AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and extended its losses for the third consecutive session around $0.6285 on Thursday.
However, the pair found some support as the US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and growing concerns over a potential recession.
Despite this, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction following a sharp drop in Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and rising global trade tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
AUD/USD Pressured by Trade Disputes and Weak Inflation Expectations
The Australian Dollar came under fresh selling pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that Australia would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. This decision heightened trade concerns and weighed on market sentiment.
At the same time, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations dropped sharply to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, the lowest level since April 2024. This unexpected decline raised concerns about inflation in Australia, making it harder for the AUD to recover.
Adding to the pressure, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not respond with its own tariffs against the US.He explained that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and push inflation even higher.
This decision left the Australian Dollar more exposed to trade uncertainties, adding to its weakness in the market.
US Dollar Remains Subdued Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar struggled as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50. Traders analyzed the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that inflation slowed in February.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner than expected. Monthly headline inflation dropped to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January, while core inflation also eased to 0.2%, missing the expected 0.3%. The weaker inflation numbers reduced demand for the US Dollar, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair.
However, market sentiment turned negative after the European Union (EU) responded to US tariffs with its own measures. The US had imposed a 25% levy on European steel and aluminum, and in retaliation, the EU announced tariffs on $26 billion worth of US goods.
This move added to global trade uncertainty. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China remained unresolved, with reports indicating that negotiations between the two countries had stalled, further weighing on market confidence.
RBA Policy Outlook and Market Focus on Key US Data
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its policy outlook, especially after recent economic data reduced expectations for more rate cuts.
Australia’s economy showed unexpected strength, with growth surpassing forecasts and picking up for the first time in over a year.
However, the RBA remains cautious, as global trade uncertainties and weakening consumer confidence could still influence future policy decisions.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims. These reports could offer new clues about the US economy and impact the direction of the US Dollar.
If the data comes in stronger or weaker than expected, it may create market volatility and influence the AUD/USD pair in the short term.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is struggling to gain momentum, with AUD/USD trading at $0.6296, down marginally as traders assess shifting market sentiment.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at $0.6327, signaling potential downside risks in the near term. Despite attempts at recovery, the 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping a lid on bullish attempts.
If AUD/USD remains below $0.6327, sellers could push the pair toward immediate support at $0.6268, with a break lower exposing $0.6233 and $0.6198 as next downside targets.
However, should buyers regain control, resistance stands at $0.6355, followed by $0.6383 and $0.6407, which will need to be cleared for a shift in momentum.
Macroeconomic factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk sentiment in global markets, will play a crucial role in the Aussie dollar’s direction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on monetary policy also remains in focus, with any hawkish signals potentially providing support to the currency.
For now, AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers targeting key support levels. A sustained move below $0.6268 could accelerate losses, while a break above resistance at $0.6355 would indicate a potential reversal.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair remained under pressure, falling to around 147.58 on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) as concerns over trade tariffs and growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) bolstered demand for the safe-haven currency.
Meanwhile, the USD remained weak amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year, adding further downside pressure on the pair.
USD/JPY Pressured by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations and Trade Concerns
The Japanese Yen found strong support as market participants anticipated that the BoJ would continue raising interest rates to curb inflation. With Japanese firms agreeing to wage hikes for the third consecutive year, consumer spending is expected to rise, further fueling inflation.
This scenario increases the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the BoJ, pushing the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond near its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that long-term interest rates would be left to market forces, reinforcing expectations of higher yields.
On the trade front, US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports heightened global trade tensions. His warning of reciprocal tariffs on other countries increased uncertainty, leading investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
Market concerns over potential retaliatory measures from the European Union and Canada further weighed on sentiment, benefiting the JPY.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
The US Dollar remained subdued near a multi-month low, struggling against the backdrop of growing expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Traders increased their bets on multiple rate cuts this year, especially after weaker-than-expected US inflation data. On the data front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that headline inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in February from 3% in the previous month.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 3.1% from 3.3%, missing market expectations of 3.2%.
This softer inflation data reinforced market speculation that the Fed may need to ease monetary policy to prevent an economic slowdown.
The outlook for lower interest rates reduced the USD’s appeal, contributing to the ongoing weakness of the USD/JPY pair. Investors now turn their focus to the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for further clues on the Fed’s policy direction.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is holding steady at 147.609, up slightly as the market weighs broader risk sentiment and central bank expectations.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at 148.390, signaling a potential downside move if sellers gain control. The 50-day EMA at 147.667 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping further upside limited for now.
If USD/JPY breaks below immediate support at 147.285, the next downside targets are 146.547 and 145.969, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
However, a move back above 148.390 could shift momentum in favor of the bulls, with resistance at 149.124 and 149.600 standing as key hurdles before the psychologically significant 150.167 level.
For now, USD/JPY remains bearish below 147.925, with traders targeting key support levels. A sustained move below 147.285 could accelerate losses, while a break above 148.390 would indicate a potential shift in sentiment toward further upside.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, retreating near the 1.2914 level.
The pair is now hovering around 1.2942 as the US Dollar gains temporary support ahead of key inflation data from the United States.
However, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, due at 12:30 GMT, is set to be a major driver for market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance.
Investors remain cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that the central bank could maintain its restrictive policy for longer if inflation does not ease as expected.
Market forecasts suggest that headline inflation may slow to 2.9% from 3.0% in January, while core CPI is expected to rise by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3%.
If inflation cools, expectations for a Fed rate cut in May could grow, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 42% chance—up from 10.4% last month.
However, higher-than-expected inflation could reduce these chances, strengthening the US Dollar and limiting the Pound’s gains.
GBP/USD Supported by BoE Rate Expectations and Upcoming UK Economic Data
Despite some pressure on GBP/USD, the Pound is still supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep its interest rate at 4.5% during next week’s policy meeting.
Several BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, have stressed the need for a cautious approach to reducing restrictive policies, pointing to ongoing inflation concerns.
However, BoE member Catherine Mann has suggested a more aggressive approach to easing due to the volatility in global financial markets.
Moreover, traders are keeping an eye on the UK’s upcoming economic data, including the January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, scheduled for release on Friday.
The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in January, down from 0.4% in December, while factory data is likely to show a decline.
Market Uncertainty and Key Data Events Ahead for GBP/USD
Adding to market uncertainty is former US President Donald Trump’s position on trade policies. His recent threats to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports caused concern among investors.
However, the decision was reversed after talks with Canadian officials. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that Trump’s tariff threats are often used as bargaining tactics in trade negotiations. Still, the unpredictability of these policies continues to affect market sentiment.
Looking ahead, GBP/USD traders will closely monitor the US inflation report and upcoming UK economic data for further direction.
However, the softer inflation print from the US could weaken the Dollar and support GBP/USD, while strong inflation figures might reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, limiting the Pound’s upside potential.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.29285, showing slight downward pressure but maintaining stability above the key pivot point at $1.29094. The 50-day EMA at $1.29086 reinforces this level, suggesting that staying above it could keep the pair in a bullish zone.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at $1.29655, followed by $1.30114 and $1.30606. A break above $1.29655 could spark further upside momentum, with traders eyeing the psychological $1.30 level as a potential inflection point. However, failing to surpass resistance may lead to continued range-bound movement.
Support levels lie at $1.28691, $1.28206, and $1.27756. A drop below $1.28691 could indicate renewed selling pressure, possibly pushing the pair toward $1.28206, where stronger demand could emerge. The 50-day EMA at $1.29086 is a key short-term threshold—if breached, it could shift sentiment to the downside.
A buy strategy above $1.29094 is preferred, targeting $1.29788 while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.28740 to mitigate risk.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained steady, holding above the $2,900 mark as investors stayed cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
However, the upcoming inflation data will help determine the Fed's rate decisions, which will affect gold prices in the coming weeks.
Moreover, the risk-off mood in the market also helped keep gold prices high. The global market sentiment has been flashing red on the day amid combination of factors.
Gold Gains Support Amid US Tariff Impact on Steel and Aluminum
Gold also found support as trade tensions escalated following President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on US steel and aluminum imports, which took effect on Wednesday.
The tariff, impacting a broad range of industrial and consumer goods, fueled concerns over a economic slowdown.
Initially, Trump proposed increasing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s trade restrictions.
However, following negotiations, the US administration retracted the proposed hike, maintaining the 25% rate.
Therefore, the trade uncertainty has fueled concerns of a global economic downturn, further reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
US Dollar Stabilizes as Traders Await Key Inflation Data and Job Market Trends
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained modest traction but remained near the four-month low recorded last week.
Despite the dollar’s slight recovery, gold prices held steady, supported by risk aversion amid economic uncertainty.
On the data front, the US job openings increased by 232,000 to 7.740 million in January, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.
However, revisions showed fewer vacancies than previously estimated from January to December 2024. Despite strong hiring numbers, small business confidence dipped for the third consecutive month, reflecting concerns over trade policy volatility and fiscal uncertainties.
Traders are now closely watching the upcoming US inflation data, as it could influence the Fed’s rate decision. However, the lower-than-expected CPI reading may boost expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher. Conversely, stronger inflation data could strengthen the US dollar and cap gold’s.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,918.48, up 0.02%, as it hovers near its pivot point at $2,919.09. The metal remains in a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive move amid shifting market sentiment.
The 50-day EMA at $2,908.68 suggests moderate downside pressure, with short-term selling opportunities emerging below the pivot.
On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $2,930.55, with additional barriers at $2,942.01 and $2,954.43. A break above these levels could trigger bullish momentum, targeting new highs. However, failure to surpass $2,930.55 may reinforce a bearish outlook.
Support lies at $2,902.12, with further downside levels at $2,891.50 and $2,880.40. A drop below $2,902.12 would confirm increased selling pressure, potentially accelerating losses toward lower support zones.
The pivot point at $2,919.09 serves as a key threshold—trading below it favors a bearish bias, while sustaining above it may shift momentum toward the bulls.
Given the technical setup, a sell position below $2,919 is favored, targeting $2,902 for a take-profit level, with a stop-loss placed at $2,930. Gold’s near-term movement will largely depend on U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve signals, which could sway sentiment and drive volatility.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well bid around the 1.0926 level.
However, the bullish bias can be attributed to growing concerns surrounding the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump’s leadership, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Another factor supporting the EUR/USD pair is optimism about Germany’s defense spending deal. Investors hope debt restructuring will boost defense spending and stimulate Eurozone growth, potentially influencing the ECB’s interest rate stance.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Recession Fears and Trump’s Tariff Agenda
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is underperforming, mainly due to concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies could increase the risk of a US recession.
His "America First" approach is seen as potentially driving up inflation, which could hurt consumer purchasing power already impacted by high inflation.
These worries grew after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended Trump’s policies in a CBS interview on Tuesday, acknowledging they could lead to a recession but arguing they are necessary for the country’s future.
Looking forward, traders are waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
This inflation data is important because it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next actions on interest rates.
Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in January. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecasted to ease to 3.2% from 3.3%.
These numbers could impact speculation about future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would affect the USD.
Euro Strengthened by German Economic Optimism and Ukrainian Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction over the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the German defense spending deal.
Investors are hopeful that a clearance for German debt restructuring could increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth in the Eurozone.
The upcoming meeting between key German political figures is seen as pivotal in determining the course of this potential fiscal policy shift.
If successful, it could lead to a reassessment of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance on interest rates.
Moreover, positive developments on the geopolitical front, including Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire, have boosted the Euro’s appeal.
With US officials in Saudi Arabia facilitating peace talks, optimism about stability in the region has given further support to the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD is struggling to stop its declines and remain under pressure around 1.4407.
The pair faces downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns that uncertainty over tariff policies could push the US economy into recession.
Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential policy direction.
US Economic Uncertainty Weighs on the US Dollar
The global market sentiment turned cautious after former President Donald Trump said the economy is in a "transition period," hinting at a possible slowdown. Investors saw this as a warning of economic trouble.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is weak, staying around 103.80. Meanwhile, US job data for February was weaker than expected, increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
According to LSEG data, traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June rate cut fully priced in. On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 151,000 in February, missing the forecast of 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised downward to 125,000 from 143,000. This weak labor market data adds to recession fears and puts further pressure on the US Dollar.
Impact of Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions
On the other hand, the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will start on Wednesday as planned.
US steelmakers have urged Trump to maintain these tariffs, but businesses reliant on these materials may face increased costs, further impacting economic stability.
Meanwhile, Trump also commented on trade relations with Ukraine, mentioning that his administration is considering lifting an intelligence pause and reviewing tariff measures against Russia. These geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market caution, further weakening USD sentiment.
Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision and USD/CAD Outlook
On the Canadian front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming March meeting on Wednesday.
Analysts at CIBC predict that the BoC will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with further cuts likely if trade uncertainty persists.
Hence, the rate cut by the BoC could limit USD/CAD’s downside, but broader US economic concerns are likely to keep the pair under pressure.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US CPI data release on Wednesday, as it could shape expectations for the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions.
If inflation remains subdued, it could reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts, adding further pressure on the USD and influencing USD/CAD’s movement.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44456, edging up 0.03% as buyers maintain control above the $1.44097 pivot point. The pair remains in an uptrend, bolstered by a weaker Canadian dollar and sustained strength in the U.S. dollar.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43654 is providing strong dynamic support, reinforcing bullish momentum. If USD/CAD continues higher, immediate resistance is seen at $1.44735, followed by $1.45426 and $1.45986, signaling further upside potential.
On the downside, support at $1.43537 remains critical—losing this level could push the pair toward $1.43003, with further declines targeting $1.42409. However, as long as USD/CAD holds above the $1.44097 pivot point, the short-term trend favors buyers.
From a trading perspective, a buy entry above $1.44097 is favored, targeting $1.44739, with a stop loss at $1.43773. Key drivers include Fed rate expectations, oil price fluctuations, and overall risk sentiment in global markets.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) continued to rise, reaching an intra-day high of $2,903. This upward movement came after a period of uncertainty in the markets.
However, the uncertainty was mainly driven by concerns over the potential effects of former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. As a result, many investors decided to move their money into safer assets like gold to protect their wealth.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Support Gold Prices
Moreover, the ongoing weakness in the US dollar further supported gold prices. However, the greenback faced selling pressure due to growing speculation that a tariff-induced economic slowdown might push the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement multiple rate cuts this year. Hence, the lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold, boosting its appeal.
Geopolitical Risks and Trade Tensions Drive Gold Prices Higher
On the geopolitical front, the former President Trump’s 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, with even more tariffs expected to be imposed on April 2.
These protectionist measures raised concerns about a possible US recession, which boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, the signs that the US labor market is weakening raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates again in June.
This could keep US Treasury yields low and put pressure on the US dollar, which would likely increase demand for gold.
Apart from this, market attention shifted to rising geopolitical tensions, especially between Ukraine and Russia. However, the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and former President Trump ended in diplomatic conflict, leading to the US suspending all military aid to Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine carried out a large-scale drone attack on Moscow, with Russian air defenses shooting down 11 drones that were targeting key locations near the Kremlin.
These escalating tensions and the growing uncertainty in the region added more pressure on gold prices, pushing them higher as investors sought safety.
China's Economic Weakness and US Data Watch Fuel Gold Price Support
Moreover, China’s latest economic data added to market jitters. The Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.7% year-over-year in February, exceeding expectations and marking the first consumer deflation since January 2024.
The decline was partly due to weak demand after the Spring Festival, which raised worries about China’s economic outlook and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
Therefore, the decline in China’s CPI raised concerns about the economy, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This led to higher gold prices as investors sought protection from economic uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,895.25, hovering just below the $2,900 pivot point, signaling indecision in the market. Despite a minor decline, gold remains within a narrow range as traders await key catalysts.
The 50-day EMA at $2,909.07 acts as immediate resistance, aligning closely with short-term price action. A sustained break above this level could push gold toward $2,915.39, with further upside targets at $2,930.55 and $2,954.43.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,880.20, and a breach of this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing gold to $2,858.99 and potentially $2,838.41. The broader trend remains bearish below $2,900, with a firm rejection of resistance reinforcing downside risk.
For traders, the technical setup favors selling below $2,899, targeting $2,880, with a stop loss at $2,913. Short-term sentiment hinges on macroeconomic developments, particularly inflation data and Federal Reserve rate expectations, which could dictate the next move.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite deepening deflationary concerns in China, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained traction against the US Dollar (USD), trading around the 0.6289 level.
However, the weaker US Dollar and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have provided support to the AUD/USD pair, even as trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist.
China's Deepening Deflationary Pressures
On the data front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.7% year-over-year in February, worse than the expected 0.5% decline.
This is the first time China has experienced consumer deflation since January 2024, mainly due to weaker demand after the Spring Festival.
Monthly CPI inflation also fell to -0.2%, showing low price pressures in the Chinese economy. Since China is Australia’s biggest trading partner, its slowdown is affecting the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Finds Support Amid Weaker US Dollar and Rate Cut Speculation
Despite these headwinds, the AUD/USD pair found support as the US Dollar struggled. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains subdued around 103.80, as concerns over tariff policy uncertainty and weaker US labor market data have reinforced expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
On the data front, the February’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed only 151,000 new jobs, missing the 160,000 forecast and adding to speculation that the Fed will ease monetary policy.
Traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June cut fully priced in. The Federal Reserve’s blackout period ahead of its March 19 meeting has limited further guidance, keeping market focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Australia’s Economic Developments and RBA Outlook
At home, Australia’s economic data has been mixed. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose 4% in March to 95.9, reaching its highest level in three years.
The improved sentiment is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate cut in February and easing cost-of-living pressures.
However, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield declined to 4.39% as escalating global trade tensions dampened investor appetite for risk.
The RBA’s policy outlook remains a focal point, especially after stronger-than-expected economic growth reduced expectations of additional rate cuts.
The latest RBA Meeting Minutes signaled a cautious stance, clarifying that February’s rate cut does not indicate a broader easing cycle.
Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
Apart from this, trade tensions between the US and China are still unresolved, adding to the uncertainty. China started new tariffs on some US farm products on Monday after the US raised tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%.
China also put a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and other farm goods, making global trade more uncertain.
Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on Wednesday, despite calls from US businesses for postponement.
These protectionist measures have heightened concerns over a global economic slowdown, influencing market sentiment and adding to volatility in currency markets.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the US CPI release for further clues on inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy direction.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62633, slipping 0.05% as the market struggles to find bullish momentum. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the pivot point of $0.62829, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $0.63087 serves as immediate resistance, reinforcing downward pressure on the Australian dollar. A break above this level could push the pair toward $0.63287, with further resistance at $0.63650 and $0.64051.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62465. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to $0.62201, with deeper losses potentially extending to $0.61875. The overall structure remains weak, with sellers controlling price action as risk sentiment continues to weigh on the currency.
For traders, the technical setup suggests a sell position below $0.62826, targeting $0.62468, with a stop loss at $0.63092.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extend its upward trend and remained bullish around above 1.0875 level.
However, the shared currency has gained momentum amid positive Eurozone data. Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the signs of an economic slowdown, was seen as another key factor that supported the EUR/USD pair.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index Jumps to -2.9 in March
On the data front, the latest Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March surged to -2.9, a sharp improvement from February's reading of -12.7.
This unexpected uptick in investor sentiment signals a recovery in confidence about the economic outlook for the region, particularly in Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
According to Sentix, Germany’s industrial sector saw an impressive boost in January, with industrial output rising by 2% month-on-month (MoM), beating expectations of a 1.5% increase.
Sentix described investor sentiment in Germany as “downright euphoric,” suggesting a growing belief that the country’s economy is on a positive trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current situation indicator also showed progress, increasing to -21.8 from -25.5 in February. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the region’s recovery, supported by Germany’s strong economic performance.
Therefore, the improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, especially driven by Germany's strong economic performance, boosts investor optimism, supporting EUR/USD gains as confidence in the Eurozone rises.
Weak US Data and Trump’s Uncertain Economic Agenda Weigh on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar faced downward pressure as the market digested disappointing economic data and increasing concerns over President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Data showing a 15-month low in US Consumer Confidence, a drop in ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February have raised doubts about the strength of the US economy.
These indicators suggest that the US may be headed for a slowdown, adding to worries over the effectiveness of Trump’s "America First" policies.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that his administration’s policies would result in short-term economic shocks, reinforcing fears of potential disruption to the US economy. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and tax policies have created uncertainty, leading investors to scale back expectations for US growth in the near term.
As a result, market participants are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its policy easing cycle, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June meeting rising to 82%, up from 54% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda and its effects on the broader economy.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB’s Caution on Interest Rates
Despite the positive data from the Eurozone, the Euro is facing some challenges in the short term. After strong gains last week, traders are taking profits, which is putting some pressure on the currency.
Additionally, there are concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future actions. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but they did not commit to further rate cuts or a broader expansion of monetary policy.
ECB officials, including Mario Centeno, have indicated that the Eurozone is moving towards "normalizing" its monetary policy, with inflation decreasing and getting closer to the ECB’s target. These factors are causing some caution around the Euro’s near-term performance.
On the other hand, Germany’s move to extend its borrowing limit and establish a EUR500 billion infrastructure fund for defense spending has forced traders to revise expectations for ECB rate cuts. As a result, the Euro’s bullish momentum has been capped, although sentiment remains generally positive.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to break its consolidating phase and remains under pressure around the $2,901 level in early European trading session on Monday.
The metal is struggling to gain strong momentum despite support from a weaker US dollar and ongoing global uncertainties.
However, the concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the risk of a global trade war continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious, and buying interest has been limited.
Meanwhile, the weaker US jobs report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
Hence, the softer labor market and anticipated policy easing have weighed on the US dollar, keeping it near its lowest level since November.
This has provided some support to gold prices, but the metal remains trapped in a tight range, unable to sustain a breakout.
Uncertainty Over Trump’s Tariffs and Fed Policy Outlook Weigh on Investor Sentiment
Despite the upbeat sentiment in the market, investor sentiment remains on edge due to the uncertainty surrounding US President Trump’s protectionist tariffs.
These tariffs could slow down US economic growth and potentially force the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June.
Recently, Trump expressed uncertainty about upcoming tariffs on Canada, saying they may or may not be implemented on Monday or Tuesday.
This came after a temporary one-month waiver of the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, which was part of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Consequently, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is keeping investors cautious, and they are closely monitoring any further developments. The situation could influence economic growth projections and the Fed’s next moves, adding to market volatility.
On the Fed front, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized on Friday that the economic impact of Trump’s policies is still uncertain.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that growing uncertainty among businesses could slow US economic growth but doesn’t yet require an immediate change in policy.
Despite these comments, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the year ends.
This expectation continues to weigh on the US Dollar, creating a bearish outlook and indirectly boosting support for gold prices.
Weaker US Jobs Report Weighs on USD, Supporting Gold But Limiting Momentum
On the data front, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised down to 125,000 from the previous 143,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.1% from 4.0%, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market.
As a result of the weaker jobs report, US Treasury bond yields have dropped, putting more pressure on the US Dollar. Despite these factors helping gold, the metal remains stuck in a narrow range and is struggling to gain momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are holding steady at $2,913.19, reflecting a marginal decline amid cautious market sentiment. The metal has struggled to break above key resistance, with technical indicators suggesting a near-term consolidation phase before a potential breakout.
The pivot point at $2,902.47 is acting as a crucial intraday level, offering a strong base of support. Immediate resistance is identified at $2,929.94, with further hurdles at $2,942.57 and $2,954.43.
If bullish momentum builds, gold could challenge these levels, signaling a continuation of its uptrend. Conversely, support is firm at $2,884.54, with further downside protection at $2,872.63 and $2,858.99. A break below these levels may trigger a deeper correction.
From a technical perspective, gold remains above its 50-day EMA at $2,913.19, reinforcing the bullish trend. However, price action near this level suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with the market awaiting a catalyst for directional movement.
If gold sustains a move above $2,913, bullish momentum could push prices toward $2,930, while a failure to hold this level may lead to a test of lower supports.
In conclusion, gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to maintain support above $2,913. A buy position above $2,913 remains favorable, targeting $2,930, with a stop-loss at $2,905 to mitigate downside risk.
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