EURUSD opened Monday at 1.1427 and closed Friday at 1.13695, a net loss of roughly 57 pips on the week. Most of the damage came Thursday, when price broke from a 1.14006 high down to a 1.13635 low and closed at 1.1376, the widest range of the five sessions on the heaviest volume.
The Federal Reserve is the centre of gravity. The Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC Statement and press conference all land Wednesday, 29 July. The rate is forecast to hold at 3.75%, unchanged from the previous 3.75%, so the reaction will hang on the tone of the statement and Powell's answers rather than the number itself.
Thursday, 30 July stacks the heavier data. US Advance GDP q/q is forecast at 2.3% against a prior 2.0%, and Core PCE Price Index m/m is forecast at 0.1% after 0.3%. On the euro side, German Prelim CPI m/m is forecast at 0.7% Thursday, and the euro area CPI Flash Estimate y/y prints Friday at a forecast 2.9%. Open an LHFX account to trade EURUSD through this run of events.
If the FOMC statement reads more hawkish than the held rate implies, the dollar tends to firm and EURUSD comes under pressure back toward last week's low. If the tone leans dovish or Powell softens the outlook, the euro has room to recover the ground lost Thursday. A cooler than forecast Core PCE on Thursday would typically support the euro, while a hotter GDP print pulls the other way, so the two can offset inside the same session. For a cleaner read on the dollar leg without the euro-specific data noise, watch AUD/USD around the same events.
Sentiment sits at 52% long and 48% short. That is close to balanced with only a slight lean toward longs, which tells you there is no crowded consensus going into the Fed. A near-even book leaves room for price to move in either direction without one side being forced out en masse.
Last week's low at 1.13635 is the first reference point on the downside, with Friday's close at 1.13695 sitting just above it. On the upside, the week's high at 1.1449 marks the ceiling that held, and the round 1.1400 level sits in between as a marker either side may test early. These are reference levels for context, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
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