AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday’s European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair bounced back modestly, edging higher toward the 0.6450 mark after experiencing a sharp decline of over 1% in the previous session.
The rebound comes after renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade relations. In contrast to this, the modest strength in the US dollar was seen as a key factor that limits gains in the AUD/USD pair.
Fed’s Wait-and-See Approach Adds Pressure on USD but Limits AUD/USD Recovery
As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but the tone of its statement introduced renewed uncertainty. The Fed cited increased risks to both inflation and employment and emphasized a continued data-dependent approach.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference added to the cautious sentiment, especially when he highlighted that persistent trade tariffs could obstruct the Fed’s inflation and employment objectives well into 2025.
These comments raised concerns about policy instability and hinted that the Fed may delay future rate adjustments, pushing the US Dollar higher and capping the AUD/USD rebound.
AUD/USD Finds Support on US-China Trade Talks and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans
Despite the broader US Dollar strength, the Australian Dollar found support amid renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade relations.
Although, the upcoming high-level talks in Geneva between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are seen as a potential turning point in the prolonged trade conflict.
Further supporting the Australian Dollar is China’s recent announcement to cut key lending rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to stimulate growth.
These efforts by the People’s Bank of China aim to stabilize the economy and improve demand for Australian exports, particularly in the commodity sector.
RBA Rate Cut Speculation Grows Despite Ai Group Index Improvement
On the domestic front, market participants continue to price in a potential 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which would lower the cash rate to 3.85%. This expectation persists despite a slight improvement in the Ai Group Industry Index for April.
The index, however, still marked its 33rd consecutive month of contraction, especially in export-reliant manufacturing sectors, underscoring persistent economic softness. This reinforces the belief that the RBA may act to support growth, even as external conditions gradually improve.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading around $0.64122, breaking below a critical ascending trendline that had supported the recent bullish structure. This trendline breach, combined with the drop below the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $0.64670, indicates a potential bearish reversal.
The price action has formed a clear bearish engulfing candle, confirming the downward momentum, while the RSI is hovering near 36.73, signaling increasing bearish pressure but not yet oversold.
The break below the ascending trendline and 50-hour SMA signals a potential bearish continuation, with a possible sell entry below $0.64211, targeting the $0.63855 support. A protective stop-loss above $0.64436 helps manage risk in case of a bullish rebound.
Traders should watch for a potential three black crows pattern, signaling continued bearish dominance if the next few candles close lower.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish trendline break confirms potential downside.
- RSI remains above oversold levels, allowing for further selling pressure.
- Key support at $0.63855 is the next target if downside momentum persists.
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading around $0.64122, breaking below a critical ascending trendline that had supported the recent bullish structure. This trendline breach, combined with the drop below the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $0.64670, indicates a potential bearish reversal.
The price action has formed a clear bearish engulfing candle, confirming the downward momentum, while the RSI is hovering near 36.73, signaling increasing bearish pressure but not yet oversold.
The break below the ascending trendline and 50-hour SMA signals a potential bearish continuation, with a possible sell entry below $0.64211, targeting the $0.63855 support. A protective stop-loss above $0.64436 helps manage risk in case of a bullish rebound.
Traders should watch for a potential three black crows pattern, signaling continued bearish dominance if the next few candles close lower.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64211
Take Profit – 0.63855
Stop Loss – 0.64436
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$356/ -$225
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$22
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price holding trendline and 50 EMA confluence
- Bearish engulfing rejected resistance at $0.64788
- RSI near midline; breakout confirmation needed for bullish continuation
AUD/USD is trading just above its ascending trendline support at $0.64436, attempting to hold its recent bullish structure after forming a series of higher lows throughout early May.
The pair surged from the $0.63737 low, forming a minor ascending channel, and recently printed a bearish engulfing candle after stalling below resistance at $0.64788.
Despite that rejection, price remains supported by both the trendline and the 50-period EMA at $0.64569, with bulls defending this confluence area aggressively.
From a candlestick perspective, the current pause is characterized by a spinning top and long wicks to both sides, suggesting indecision. The RSI, currently at 43.46, shows mild bearish pressure but no divergence.
A move back above the $0.64699 pivot would tilt the structure in favor of another push higher, particularly if accompanied by a bullish engulfing or a breakout candle with volume confirmation.
Should AUD/USD hold above the $0.64436 area and break above the $0.64788 ceiling, the next major resistance lies at $0.64933, followed by $0.65151. Conversely, a break below $0.64436 would expose the pair to downside risks toward $0.64234 and $0.64193.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64436
Take Profit – 0.64788
Stop Loss – 0.64234
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$352/ -$202
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$20
AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair has pulled back from a five-month high of 0.6493, slipping to around 0.6450 level. However, this decline comes as the US dollar strengthens ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) anticipated monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Although a pause in interest rate hikes is expected, market attention remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, especially amid uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and President Donald Trump's calls for rate cuts.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Uncertainty and Trade Negotiation Hopes
Investor sentiment surrounding the dollar has remained strong in anticipation of the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, where it is widely expected to hold rates steady.
However, market participants are focused on Powell’s comments, particularly in light of ongoing tariff-related uncertainties.
President Trump is pushing for aggressive rate cuts, urging the Fed to change policies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that trade deals with other countries are close, but Trump ruled out talks with China's President Xi this week. China's Commerce Ministry is reviewing US trade proposals.
On the data front, the US ISM Services PMI showed a rise to 51.6 in April, beating expectations of 50.6.
This increase is reflective of stronger demand, with the New Orders Index climbing to 52.3, signaling optimism about economic activity despite looming trade risks.
Australia Faces Rate Cut Expectations Amid Economic Recovery Signals
On the Australian front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained support after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won a second term in the 2025 Federal Election.
His victory promises a government focused on addressing cost-of-living issues, investing in renewable energy, and implementing tax cuts and healthcare reforms.
These policies are expected to aid economic recovery. However, pressure is still on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider rate cuts.
Meanwhile, Westpac’s CEO believes that the worst of consumer and business stress is over, supporting optimism about Australia’s economic outlook.
However, the National Australia Bank (NAB) forecasts a 50 basis point rate cut by the RBA in May, which could put downward pressure on the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading just above its ascending trendline support at $0.64436, attempting to hold its recent bullish structure after forming a series of higher lows throughout early May.
The pair surged from the $0.63737 low, forming a minor ascending channel, and recently printed a bearish engulfing candle after stalling below resistance at $0.64788.
Despite that rejection, price remains supported by both the trendline and the 50-period EMA at $0.64569, with bulls defending this confluence area aggressively.
From a candlestick perspective, the current pause is characterized by a spinning top and long wicks to both sides, suggesting indecision. The RSI, currently at 43.46, shows mild bearish pressure but no divergence.
A move back above the $0.64699 pivot would tilt the structure in favor of another push higher, particularly if accompanied by a bullish engulfing or a breakout candle with volume confirmation.
Should AUD/USD hold above the $0.64436 area and break above the $0.64788 ceiling, the next major resistance lies at $0.64933, followed by $0.65151. Conversely, a break below $0.64436 would expose the pair to downside risks toward $0.64234 and $0.64193.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish engulfing candle below trendline signals downside continuation.
- RSI points lower, confirming bearish momentum.
- Entry below $0.63985 targets $0.63659, stop-loss above $0.64205.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading under pressure near $0.63900 after rejecting key resistance at $0.64192. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline that has contained rallies since April 15, reinforcing the short-term bearish structure.
The recent rejection forms a lower high near $0.64205, just beneath a confluence of resistance levels and the 50-hour SMA, currently at $0.63974, acting as dynamic resistance.
The current candlestick structure reveals bearish continuation potential, with a strong bearish engulfing candle forming after multiple indecisive attempts to break the $0.64192 zone.
The RSI has turned lower from 53.38 and now prints at 44.84, suggesting waning bullish momentum and no divergence—aligning with broader bearish sentiment.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63662, followed by $0.63487 and then $0.63335. If the pair breaches $0.63659 with follow-through, the move could extend to test April’s lows.
The confluence of the descending trendline and failure to establish higher highs reaffirms bearish bias. A confirmed break below $0.63985 would validate short entries, targeting $0.63659 while capping risk with a stop-loss above $0.64205.
With both price and RSI failing to push higher and no bullish reversal patterns present (e.g., Doji, Hammer, or Piercing Line), the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Unless price recovers and sustains above the 50 SMA, intraday rallies may continue to be sold into.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63985
Take Profit – 0.63659
Stop Loss – 0.64205
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$326/ -$220
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$32/ -$22
AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair faced downward pressure and remain under pressure around 0.6384 level as traders remained cautious ahead of the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. However, the Australian Dollar found some support following the release of Australia’s strong trade balance data.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US Economic Weakness and Trade Optimism
On the US front, the US dollar is benefitting from a combination of factors, including growing optimism over US trade talks. President Donald Trump signaled a high likelihood of reaching a trade deal with China, with the possibility of future agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan. His remarks came after Beijing exempted certain US goods from its hefty tariffs, fueling expectations of an easing in trade tensions.
Moreover, the US economic outlook remains a key driver of USD strength. Recent data indicated a contraction in US GDP, with a 0.3% annualized decline in Q1 2025, missing expectations of growth.
Despite this, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, strengthened to around 99.70, extending its rally for the third consecutive day. This upward momentum was fueled by softening market expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
AUD/USD Supported by Australia’s Robust Trade Surplus
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar received support from the country’s trade data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a substantial trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, well above the forecasted AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion.
This strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports, with imports declining by 2.2%. The data bolstered the Australian Dollar, offering relief amid a cautious global economic outlook.
Furthermore, Australia’s inflation data also helped support the AUD. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025 rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%.
The annual CPI increase of 2.4% also surpassed forecasts, which could indicate that inflationary pressures are not as subdued as previously anticipated. As a result, market expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have softened.
RBA’s Policy Outlook and US Tariffs Impact on AUD/USD
Despite the encouraging trade and inflation data, the Australian dollar faces challenges as markets remain wary of potential economic fallout from US tariffs. Moreover, the RBA’s cautious stance on further rate cuts amid persistent inflation pressures suggests that Australia’s economy is still under strain, limiting the upside for the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading under pressure near $0.63900 after rejecting key resistance at $0.64192. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline that has contained rallies since April 15, reinforcing the short-term bearish structure.
The recent rejection forms a lower high near $0.64205, just beneath a confluence of resistance levels and the 50-hour SMA, currently at $0.63974, acting as dynamic resistance.
The current candlestick structure reveals bearish continuation potential, with a strong bearish engulfing candle forming after multiple indecisive attempts to break the $0.64192 zone.
The RSI has turned lower from 53.38 and now prints at 44.84, suggesting waning bullish momentum and no divergence—aligning with broader bearish sentiment.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63662, followed by $0.63487 and then $0.63335. If the pair breaches $0.63659 with follow-through, the move could extend to test April’s lows.
The confluence of the descending trendline and failure to establish higher highs reaffirms bearish bias. A confirmed break below $0.63985 would validate short entries, targeting $0.63659 while capping risk with a stop-loss above $0.64205.
With both price and RSI failing to push higher and no bullish reversal patterns present (e.g., Doji, Hammer, or Piercing Line), the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Unless price recovers and sustains above the 50 SMA, intraday rallies may continue to be sold into.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish structure supported by higher lows and rising trendline.
- RSI near 59 signals healthy momentum without overbought pressure.
- A breakout above $0.64350 may trigger a rally to $0.64501.
AUD/USD continues to consolidate within a well-defined horizontal channel, supported by an ascending trendline that’s held since April 24.
Price recently bounced off the $0.6400 handle and is now hovering above the key intraday pivot at $0.64151 — the proposed entry level. Buyers will need a firm break and close above $0.64350 to target the next resistance at $0.64501, followed by $0.64691.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.64020 (50 SMA), with $0.63955 and $0.63707 acting as deeper structural floors. Candlestick action near support shows a bullish rejection wick followed by a minor engulfing candle, signaling a shift in short-term momentum back to the upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.79, staying comfortably above midline without being overbought. No bearish divergence is present, suggesting momentum could favor a continuation move higher.
Price structure also shows higher lows since April 23, aligning with the ascending trendline — a classic early bull trend formation.
There’s a minor supply zone between $0.64300 and $0.64450, and price has tested it twice, forming short wicks to the upside — watch for a clean breakout here before scaling in aggressively. The 50 SMA at $0.64020 is now sloping upward, adding confluence to the bullish thesis.
If buyers hold above $0.64151, this structure suggests another attempt toward $0.64501 is likely — but patience is key as resistance remains sticky.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64151
Take Profit – 0.64501
Stop Loss – 0.63955
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$350/ -$196
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$19
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6411 level, hitting the intra-day low of 0.6409 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the strength of the US Dollar, which has been supported by easing global trade tensions and shifting market sentiments.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid US-China Trade Optimism, but Uncertainty Persists
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is currently trading around 99.20, reflecting the strength of the US Dollar. This recent rally is largely driven by improved global trade sentiment.
US President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has started exempting certain US products from its steep 125% tariffs.
These developments have fueled optimism that the prolonged trade war between the US and China may be nearing a resolution.
Despite these optimistic remarks, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy firmly denied any ongoing negotiations with the US over tariffs, asserting that the two nations are not in talks. This has left markets uncertain about the future of US-China trade relations, keeping the pressure on the AUD.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Australia's Inflation Report and Ongoing US-China Trade Tensions
Another factor that has been putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the upcoming inflation report from Australia, set for release on Wednesday.
Traders are closely watching this data, as it could influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
There is speculation that the RBA may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in May to mitigate the effects of US tariffs, which would add downward pressure on the Australian Dollar in the short term.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US-China trade conflict continues to create uncertainty. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that talks with China are ongoing, no deal has been reached yet.
The US is also working to ease the impact of automotive tariffs, but these efforts have not stopped the growing trade tensions.
If the situation escalates further, the US Dollar could also face pressure, especially if China retaliates with tariffs or other measures. Traders will keep a close eye on these developments, as they could influence both currencies.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD continues to consolidate within a well-defined horizontal channel, supported by an ascending trendline that’s held since April 24.
Price recently bounced off the $0.6400 handle and is now hovering above the key intraday pivot at $0.64151 — the proposed entry level. Buyers will need a firm break and close above $0.64350 to target the next resistance at $0.64501, followed by $0.64691.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.64020 (50 SMA), with $0.63955 and $0.63707 acting as deeper structural floors. Candlestick action near support shows a bullish rejection wick followed by a minor engulfing candle, signaling a shift in short-term momentum back to the upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.79, staying comfortably above midline without being overbought. No bearish divergence is present, suggesting momentum could favor a continuation move higher.
Price structure also shows higher lows since April 23, aligning with the ascending trendline — a classic early bull trend formation.
There’s a minor supply zone between $0.64300 and $0.64450, and price has tested it twice, forming short wicks to the upside — watch for a clean breakout here before scaling in aggressively. The 50 SMA at $0.64020 is now sloping upward, adding confluence to the bullish thesis.
If buyers hold above $0.64151, this structure suggests another attempt toward $0.64501 is likely — but patience is key as resistance remains sticky.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in May, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to show resilience.
The AUD/USD pair remains in an upward trend, trading near 0.6389, amid a weaker US Dollar (USD) and mixed US economic data.
AUD/USD Strengthened by Weaker USD and Soft US Economic Data
However, the main driver behind the AUD/USD's upward momentum is the weakness in the US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent mixed US economic data.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book for April revealed signs of a weakening economy, particularly in consumer spending and the labor market, which has started to show signs of softening.
Many US districts reported flat or slightly declining employment levels, which raised concerns about the broader economic outlook.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, trading near 99.60 after registering gains in previous sessions.
The weaker USD, in combination with disappointing data from the S&P Global PMI for April, which showed a slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors, has added downward pressure on the Greenback. These developments have made the USD less attractive, benefiting the Australian Dollar.
Potential RBA Rate Cut Weighs on the AUD, but Economic Resilience Caps Losses
Despite the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut from the RBA at its May 20 meeting, the AUD/USD remains relatively strong. Westpac's forecast of a rate cut comes in response to mixed domestic economic conditions, although recent data suggests continued resilience in the Australian economy.
For instance, Judo Bank’s preliminary data showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, with manufacturing and services both showing growth.
Although the expected rate cut might put some downward pressure on the Australian Dollar, the outlook for the AUD remains supported by Australia's robust economic data compared to the softer US economy.
As traders anticipate further easing from the Fed, with rate cuts possibly extending into the second half of 2023, the AUD continues to hold its ground.
US-China Trade Tensions and Global Sentiment Impacting the AUD/USD
On the flip side, mixed US economic data combined with ongoing US-China trade tensions have made global markets cautious. Although President Trump has shown a willingness to discuss tariffs with China, the trade situation remains uncertain.
This uncertainty has caused market volatility and raised questions about future tariffs. As a result, the US dollar is under pressure, which has given more support to the Australian dollar (AUD).
Looking ahead, despite the potential rate cut by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain supported as long as the US Dollar faces pressure from weaker economic data and global uncertainties.
As markets continue to digest the Fed’s more dovish outlook and the ongoing trade discussions, the Australian Dollar stands to benefit from its relatively stronger economic performance.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilizing after defending the ascending trendline support near 0.6349. The price has bounced off this level multiple times and is attempting to hold above it once again, forming a potential higher low. The bullish setup remains valid if the pair sustains above 0.6349.
The 50-period SMA at 0.6393 still acts as immediate dynamic resistance. A break above this level would clear the way toward the 0.6435 resistance. On the downside, any sustained move below 0.6321 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
The RSI sits at 42.45 — slightly bearish but curling upward, hinting at early recovery momentum. A close above 0.6395 would confirm short-term bullish strength, while failure to reclaim the 50-SMA could lead to range-bound trading.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Trendline Holding: Price defends rising trendline; buyers may be stepping in at 0.6349.
- Neutral RSI: At 42.45, there's room for a bounce but no strong signal yet.
- Key Resistance: 50-SMA and 0.6395 remain critical for further upside.
AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilizing after defending the ascending trendline support near 0.6349. The price has bounced off this level multiple times and is attempting to hold above it once again, forming a potential higher low. The bullish setup remains valid if the pair sustains above 0.6349.
The 50-period SMA at 0.6393 still acts as immediate dynamic resistance. A break above this level would clear the way toward the 0.6435 resistance. On the downside, any sustained move below 0.6321 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
The RSI sits at 42.45 — slightly bearish but curling upward, hinting at early recovery momentum. A close above 0.6395 would confirm short-term bullish strength, while failure to reclaim the 50-SMA could lead to range-bound trading.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63491
Take Profit – 0.63945
Stop Loss – 0.63215
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$454/ -$276
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$45/ -$27