GOLD Price Analysis – May 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s trading session, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) climbed over 0.78%, reclaiming ground above the $3,330 level. The rally comes as investors largely brushed off the recently announced US-UK trade agreement, calling it an "empty shell" with limited economic impact.
This lukewarm deal failed to inspire market confidence, thereby supporting demand for the precious metal amid persistent trade policy uncertainties.
Gold Strengthens as Markets Shrug Off Weak US-UK Trade Deal
Despite claims of progress, the US-UK trade deal fell short of expectations, offering only modest improvements such as faster customs processing and better market access for US exporters.
Notably, 10% tariffs remain intact, and the UK is expected to fulfill $10 billion in Boeing purchases, according to Bloomberg.
This underwhelming agreement cast doubts over Washington’s broader trade strategy, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of gold as a hedge against future economic uncertainty.
Market analysts view the deal as a missed opportunity to form a comprehensive bilateral framework, reinforcing skepticism about upcoming negotiations with China.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted that "buying gold on dips is still in vogue," suggesting that investor confidence in safe-haven assets remains intact even as some traditional risk-off drivers fade.
XAU/USD Buoyed by Investor Focus on Geneva US-China Tariff Talks
All eyes now turn to Geneva, where crucial US-China tariff talks are set to begin this weekend. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the discussions, with sources suggesting that the US may reduce tariffs from 145% to below 60% as an initial step—an offer Beijing could potentially match.
Any substantial progress could be followed by the implementation of tariff cuts as early as next week, Bloomberg reported.
Ahead of the talks, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism, stating that negotiations could yield “tangible progress” and even hinted at lowering existing tariffs if discussions proceed smoothly.
Meanwhile, China reiterated its stance that all unilateral tariffs must be rolled back for any serious negotiation to begin. These signals of possible de-escalation in trade tensions are contributing to gold’s appeal, as traders prepare for volatility in the days ahead.
Gold Supported by Policy Uncertainty and Hawkish Signals from Trump
President Trump’s latest comments encouraging Americans to “go out and buy stocks” have added another layer of market unpredictability.
While his remarks suggest confidence in the economic outlook, they also contrast sharply with lingering uncertainties over trade policy and central bank direction.
With safe-haven demand still present, gold remains resilient, especially amid doubts about the Fed’s next moves and potential disruptions from geopolitical developments.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the Geneva summit outcome and its impact on global trade flows.
Until clearer signs of resolution emerge, gold is likely to remain supported near current levels, with the $3,330 threshold serving as a key technical pivot for short-term momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is attempting to recover after finding support at $3,300, aligning with a key ascending trendline that has held since late April. This level coincides with a psychological support zone, providing a potential base for a bullish rebound.
The 50 SMA at $3,355 is acting as immediate resistance, with the next target at $3,352, followed by a more significant barrier at $3,357.
If prices can clear this zone, a move toward $3,385 is possible. However, a break below $3,300 could expose the metal to a deeper decline toward $3,273, aligning with the broader trendline support.
The RSI is currently at 46.68, indicating a neutral stance but with room for further upside if momentum picks up. The recent higher lows pattern suggests building bullish momentum, but the 50 SMA still caps near-term gains.
Notably, the recent candlestick pattern shows a mix of spinning tops and small-bodied candles, reflecting market indecision as traders await a clearer direction.
A break above $3,352 could trigger a push toward $3,385, while a drop below $3,300 risks a retest of $3,273. Traders should watch for a decisive move to confirm the next trend.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Trendline Support: $3,300 holds as a critical base.
- Momentum Building: Higher lows signal potential recovery.
- Resistance Cluster: $3,352 to $3,385 remains a critical barrier.
Gold is attempting to recover after finding support at $3,300, aligning with a key ascending trendline that has held since late April. This level coincides with a psychological support zone, providing a potential base for a bullish rebound.
The 50 SMA at $3,355 is acting as immediate resistance, with the next target at $3,352, followed by a more significant barrier at $3,357.
If prices can clear this zone, a move toward $3,385 is possible. However, a break below $3,300 could expose the metal to a deeper decline toward $3,273, aligning with the broader trendline support.
The RSI is currently at 46.68, indicating a neutral stance but with room for further upside if momentum picks up. The recent higher lows pattern suggests building bullish momentum, but the 50 SMA still caps near-term gains.
Notably, the recent candlestick pattern shows a mix of spinning tops and small-bodied candles, reflecting market indecision as traders await a clearer direction.
A break above $3,352 could trigger a push toward $3,385, while a drop below $3,300 risks a retest of $3,273. Traders should watch for a decisive move to confirm the next trend.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above $3300
Take Profit – $3352
Stop Loss – $3273
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5200/ -$2700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$520/ -$270
GOLD Price Analysis – May 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward trend and slipped to $3,331, marking a 1% decline as the safe haven appeal weakened ahead of the anticipated announcement of a major trade deal between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK).
Thus, the decline came after expectations of reduced uncertainty, as US President Donald Trump was set to confirm a trade deal with the UK at a 14:00 GMT news conference in Washington. Although the details of the deal were not confirmed, the UK government had already stated that an agreement would be revealed.
Gold Weakens Amid Safe Haven Outflows as Trade Deal Expectations Rise
However, the possible US-UK trade deal has pressured gold prices, as investors move away from safe-haven assets. With hopes for reduced trade tensions, markets have become more optimistic, shifting capital away from gold.
Investors are preparing for a less uncertain environment, expecting the deal to be part of a broader solution in global trade. President Trump's social media posts about the deal have also boosted optimism in the markets.
Fed’s Steady Rates and Strong US Outlook Weigh on Gold Prices
In addition to the trade deal, gold prices fell after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy remains strong but warned that the full impact of tariffs and uncertainty will be clearer later this year.
He also said the Fed isn’t in a hurry to cut rates, and markets don’t expect any cuts before summer, which made gold less attractive to investors.
Gold's Long-Term Appeal Remains Strong Amid Global Uncertainty
Despite short-term drops in gold, it remains attractive in the long run, with many hedge funds still seeing it as a safe haven due to global trade uncertainties.
Waratah Capital Advisors Ltd. has a strong position in gold, expecting more demand for it as a way to protect wealth during trade disruptions.
Investors are also looking to gold for growth as they seek to safeguard their assets amid global instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading near $3,337, struggling to hold the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $3,384 after a sharp rejection from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,381.
The price is currently testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $3,325, a critical support level, with the 61.8% level at $3,301 acting as a potential next downside target if selling pressure continues.
The short-term outlook remains bearish, with a potential sell entry below $3,350 targeting $3,300, while a protective stop-loss above $3,382 reduces downside risk.
A close below the 61.8% level at $3,301 could accelerate the decline toward the $3,265 support, completing a potential three black crows pattern on lower timeframes, confirming further weakness.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate selling pressure below $3,350 could expose $3,300.
- RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting caution for buyers.
- A close below $3,301 confirms bearish control, potentially targeting $3,265.
Gold is trading near $3,337, struggling to hold the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $3,384 after a sharp rejection from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,381.
The price is currently testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $3,325, a critical support level, with the 61.8% level at $3,301 acting as a potential next downside target if selling pressure continues.
The short-term outlook remains bearish, with a potential sell entry below $3,350 targeting $3,300, while a protective stop-loss above $3,382 reduces downside risk.
A close below the 61.8% level at $3,301 could accelerate the decline toward the $3,265 support, completing a potential three black crows pattern on lower timeframes, confirming further weakness.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3350
Take Profit – 3300
Stop Loss – 3382
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5000/ -$3200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$500/ -$320
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold is forming a rising trendline, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
- RSI indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting caution.
- A break above $3,430 could signal a fresh bullish leg toward $3,450.
Gold is trading near $3,393, consolidating just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,381, a key level after its recent bullish surge.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,302 is providing a robust support base, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3,301, reinforcing the bullish structure.
The recent uptrend is marked by a series of higher lows, supported by a rising trendline from late April, indicating continued buying interest.
Candlestick analysis reveals a potential Doji near the $3,393 resistance, reflecting market indecision at this critical level.
A break above this zone could pave the way for a rally toward the next resistance at $3,430, followed by the psychological $3,450 mark, aligning with the recent swing high.
However, a failure to clear this resistance could trigger a pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3,350, with deeper support at $3,326 and $3,302, the latter aligning with the 50-SMA.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 71, suggesting overbought conditions, which may prompt short-term profit-taking.
However, the overall trend remains bullish as long as prices hold above the key support at $3,348, a critical pivot point.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3380
Take Profit – 3450
Stop Loss – 3348
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$7000/ -$3200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$700/ -$320
GOLD Price Analysis – May 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Wednesday’s session, gold (XAU/USD) pulled back from its recent gains, slipping to $3,380 as traders weighed the impact of renewed US-China trade optimism and awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
The yellow metal snapped a two-day winning streak as investors took profits and shifted focus to improving diplomatic signals between the world’s two largest economies.
Gold Pressured by US-China Trade Talks and Diminished Safe-Haven Demand
However, the latest retreat in gold prices was driven by fresh hopes of progress in US-China trade relations. Statements from both Washington and Beijing confirmed that trade discussions are set to resume this weekend in Switzerland.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Though the talks are initially aimed at de-escalating tensions rather than finalizing trade agreements, the move was interpreted as a positive step toward easing tariff-related uncertainties.
This development reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, even amid heightened geopolitical risks in South Asia.
Reports from Pakistan indicated it had shot down five Indian fighter jets and captured soldiers in retaliation for Indian air strikes.
However, the market reaction to the military escalation was muted, as optimism surrounding trade talks took center stage, offsetting the usual bullish impact of geopolitical tensions on gold.
Traders Cautious Ahead of Fed's Interest Rate Decision Amid Political Pressure and Economic Uncertainty
Traders also remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for later in the day.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 95.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady.
This suggests that a rate cut would come as a significant surprise, especially amid persistent political pressure from President Donald Trump urging the central bank to ease monetary policy.
Fed officials have signaled that future decisions will be guided by data and the broader economic outlook.
With inflation still being monitored closely and the full impact of tariffs yet to be felt, policymakers appear inclined to maintain the current stance, keeping investors on edge.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading near $3,393, consolidating just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,381, a key level after its recent bullish surge.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,302 is providing a robust support base, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3,301, reinforcing the bullish structure.
The recent uptrend is marked by a series of higher lows, supported by a rising trendline from late April, indicating continued buying interest.
Candlestick analysis reveals a potential Doji near the $3,393 resistance, reflecting market indecision at this critical level.
A break above this zone could pave the way for a rally toward the next resistance at $3,430, followed by the psychological $3,450 mark, aligning with the recent swing high.
However, a failure to clear this resistance could trigger a pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3,350, with deeper support at $3,326 and $3,302, the latter aligning with the 50-SMA.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 71, suggesting overbought conditions, which may prompt short-term profit-taking.
However, the overall trend remains bullish as long as prices hold above the key support at $3,348, a critical pivot point.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Breakout from higher low formation and bullish triangle
- Price above 50-SMA with strong momentum and pattern confirmation
- RSI suggests caution, but trend remains in buyers' control
Gold has powered through key resistance at $3,350, breaking above the 50-period SMA ($3,273.07) and pushing into a tight descending triangle structure.
Price is now testing the upper boundary of this triangle, which has consistently held since the late-April rejection near $3,449.
The recent rally began after a firm higher low formation near $3,222, confirming bullish structure within a broader ascending channel.
Candlestick momentum is strong, with a near-vertical series of bullish candles—visually resembling a short-term "three white soldiers" pattern.
This signifies aggressive buyer interest. The RSI reading at 73.79 suggests overbought conditions, but no bearish divergence is present yet. Momentum remains intact, though traders should be cautious of potential exhaustion near the $3,408 resistance.
If the breakout clears $3,409 with conviction, the next targets become $3,449 and $3,499.80. A pullback toward $3,305 would still keep the structure intact if buyers defend that level.
Below that, $3,271 and $3,222 remain deeper support. The risk-reward favors the long side for now, with bullish bias maintained above $3,350.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3350
Take Profit – 3408
Stop Loss – 3305
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5800/ -$4500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$580/ -$450
GOLD Price Analysis – May 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Tuesday, Gold (XAU/USD) surged higher for a second consecutive day, supported by growing global geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and ongoing speculation regarding US trade deals and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Gold's recent rise can largely be attributed to the escalating geopolitical concerns around the globe. In the Middle East, Israel is getting ready for a major ground offensive in Gaza, aiming to take full control of the region.
This uncertainty has fueled investors’ demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, which tends to benefit from geopolitical risk and instability.
US Trade Deal Hopes Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Demand
On the US front, the growing expectations of a first trade deal have also contributed to the bullish sentiment in Gold.
US President Donald Trump and his administration have repeatedly hinted that an agreement is close, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting that the first deal will be with a top-ten economy.
While the deal is still in the works, the anticipation surrounding it has kept investors on edge, further fueling Gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Forex Market Volatility and Its Impact on Gold's Rise
Apart from this, the forex market volatility is another factor supporting Gold’s rise. On Monday, the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) experienced a sharp appreciation against the US Dollar (USD), sending waves across the foreign exchange markets.
Traders are now cautious, as the move could weaken the US Dollar against other major Asian currencies, reducing its role as a reliable safe haven. If the US Dollar weakens further, Gold stands to benefit as an alternative investment.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on US Dollar, Benefiting Gold
Market participants are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions on interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May stands at just 2.4%, with the chances of no change in rates at 97.6%.
However, expectations for a rate cut in June have risen, with a 29.8% chance of a rate reduction. This speculation regarding a more dovish Fed stance has put downward pressure on the US Dollar, which in turn benefits Gold.
Shanghai Gold Exchange Expansion Boosts Yuan-Denominated Gold Products
In addition to this, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has plans to expand its warehouse network into Hong Kong, which could increase the global profile of its yuan-denominated gold products.
This move further solidifies the demand for Gold, as China continues to assert its influence in the global gold market.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold has powered through key resistance at $3,350, breaking above the 50-period SMA ($3,273.07) and pushing into a tight descending triangle structure.
Price is now testing the upper boundary of this triangle, which has consistently held since the late-April rejection near $3,449.
The recent rally began after a firm higher low formation near $3,222, confirming bullish structure within a broader ascending channel.
Candlestick momentum is strong, with a near-vertical series of bullish candles—visually resembling a short-term "three white soldiers" pattern.
This signifies aggressive buyer interest. The RSI reading at 73.79 suggests overbought conditions, but no bearish divergence is present yet. Momentum remains intact, though traders should be cautious of potential exhaustion near the $3,408 resistance.
If the breakout clears $3,409 with conviction, the next targets become $3,449 and $3,499.80. A pullback toward $3,305 would still keep the structure intact if buyers defend that level.
Below that, $3,271 and $3,222 remain deeper support. The risk-reward favors the long side for now, with bullish bias maintained above $3,350.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains range-bound within a descending channel under $3,270 resistance.
- RSI divergence and failed breakouts hint at downside risk.
- Watch for confirmation before fading the rally.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a defined descending channel, capped by a stubborn resistance band near $3,270.
The metal attempted a breakout early Friday but failed to close above the 50-period SMA at $3,269.98, aligning closely with the descending trendline—a confluence zone acting as a barrier to bullish continuation.
Candlestick behavior shows indecision, with a spinning top forming near resistance, reinforcing the need for caution.
Technically, gold printed a series of higher lows from the $3,215 zone, suggesting gradual accumulation. Yet, no higher high has confirmed a trend reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 53.47, near-neutral territory, but diverges modestly against recent price highs—a signal that bullish momentum is fading unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
The key pivot to watch is $3,270. A sustained break above this level, particularly with a bullish engulfing candle and volume spike, could open the door to $3,300 and $3,320.
However, price remains below the SMA and trapped beneath the trendline. Until bulls reclaim the $3,270–$3,275 zone, downside risks linger. A rejection here could lead to renewed bearish pressure toward $3,215, with deeper support at $3,171.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3270
Take Profit – 3215
Stop Loss – 3300
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5500/ -$3000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$550/ -$300
GOLD Price Analysis – May 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices extended their winning streak on Monday, surging more than 2% to reach $3,310 as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
However, the sharp rally in Gold (XAU/USD) came after a weekend of heightened risks, including a Houthi attack on Ben Gurion Airport and Israel's plans for a large-scale ground offensive in Gaza.
These developments have intensified market uncertainty, driving traders to seek the stability of gold as a hedge against global instability and potential shifts in U.S. interest rate policies.
Therefore, the news of US President Donald Trump hinting at military action to take control of Greenland further added to the sense of global instability, driving demand for gold as a secure investment.
Gold's Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East
On the geopolitical front, the safe-haven demand for gold has been growing as tensions rise. The Houthi attack and the expected Israeli retaliation have raised concerns about instability in the region, pushing investors to seek the stability of gold.
However, the conflicts in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty, traders are turning to gold, which has long been considered a reliable store of value during times of geopolitical turmoil. This increasing demand for gold highlights its role as a safe-haven asset when global risks intensify.
Gold's Appeal Boosted by Fed Rate Cut Speculations and Geopolitical Tensions
In addition to geopolitical risks, the ongoing speculations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision are also playing a major role in pushing gold prices higher. However, the market is gearing up for the Fed's meeting on May 7, with traders anxious about potential rate cuts.
President Trump’s continued criticism of the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell, coupled with his calls for rate cuts, has contributed to heightened expectations. However, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the immediate term.
Despite signs of a slowdown in the US economy, including recent weaker Nonfarm Payrolls data and slower manufacturing and services growth, the economy is not in freefall.
This slower pace of growth gives the Fed space to keep interest rates steady, which supports gold's appeal.
Hence, the Fed’s careful approach to rate cuts also signals that higher rates could stick around for longer, making gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
Gold's Bullish Outlook Amid Fed's Rate Cut Speculations and Geopolitical Risks
Looking forward, traders are keeping a close eye on both the geopolitical situation and the Fed's monetary policy.
The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its May meeting is low at just 5.2%, but June has a much higher chance at 46.6%.
These expectations, along with ongoing geopolitical risks, suggest that gold could continue to rise in the short term.
Despite many Asian markets and the UK being closed for a public holiday, gold is still benefiting from strong buying interest.
Apart from this, the gold mining sector is seeing significant changes, with Gold Road Resources agreeing to a $3.7 billion takeover by Gold Fields, pointing to more industry consolidation.
Therefore, the strong buying interest in gold, coupled with industry consolidation like Gold Road's $3.7 billion takeover, signals confidence in the sector, potentially driving gold prices higher due to increased demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a defined descending channel, capped by a stubborn resistance band near $3,270.
The metal attempted a breakout early Friday but failed to close above the 50-period SMA at $3,269.98, aligning closely with the descending trendline—a confluence zone acting as a barrier to bullish continuation.
Candlestick behavior shows indecision, with a spinning top forming near resistance, reinforcing the need for caution.
Technically, gold printed a series of higher lows from the $3,215 zone, suggesting gradual accumulation. Yet, no higher high has confirmed a trend reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 53.47, near-neutral territory, but diverges modestly against recent price highs—a signal that bullish momentum is fading unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
The key pivot to watch is $3,270. A sustained break above this level, particularly with a bullish engulfing candle and volume spike, could open the door to $3,300 and $3,320.
However, price remains below the SMA and trapped beneath the trendline. Until bulls reclaim the $3,270–$3,275 zone, downside risks linger. A rejection here could lead to renewed bearish pressure toward $3,215, with deeper support at $3,171.
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