Market Analysis
USDZAR midweek: where we are at 16.2253, week of 2026-09-14
USDZAR sits at 16.2253 on Wednesday, up 0.34 percent from Monday's open, with Tuesday's 16.3479 high still capping the move.
3 min readETHUSD trades at 2404.33 as of Wednesday's close, down 71.26 points or 2.9% from Monday's 2475.59 open. The week's high came in the first session at 2613.48. The low landed on Tuesday at 2357.34, a 256 point spread in two days. Wednesday itself has been quiet by comparison, a 2387.35 to 2410.01 band on volume of 75,042 against roughly 298,000 on each of the two prior sessions.
The selling was mechanical rather than headline driven. Monday's push to 2613.48 failed and Tuesday reversed the entire move, closing at 2396.71 after trading down to 2357.34. Wednesday's flow has been about the retest of broken resistance near 2,470, with the shrinking exchange supply story doing the bullish talking. That narrative is unproven on price, as the staking and ETF outflow coverage itself concedes. Traders parked in Bitcoin have the same problem: no crypto specific catalyst sits on this week's calendar, so the complex is trading off the rate path.
The Federal Funds Rate decision lands Wednesday at 18:00, with the forecast at 4.00% against 3.75% previously, followed by FOMC projections and the press conference at 18:30. A hike that arrives with a softer projection path would take pressure off risk assets, and 2404.33 becomes the pivot to hold. A hawkish set of projections pushes Tuesday's 2357.34 low straight back into view. Second on the list is the BOJ Policy Rate on Friday at 02:30, forecast below 1.25% versus below 1.00% previously. A Japanese hike tightens global funding conditions, and that is the channel through which crypto usually feels it. Thursday is thinner for this instrument, though US Unemployment Claims at 207K forecast and the Philly Fed index at 31.3 against 47.4 previously can move dollar risk appetite around the New York open.
As of 06:05 on 16 September, 62% of positioning is long and 38% is short. That is a crowded book on the wrong side of a 2.9% week. Longs that were added into Monday's 2613.48 print are underwater, and a hawkish FOMC leaves that cohort as the supply of stop orders below 2357.34. The flip side is the same skew cutting the other way if the statement reads dovish: forced covering is thin when the book is already long.
Wednesday's entire range has sat on the 2400 handle, with 2410.01 capping every attempt higher. Hold 2400 through the statement and the 2470 zone that acted as resistance earlier this week is the next obvious reference. Lose it and Tuesday's 2357.34 low is the first test, with nothing structural above it to slow a move. You can track how ETHUSD reacts to the 18:00 print with live pricing through an LHFX account.
Byline: LHFX Research
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