the week off its highs.
UK CPI on Wednesday, 2026-07-22 at 06:00 is the centre of gravity. Headline CPI y/y is forecast at 2.7%, down from 2.8% previously, with core CPI y/y seen at 2.5% against 2.6% prior. A softer print firms the case for further Bank of England easing and typically weighs on the pound. A hotter print does the opposite.
Two other UK releases bracket the CPI print. Tuesday, 2026-07-21 at 06:00 brings the Claimant Count Change, forecast at 28.3K versus 31.2K previously, alongside the Average Earnings Index 3m/y at 4.5%. Friday, 2026-07-24 delivers UK Retail Sales m/m at 06:00, forecast at -0.1%, and flash PMIs at 08:30, with manufacturing seen at 52.1 and services at 49.4. The ECB rate decision on Thursday, 2026-07-23 at 12:15, forecast to hold at 2.40%, adds cross-market volatility through the euro.
If Wednesday's UK CPI prints hotter than the 2.7% forecast, the pound tends to catch a bid, and a move back toward last week's 1.35577 high comes into focus. If CPI comes in cooler, the pound tends to soften, and the prior 1.33803 low is the reference on the downside. Tuesday's labour data can set the tone early: a weaker Claimant Count with firmer earnings pulls in two directions and can widen the intraday range. Thursday's ECB decision may move EUR/USD sharply, and cross flows can spill into cable even without a UK catalyst.
Retail positioning sits at 50.1% long and 49.9% short as of 2026-07-20. That is close to balanced, with only a slight lean toward longs. A near-even skew tells you the crowd has no strong conviction into the CPI print, so the reaction to Wednesday's number is more likely to drive direction than any existing positioning imbalance.
Last week's 1.35577 high is the upper reference. A close above it early in the week puts the round 1.3600 area in view. On the downside, the 1.33803 low from Wednesday's session is the first reference, with the 1.33419 low from the prior Monday sitting just beneath it. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals. Open an LHFX account to trade GBPUSD this week.
Byline: LHFX Research
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