GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices faced renewed selling pressure on Friday, driven by a positive risk sentiment that undermined the appeal of safe-haven assets.
The precious metal, often seen as a refuge during times of uncertainty, struggled to maintain its value as optimism surrounding trade relations between the US and China gained momentum.
Additionally, the emergence of US Dollar (USD) buying further weighed on Gold prices, adding to the downward momentum for XAU/USD.
US-China Trade Optimism Drags on Safe-Haven Gold
However, the major factor behind the decline in Gold was growing optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations. US President Donald Trump indicated that trade talks between the two largest economies were progressing, raising hopes of a potential de-escalation in the trade war.
This sentiment was further fueled by reports that China might suspend its 125% tariff on some US imports, despite China's Foreign Minister denying any ongoing negotiations. The market optimism regarding a resolution of trade tensions between the two nations has acted as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price.
Geopolitical Risks and Fed's Rate Cut Expectations Offer Some Support
Despite the positive risk-on sentiment, several factors helped limit the decline in Gold prices. This include geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The recent missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, which resulted in multiple casualties, underscored the continued volatility in the region, preventing a sharp drop in Gold prices.
Moreover, the possibility of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided some caution before placing further bearish bets on Gold.
The Fed's stance on potential interest rate cuts, as suggested by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remained a significant factor for market participants.
The prospect of multiple rate cuts by the end of the year kept some traders from betting too heavily against Gold, with investors awaiting further developments on the Fed’s policy actions.
US Dollar Strength Weighs on Gold Prices
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) garnered some strength, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data. Notably, the Department of Labor’s report on Initial Jobless Claims showed modest increases to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating a resilient labor market.
Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, surpassing expectations and adding to the positive tone around the US economy.
These data points provided the USD with upward momentum, further pressuring Gold prices, which are inversely correlated with the USD.
Looking ahead, traders are likely to continue monitoring trade-related developments and broader risk sentiment for short-term trading opportunities in the XAU/USD pair.
In the meantime, the release of the revised Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index and potential updates on US-China trade talks will be key catalysts for market movements.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are under pressure as they flirt with a critical breakdown below the $3,316 support zone, following a textbook lower high rejection around $3,342.
The market is tracing a descending triangle, defined by falling highs and a flat base near $3,314, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 50-period EMA at $3,367 has turned decisively downward, acting as dynamic resistance, and capping intraday rallies.
A sequence of spinning tops and Doji candles formed along the descending trendline—most recently at $3,342—signals market indecision and exhaustion of buying momentum.
Notably, the failure to breach this zone confirms the pattern of lower highs, supported by a short-lived three white soldiers pattern that reversed into a bearish engulfing candle.
Adding weight to the bearish case is the RSI, which currently sits at 42.41. A clear bearish divergence emerged earlier this week, as prices posted higher highs while RSI made lower highs—often a prelude to deeper pullbacks. A crossover below the 50-level confirms the shift toward downside momentum.
If gold breaks below $3,316 on strong volume, it may open the path to $3,260 and possibly $3,228. Key trendline support drawn from the April 10 low coincides with this confluence zone, making it the next battleground for bulls.
However, a sharp move above $3,357 would invalidate the short setup and could pave the way for a retest of $3,386.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold forms a descending triangle with a bearish engulfing candle near $3,342.
- RSI divergence and 50-EMA rejection confirm downside momentum.
- Break below $3,316 could accelerate losses toward $3,260 and $3,228.
Gold prices are under pressure as they flirt with a critical breakdown below the $3,316 support zone, following a textbook lower high rejection around $3,342.
The market is tracing a descending triangle, defined by falling highs and a flat base near $3,314, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 50-period EMA at $3,367 has turned decisively downward, acting as dynamic resistance, and capping intraday rallies.
A sequence of spinning tops and Doji candles formed along the descending trendline—most recently at $3,342—signals market indecision and exhaustion of buying momentum.
Notably, the failure to breach this zone confirms the pattern of lower highs, supported by a short-lived three white soldiers pattern that reversed into a bearish engulfing candle.
Adding weight to the bearish case is the RSI, which currently sits at 42.41. A clear bearish divergence emerged earlier this week, as prices posted higher highs while RSI made lower highs—often a prelude to deeper pullbacks. A crossover below the 50-level confirms the shift toward downside momentum.
If gold breaks below $3,316 on strong volume, it may open the path to $3,260 and possibly $3,228. Key trendline support drawn from the April 10 low coincides with this confluence zone, making it the next battleground for bulls.
However, a sharp move above $3,357 would invalidate the short setup and could pave the way for a retest of $3,386.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3316
Take Profit – 3259
Stop Loss – 3357
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5700/ -$410
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$570/ -$410
GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to bounce back after falling for two days and are now trading around $3,335.
However, the recent decline was mainly due to growing worries about the US-China trade conflict. US President Donald Trump mentioned that new tariffs on China could be introduced within the next two to three weeks.
This statement increased uncertainty in global trade, making markets more unstable — and gold was also affected by this volatility.
Gold Price Recovery Driven by Trade Tensions and US Tariff Speculation
The global market sentiment has turned cautious again as President Trump’s comments on Wednesday about potential new tariffs sparked concerns. He suggested that China could face higher tariffs unless trade talks with the US progress well.
This warning of escalating trade tensions has worried investors, driving them to buy gold as a safe-haven asset. The fear that additional tariffs could negatively affect economic growth has boosted gold demand, as it is considered a protective investment during periods of market uncertainty.
In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that Trump’s comments don’t mean the US will reduce tariffs on China without conditions. The government is considering other factors, like non-tariff barriers and Chinese subsidies.
With no clear plan on what the US will do next about tariffs, markets are still uncertain. This uncertainty has led traders to buy gold for safety, pushing its prices up.
Swiss National Bank's Gold Holdings Boost Investor Confidence
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) provided another boost to gold prices, reporting a significant gain from its gold holdings. The SNB’s first-quarter profit of 6.7 billion Swiss Francs, driven by its gold assets, highlights the continued strength of gold in global markets.
This performance shows that gold remains a strong asset during times of market uncertainty, encouraging more investors to turn to the precious metal.
Gold Prices Drop in Shanghai Market as Trade War Fears Resurface, but Strong Buying Interest Persists
Apart from this, the Shanghai gold futures market experienced the biggest one-day drop in gold prices since 2013. Chinese investors, who had been hopeful about a US-China trade deal, quickly started selling to take profits after Trump’s comments brought back fears of a long trade war.
Even though there was a sharp sell-off at first, signs of strong buying interest are still there. Many investors who missed the chance to buy gold at lower prices in April are now getting back in.
Therefore, the sharp drop in Shanghai gold futures triggered a brief sell-off, but strong buying interest emerged as investors, missing April's lower prices, returned to gold, supporting its price recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is struggling to regain bullish momentum after its recent breakdown from the ascending channel. The price was rejected around the $3,345 level — now acting as short-term resistance — and remains below the 50-period SMA ($3,366), indicating that sellers are still in control.
A bearish setup is building below this structure, with a potential continuation toward the $3,290 support zone if $3,345 fails to break.
Recent price action shows lower highs and a rejection candle off the $3,345 resistance zone, forming a potential bearish flag. This aligns with the RSI reading of 45.67, which remains under pressure and confirms weakening upward momentum.
If sellers manage to push the price below $3,345, the next key level to watch will be $3,290, followed by $3,288. A close above $3,390 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a short-term reversal toward $3,411.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Flag Formation: Gold is consolidating below $3,345 after failing to recover its broken uptrend.
- SMA as Resistance: Price remains capped below the 50-SMA, reinforcing bearish bias.
- Momentum Still Soft: RSI at 45.67 with no strong bullish divergence, suggesting downside potential.
Gold is struggling to regain bullish momentum after its recent breakdown from the ascending channel. The price was rejected around the $3,345 level — now acting as short-term resistance — and remains below the 50-period SMA ($3,366), indicating that sellers are still in control.
A bearish setup is building below this structure, with a potential continuation toward the $3,290 support zone if $3,345 fails to break.
Recent price action shows lower highs and a rejection candle off the $3,345 resistance zone, forming a potential bearish flag. This aligns with the RSI reading of 45.67, which remains under pressure and confirms weakening upward momentum.
If sellers manage to push the price below $3,345, the next key level to watch will be $3,290, followed by $3,288. A close above $3,390 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a short-term reversal toward $3,411.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3345
Take Profit – 3290
Stop Loss – 3390
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5500/ -$4500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$550/ -$450
GOLD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their decline after failing to hold above the psychological $3,500 mark—a fresh record high.
The precious metal has now fallen for a second consecutive day, retreating to around the $3,300 level amid waning safe-haven demand and shifting market dynamics.
Gold Price Faces Pressure from Easing Geopolitical Tensions
However, the major factor behind the recent decline in gold prices is the easing of geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump’s administration hinted at the possibility of de-escalating the trade dispute with China, which has been a major driver of global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Trump backtracked on his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, signaling a more stable political outlook.
These moves helped ease market concerns, boosting investor confidence and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Apart from this, the upbeat comments from Trump’s administration officials regarding the US-China trade talks, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s positive stance on peace initiatives in Ukraine, have helped calm global tensions.
These developments have resulted in profit-taking in gold, following its recent record highs, as investors shifted to riskier assets.
Gold Prices Weighed Down by USD Recovery and Fed's Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar maintained its bullish trend and remained strong. Although, the gains could be fade due to ongoing concerns about the US economy and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease policy aggressively.
Many investors now believe the Fed could restart its rate-cutting cycle in June, with some even expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.
Furthermore, the market's focus has shifted to the upcoming release of global flash PMIs, which are expected to provide fresh insights into global economic health and influence investor sentiment further. If the data signals weaker economic conditions, gold may see renewed support, even as geopolitical tensions ease.
Investor Caution as Geopolitical Risks Fade and Fed Actions Loom
Despite the recent slide in gold, investors remain cautious about declaring the end of gold’s upward trend. The ongoing speculation surrounding the Fed’s potential rate cuts continues to support gold’s allure. Moreover, while easing geopolitical tensions have contributed to the retreat, concerns about the health of the global economy and the Fed's actions could offer a potential tailwind for the precious metal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold has broken below its rising channel and is showing signs of trend exhaustion after failing to hold above the $3,370 support zone. The recent break under both the ascending channel support and the 50-period SMA ($3,368) confirms a short-term bearish shift. Price action is now targeting the next support area around $3,273, provided the bearish pressure sustains.
The rejection near $3,453 followed by consecutive bearish candlesticks points to a strong reversal pattern. This is further supported by a drop in the RSI, now at 36.00, which reflects increasing downside momentum and puts buyers on the defensive.
Sellers are likely to remain in control below $3,370. A daily close beneath this threshold confirms the breakdown. The next area of interest for sellers is the $3,273 support, while any recovery above $3,433 would invalidate the short setup and suggest bullish reentry.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Channel Breakdown: Gold has broken below its upward channel, shifting short-term bias to bearish.
- SMA Flip: Price now trades under the 50-period SMA, increasing bearish conviction.
- Momentum Drops: RSI at 36 suggests sellers are gaining strength.
Gold has broken below its rising channel and is showing signs of trend exhaustion after failing to hold above the $3,370 support zone. The recent break under both the ascending channel support and the 50-period SMA ($3,368) confirms a short-term bearish shift. Price action is now targeting the next support area around $3,273, provided the bearish pressure sustains.
The rejection near $3,453 followed by consecutive bearish candlesticks points to a strong reversal pattern. This is further supported by a drop in the RSI, now at 36.00, which reflects increasing downside momentum and puts buyers on the defensive.
Sellers are likely to remain in control below $3,370. A daily close beneath this threshold confirms the breakdown. The next area of interest for sellers is the $3,273 support, while any recovery above $3,433 would invalidate the short setup and suggest bullish reentry.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3370
Take Profit – 3273
Stop Loss – 3433
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$9700/ -$6300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$970/ -$630
GOLD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and remained well bid above $3,450. Although the metal slightly retreated from its recent all-time high of $3,500, it continues to show strong demand as traders take a pause after recent gains, which pushed the market into short-term overbought territory. Despite this minor pullback, gold maintains a positive outlook due to ongoing global uncertainties.
However, the main reasons behind this upward momentum is the continued concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which are creating worries about global economic stability. These trade tensions have led investors to seek safer investment options like gold.
Moreover, the persistent geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is adding to the uncertainty, further boosting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. As a result, gold prices remain supported by a mix of economic and political risks, keeping the bullish bias intact.
Gold Price Surge Driven by US Tariff Fears and Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the US front, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff policies continues to play a major role in pushing gold prices higher. His frequent changes and unclear position on trade tariffs have created concerns about the future of the US economy. This has weakened investor confidence in the US Dollar (USD), which typically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, President Trump's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has raised questions about the independence of the US central bank. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates and has shown clear frustration with Powell's decisions. These political pressures on the Fed have added to market uncertainty, encouraging more investors to move their money into gold for protection.
Another important factor supporting gold prices is the market's expectation of a more dovish approach from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in June, with the possibility of at least three more cuts in 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive.
Therefore, the combination of economic instability, political tension, and expectations of lower rates is driving steady demand for the precious metal.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty Continue to Drive Gold Demand
In addition to trade policy uncertainty, escalating geopolitical tensions have provided additional support for gold. Recently, Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile attacks on Ukraine after a short ceasefire. These geopolitical events have heightened market fears, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Traders are now eyeing upcoming US economic data, including the Richmond Manufacturing Index and the flash PMIs, which could provide further insight into the health of the global economy and potentially affect gold’s price action.
Moving ahead, traders expect gold prices to stay supported due to ongoing trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks. Markets will keep a close watch on updates related to US trade policies, global conflicts, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves to get clues about where gold (XAU/USD) might head next.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trend higher within a defined ascending channel, recently breaking above the $3,468 resistance and reaching an intraday high near $3,487. The bullish structure remains intact, with price consolidating just below the $3,494 resistance. As long as the $3,468 support level holds, the outlook favors further upside toward the $3,510 target.
The 50-period SMA, currently at $3,332, continues to slope upward, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, the RSI is at 81.23 — firmly in overbought territory — suggesting that some consolidation or a mild pullback could occur before a sustained breakout.
If price maintains above $3,468, bulls could drive the move toward $3,510 and potentially retest the upper channel boundary at $3,519. On the downside, a break below $3,468 would risk a slide to $3,457 and $3,440, where the lower bound of the trade setup sits.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Ascending Channel Holds: Gold stays bullish while trading within its upward-sloping trend channel.
- Resistance Ahead: $3,494 is capping short-term upside; breakout would target $3,510.
- Overbought RSI: At 81.23, signals potential for short-term consolidation before continuation.
Gold continues to trend higher within a defined ascending channel, recently breaking above the $3,468 resistance and reaching an intraday high near $3,487. The bullish structure remains intact, with price consolidating just below the $3,494 resistance. As long as the $3,468 support level holds, the outlook favors further upside toward the $3,510 target.
The 50-period SMA, currently at $3,332, continues to slope upward, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, the RSI is at 81.23 — firmly in overbought territory — suggesting that some consolidation or a mild pullback could occur before a sustained breakout.
If price maintains above $3,468, bulls could drive the move toward $3,510 and potentially retest the upper channel boundary at $3,519. On the downside, a break below $3,468 would risk a slide to $3,457 and $3,440, where the lower bound of the trade setup sits.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3468
Take Profit – 3510
Stop Loss – 3440
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$4200/ -$2800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$420/ -$280
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Channel Continuation: Price respects ascending channel; momentum favors further upside toward $3,418.
- Support Holds: $3,350 now key support; failure here could target $3,322.
- Momentum Strong: RSI at 73 signals continued bullish strength with caution for short-term exhaustion.
Gold is extending its bullish momentum within a rising price channel, having broken above the $3,375 level and now eyeing the upper range of resistance at $3,418.
Price action remains firmly supported by the ascending trend structure, and the 50-period SMA at $3,280 continues to trend higher, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The immediate structure suggests continuation, especially as the recent pullback held firmly above $3,350 — now a key support zone. A close above $3,408 would likely accelerate buying interest toward the next key target at $3,418.
On the other hand, a drop below $3,350 could trigger a move toward $3,323 or even $3,285, where the rising channel and moving average converge.
Momentum indicators also point to strength. The RSI is back above 70 at 73.01, signaling strong bullish pressure. While this may be nearing overbought territory, the trend remains intact as long as $3,350 holds.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3375
Take Profit – 3418
Stop Loss – 3350
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$4300/ -$2500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$430/ -$250
GOLD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold surged to a new record on Monday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and intensifying concerns over the global economic outlook.
Market unease has grown in recent days as U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tariff threats, raising uncertainty over trade relations with China and sending investors toward safer assets.
Adding to the volatility, China issued a warning to other nations not to enter into broad trade agreements with the U.S. that could compromise their own interests.
Investor sentiment has soured further following Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve. The president’s remarks targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and reports that his team is exploring the legal feasibility of replacing him—have stirred doubts about the central bank’s independence.
This political backdrop has contributed to a sharp pullback in the dollar, with the euro climbing to a multi-year high and the yen strengthening to levels not seen since last fall.
Amid this backdrop, gold has become the asset of choice for investors seeking stability.
Market Anxiety, Policy Concerns Push Bullion Higher
The combined pressure of market instability and central bank uncertainty has pushed investors to reconsider gold’s role in global portfolios.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo notes that weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar’s reserve status and a broader move away from risk are providing strong tailwinds for gold. He expects prices to move toward $3,500 in the coming months if current conditions persist.
Thin liquidity during the Easter Monday trading session amplified price movements, with most European markets still closed.
But even in light volume, the trend was clear: investors are reassessing the reliability of U.S. financial assets, traditionally seen as safe, and turning to alternatives like gold.
With monetary policy credibility under question and geopolitical tension rising, gold appears set to remain in demand—especially if the dollar continues to slide and the Fed’s independence faces further scrutiny.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is extending its bullish momentum within a rising price channel, having broken above the $3,375 level and now eyeing the upper range of resistance at $3,418.
Price action remains firmly supported by the ascending trend structure, and the 50-period SMA at $3,280 continues to trend higher, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The immediate structure suggests continuation, especially as the recent pullback held firmly above $3,350 — now a key support zone. A close above $3,408 would likely accelerate buying interest toward the next key target at $3,418.
On the other hand, a drop below $3,350 could trigger a move toward $3,323 or even $3,285, where the rising channel and moving average converge.
Momentum indicators also point to strength. The RSI is back above 70 at 73.01, signaling strong bullish pressure. While this may be nearing overbought territory, the trend remains intact as long as $3,350 holds.
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