Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its bullish momentum for the second consecutive day, surging to a fresh all-time high around the $3,085 region.
However, the ongoing trade war concerns, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of auto tariffs, have fueled market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven metal.
Moreover, the ongoing expectations that Trump's aggressive trade policies could slow US economic growth and push the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards renewed rate cuts have further supported Gold’s upward trend.
Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the non-yielding yellow metal continued to attract strong demand as market participants brace for upcoming US economic data.
US Tariffs and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold
On Wednesday, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 3.
This move, coupled with existing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, has intensified fears of a broader global trade war.
Investors remain on edge ahead of next week’s anticipated reciprocal tariffs, further lifting Gold to new record highs.
Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its June policy meeting due to concerns over trade-driven economic deceleration.
The resilience of Gold prices, despite strong US macroeconomic data and mostly hawkish Fed comments, underscores the growing safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks.
Stronger US Data Fails to Deter Gold’s Rally
Despite a strong US economic backdrop, Gold prices have continued their upward trend. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 2.4%, exceeding expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 224K, reinforcing the strength of the US labor market.
Fed officials are being careful about future changes to policy. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the current approach is suitable because the economy is uncertain.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins also warned that Trump's trade policies could increase inflation, but it's unclear how much.
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Investors will closely analyze the data to assess potential rate-cut trajectories, which could further influence USD dynamics and provide fresh momentum for Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Friday, trading at $3,081.94 with a 0.27% gain on the day. The metal is showing continued strength as it hovers near record highs, buoyed by safe-haven flows and dovish monetary policy expectations.
Technically, gold remains firmly positioned above its key pivot point at $3,070.09, reinforcing bullish control in the short term.
The 4-hour chart reveals a sustained uptrend, supported by a rising channel and the 50-period EMA at $3,029.63.
With price action maintaining a comfortable distance above this moving average, momentum favors continued upside, provided the metal holds above immediate support at $3,055.67.
Additional support zones lie at $3,036.63 and $3,013.17—both of which could cushion any short-term pullbacks.
On the upside, immediate resistance is noted at $3,089.64. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward $3,103.01, followed by a potential extension to $3,118.39.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently pointing upward but has yet to enter overbought territory, suggesting there is room for further gains before momentum stalls.
Gold’s bullish structure is further validated by the fact that price continues to respect both trendline and moving average support, while making higher highs and higher lows.
Traders may look to enter long positions above $3,070 with a target near $3,105, while keeping stops below $3,045 to manage downside risk.
Unless a sharp reversal breaks below $3,055, the current technical setup continues to favor buyers.
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