ETHUSD week ahead: a 3.6% drop to digest, 2026-11-02
How last week left ETHUSD
ETHUSD opened the week at 2328.47 on Monday 2026-10-26 and closed Friday 2026-10-30 at 2244.01. That is a net loss of 84.46 points, or 3.63%. The damage was done in one session: Thursday 2026-10-29 opened at 2358.17 and closed at 2251.63 after dipping to 2231.50, wiping out the gains built up over the first half of the week. Friday added a lower low at 2172.52 before buyers dragged the close back above 2240.
What this week is about
There is no scheduled high-impact release in this week's calendar for ETHUSD. That matters more than it sounds. With nothing on the diary to reset the tape, the market has to price the new week off the damage already on the chart and off the dollar tone around it. The first input arrived before the European open on Monday 2026-11-02, when the PBOC set its USD/CNY reference rate above the Reuters consensus estimate. A fix on the firm side of consensus is a stronger dollar signal, and firmer dollar sessions have typically been the ones where risk assets like ether struggle to rebuild.
The secondary theme is participation. Daily volume stayed close to 298,000 on both the Thursday break and the Friday low, so the selloff was not a thin-liquidity flush that reverses on its own. Without a data catalyst, follow-through becomes a function of whether that volume keeps showing up on the offer. Watch the broader crypto complex for the lead, since ether rarely moves alone when there is no asset-specific news. If you want to trade ETHUSD through this week, you can open an LHFX account and follow it on live pricing.
Scenarios for the week
If the dollar keeps firming after Monday's yuan fix and ETHUSD fails to reclaim Friday's open at 2251.60 early in the week, the Friday low at 2172.52 becomes the obvious reference, with the round 2150 handle sitting just beneath it. If instead the dollar impulse fades and price holds above Friday's close, the first real test is the Thursday breakdown zone between 2251 and 2290, which capped the market on the way down.
A third path: a sharp move in Bitcoin drags the complex with it. Ether has been the higher-beta side of that pair in both directions, so a bitcoin-led bounce would likely see ETHUSD test the 2321.66 Wednesday low before anything heavier, while a bitcoin-led break would put the 2172.52 area under pressure faster than the calendar alone would suggest.
Positioning into the new week
LHFX client positioning as of 2026-11-02 shows 62% long against 38% short. That is a clear long skew into a week that just produced a 3.63% decline. Retail books are leaning into the dip rather than following it. A crowded long side means stop clusters sit below Friday's low, and a break of 2172.52 has more fuel underneath it than the headline move would imply. It also means a recovery has less fresh buying power behind it, because much of that buying has already been committed.
Levels to watch
Last week's high at 2389.99, printed on Wednesday, is the upper boundary of the range and the level that would need to go for the October downtrend to be in question. Below, Friday's low at 2172.52 is the line that defines whether the selloff was a one-session event or the start of something extended. Between them, the Friday close at 2244.01 and the 2251.63 Thursday close form a narrow pivot band worth marking on the chart. These are reference levels for structure, not entry signals, and they tell you where the market has already shown it cares, not where it is going.
Byline: LHFX Research
Risk disclaimer. CFD trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Leverage works both ways and can amplify losses beyond your initial deposit. The analysis above is general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. LHFX is regulated by the FSC Mauritius and the FSCA in South Africa.
