BTCUSD opened Monday at 64641.77 and closed the week at 64042.39, a net drop of roughly 600 points, or about 0.9 percent. Price ran up to a Tuesday high of 66878.48 before sellers took control into the back half of the week, with Friday marking the weekly low at 63630.55. The turn lower on Wednesday and Thursday set the tone, leaving the week finishing near its lows.
The Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Statement land Wednesday, 2026-07-29, at 18:00, with the rate consensus at 3.75 percent, unchanged from the prior 3.75 percent. The FOMC Press Conference follows at 18:30. For a risk asset that trades on liquidity expectations, the tone of that press conference tends to matter more than the rate line itself. Open an LHFX account to trade BTCUSD through this week's central bank calendar via the LHFX account opening page.
The week does not end there. The BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement arrive Friday, 2026-07-31, at 02:30, with the outlook report and press conference to follow. US Advance GDP q/q, forecast at 2.3 percent, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast at 0.1 percent, both print Thursday at 12:30 and feed directly into rate expectations. Australian CPI y/y on Wednesday at 01:30, forecast at 4.0 percent, rounds out the high-impact block.
If the FOMC statement or press conference reads more dovish than the market expects, risk appetite often lifts and BTCUSD can push back toward last week's mid-range. If the message leans hawkish and pushes back on rate-cut timing, the pressure that closed last week near its lows can extend. A hotter Core PCE print on Thursday would tighten financial conditions expectations and typically weighs on crypto, while a cooler read tends to support it. Correlated crypto moves can show up quickly in ETHUSD, so watch whether the broader complex confirms or diverges from BTCUSD.
LHFX client positioning shows 53.4 percent long against 46.6 percent short as of 2026-07-27. That is a mild long skew rather than a strong consensus. With the book only slightly tilted toward longs into a week carrying an FOMC and a BOJ decision, there is no crowded one-way bet to unwind, which can leave price freer to react to the actual prints.
Last week's high at 66878.48 marks the upper reference. A move back above it early in the week would put the round 67000 area in view. On the downside, Friday's low at 63630.55 is the first reference; a decisive break below it opens room toward the round 63000 handle. These are reference levels for tracking price behaviour, not entry signals.
Byline: LHFX Research
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