Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains stable above $3,130 on Wednesday after retreating from a record high of $3,149. However, the precious metal experienced a reversal move in the previous session as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic events.
Another factor that has been supporting the Gold price is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to shift towards gold as a hedge.
Tariff Uncertainty and Employment Data Drive Market Volatility and Gold Price Movements
The global market sentiment has been sluggish as investors closely monitor the White House, with former U.S. President Donald Trump set to announce new reciprocal tariffs. The lack of clarity on the scale and targets of these levies has fueled market speculation, contributing to increased volatility.
Hence, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for Gold, resulting in short-term corrections as market participants adjust positions after the announcement.
On the other hand, traders are also eyeing the ADP private employment report, expected to show a gain of 105,000 jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February. Although the ADP data does not always align with the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, it remains a key indicator of labor market health and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Federal Reserve's Rate Plans and Strong Investor Demand Support Gold Prices
On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans are important for Gold prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 15.8% chance of a rate cut in May, and a 25.6% chance in June. Generally, the higher interest rates can put pressure on Gold prices, but global uncertainties are still pushing up demand for Gold as a safe investment.
Moreover, investor interest in Gold remains strong, as evidenced by record inflows into China’s Huaan Yifu Gold ETF. The fund received 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday, followed by another 1 billion Yuan on Tuesday, reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its broader uptrend, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. After a brief correction that saw prices dip to an intraday low of $3,112.21, the metal has rebounded and is currently trading near $3,125.00.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold sustains above the 50-period EMA at $3,097.88. The recent pullback found support just above the $3,100.00 handle—a level that aligns with both the lower band of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the late-March rally.
The pivot point sits at $3,112.21, a critical zone where buyers have returned repeatedly. Immediate resistance is seen at $3,144.00, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,148.62.
A breakout above this area could open the path toward the next resistance at $3,165.66. On the downside, key support rests at $3,100.07, with additional cushions forming at $3,094.00 and $3,079.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.86, recovering from oversold territory and suggesting renewed bullish momentum, although not yet signaling overbought conditions.
The 50 EMA at $3,097.88 is sloping upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias, while price action remains comfortably above the psychological support at $3,100.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $3,111.00, the risk remains tilted to the upside. Traders may consider long positions above this level with a target at $3,144.00 and a protective stop at $3,094.00. Failure to hold above $3,100.00, however, could trigger a broader correction.
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