EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades well above the 50 EMA, maintaining bullish strength
- RSI near 70 warns of potential short-term pullback
- Key breakout above $1.13960 opens the door to $1.14895 and $1.15533 targets
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13960
Take Profit – 1.14895
Stop Loss – 1.13330
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$935/ -$630
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$63
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained it upward trend and surged to near 1.1425 level. However, the euro showed impressive strength as the US Dollar (USD) continued its decline amid increasing fears of stagflation in the United States, where inflation is rising, economic growth is slowing, and unemployment is cooling down.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Stagflation Concerns and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants anticipate stagflation in the US, particularly after the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, its lowest since June 2022.
The decline reflects deepening concerns about a potential recession as US households worry about escalating trade tensions with China.
On Friday, China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US goods to 125%, compounding fears of a trade war that could hinder investment and economic growth.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's 12-month forward inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, up from 5% in March, signaling rising concerns over persistent inflation.
These negative economic signals are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may struggle to bring inflation under control, contributing to the weakening of the USD.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Euro Strength Amid US-China Tariff Tensions
The euro has continued to strengthen as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) this Thursday. If this happens, it would be the seventh consecutive 25 bps cut since June.
Many traders are confident that the ECB will ease its monetary policy further, as they believe the US-driven trade war will not cause inflation in the Eurozone.
Moreover, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to shift some of China’s exports to the Eurozone. This benefits Eurozone importers, who will choose Chinese products over domestically made goods due to their cost advantage. This shift is seen as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs on global inflation, providing further support for the euro.
ECB officials, including Gediminas Šimkus, have suggested that cutting interest rates could help boost economic growth in the face of trade tensions. Šimkus also emphasized the need for a "less restrictive policy" to address challenges caused by the tariff dispute.
Furthermore, EU finance ministers have agreed to present a unified stance in trade talks with the US, which is expected to increase the euro’s appeal.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum and surged to the intra-day high of 1.1473, touching its highest level in three years. However, the sharp rally was driven by growing pressure on the US Dollar amid escalating trade tensions and renewed support for the Euro following the European Union’s decision to pause counter-tariffs against the United States.
EUR/USD Rally Fueled by Intensifying US-China Trade War and EU’s 90-Day Tariff Pause
However, the major catalyst behind the surge in EUR/USD was the market’s reaction to China’s decision to hike tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, a move that deepened fears of a prolonged US-China trade war.
This escalation has heightened the risk of a US recession, prompting investors to price in a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, the Euro found additional support after the European Union announced a 90-day pause on countermeasures against US tariffs.
This move followed President Trump’s earlier decision to suspend planned tariffs on multiple countries, signaling a potential thaw in transatlantic trade tensions and boosting confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
EUR/USD Supported by Fed Rate Cut Bets and Dovish Outlook
Traders are increasingly betting on a shift in US monetary policy, with expectations rising for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The trade war risks, coupled with softening US economic indicators, have pushed markets to anticipate a more accommodative Fed stance in the coming months.
Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Their comments will be closely watched for clues on future rate policy, especially as investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
A stronger-than-expected reading could provide some support to the US Dollar and limit further EUR/USD gains.
Eyes on US PPI, Consumer Sentiment, and Fed Commentary
Looking ahead, traders are now focused on upcoming US data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Both reports are scheduled for release later today and will be closely watched for clues on inflation and consumer confidence.
Moreover, the comments from Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, could offer fresh insight into the central bank's policy path.
Hence, the stronger-than-expected set of data or a hawkish tone from Fed speakers may limit EUR/USD’s upside in the near term, but for now, the pair remains firmly in bullish territory.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues its bullish breakout, pushing toward the $1.13830 region after clearing the key $1.12804 pivot. The pair is riding a strong upside channel, supported by a steep RSI climb currently at 76.22—well into overbought territory. Still, momentum remains in the bulls’ favor following yesterday’s soft U.S. inflation data, which weighed on the dollar and bolstered euro demand.
Price is now pressing against immediate resistance near $1.13830, with the next target at $1.14111. A sustained break above this level could expose the $1.14483 zone. On the downside, $1.12804 now acts as a critical support level, and below that, $1.12021 is the line in the sand for short-term bulls.
Technically, the pair is well supported above the 50 SMA, currently at $1.10382, and has room to run if risk sentiment stays upbeat. However, with RSI flashing overbought, traders should be cautious of short-term pullbacks or profit-taking near the highs. Momentum remains strong but needs confirmation through a daily close above $1.14111.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD breaks higher above $1.12804 with momentum favoring bulls
- RSI suggests short-term overbought risks—watch for minor pullbacks
- Targeting $1.14111 with key support now forming at $1.12804
EUR/USD continues its bullish breakout, pushing toward the $1.13830 region after clearing the key $1.12804 pivot. The pair is riding a strong upside channel, supported by a steep RSI climb currently at 76.22—well into overbought territory. Still, momentum remains in the bulls’ favor following yesterday’s soft U.S. inflation data, which weighed on the dollar and bolstered euro demand.
Price is now pressing against immediate resistance near $1.13830, with the next target at $1.14111. A sustained break above this level could expose the $1.14483 zone. On the downside, $1.12804 now acts as a critical support level, and below that, $1.12021 is the line in the sand for short-term bulls.
Technically, the pair is well supported above the 50 SMA, currently at $1.10382, and has room to run if risk sentiment stays upbeat. However, with RSI flashing overbought, traders should be cautious of short-term pullbacks or profit-taking near the highs. Momentum remains strong but needs confirmation through a daily close above $1.14111.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.12804
Take Profit – 1.14111
Stop Loss – 1.12021
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1307/ -$783
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$78
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair moved upward, reaching close to the 1.1065 level. This rise happened as the US Dollar (USD) weakened against the Euro (EUR) following the implementation of US President Donald Trump's new tariff policy.
The market is also waiting for more clues about the US economy, with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) official Thomas Barkin. These events have added uncertainty and are keeping traders cautious.
US Tariffs Weigh on Dollar, Boosting EUR/USD Amid Global Trade Concerns
On the US front, a new wave of tariffs came into effect on Wednesday morning, introduced by the Trump administration on imports from 86 countries. These tariffs range between 11% and 84% and apply to a wide variety of products. This move has increased global trade tensions and raised concerns about a possible recession due to Trump's protectionist policies.
As a result, the US Dollar has come under pressure. With the USD weakening, the Euro is gaining strength, which is helping push the EUR/USD pair higher. Investors are becoming more worried about the long-term impact of these tariffs, as they could lead to deeper global trade conflicts and slow down the global economy.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Limit Euro's Upside Despite EUR/USD Gains
On the European side, the rise in the EUR/USD pair is being tempered by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates soon. The ECB's decision is largely driven by concerns that Trump’s tariffs could push the Eurozone into recession.
Investors are now pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB's upcoming policy meeting on April 17, according to Bloomberg data. This sentiment has increased from 70% in previous weeks, reflecting mounting fears of a slowdown in the Eurozone economy.
Despite these concerns, the market is cautious about how much further the EUR/USD can climb, as any rate cut by the ECB might cap the upside for the Euro. The central bank's rate-cutting measures are expected to provide some relief to the economy but could also limit the EUR’s upward momentum.
Traders Eye FOMC Minutes and Fed Comments Amid Trade Tensions and ECB Policies
Looking forward, traders will closely watch the FOMC minutes and any comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to understand the possible direction of US monetary policy.
The market is especially focused on how the Fed might react to rising trade tensions and increasing fears of a recession.
The ongoing global trade conflict, along with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish approach, may continue to put pressure on the US Dollar and support gains in the EUR/USD pair over the next few days. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is holding firm above the $1.1016 breakout zone, with bullish momentum picking up after a period of consolidation. The pair is trading around $1.1054, continuing its upward move after bouncing off trendline and 50-SMA support near $1.0906. This area remains a key inflection point for buyers, as it aligns with the broader ascending trendline visible since early March.
A clear break above $1.1016 has shifted near-term sentiment back in favor of the bulls. The next immediate resistance stands at $1.1147, which also aligns with last week's swing high. A break above that could open the door toward $1.1220 and eventually $1.1293 if upside momentum continues.
On the flip side, $1.1016 now serves as a short-term support level, with a protective cushion at $1.0938. Below that, $1.0906 marks the base of the current bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing at 62, suggesting strong bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. This leaves room for the rally to continue, especially if the pair can sustain above $1.1016 through the upcoming sessions.
The setup remains constructive, favoring long positions above $1.1016 with a take-profit target near $1.1147 and a stop-loss placed at $1.0938. A break below $1.0938 would likely invalidate the current bullish bias and put pressure back on the $1.0906 zone.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD reclaims $1.1016, signaling renewed bullish strength.
- RSI near 62 points to momentum with more room to run.
- Break above $1.1147 could target $1.1220 in the short term.
EUR/USD is holding firm above the $1.1016 breakout zone, with bullish momentum picking up after a period of consolidation. The pair is trading around $1.1054, continuing its upward move after bouncing off trendline and 50-SMA support near $1.0906. This area remains a key inflection point for buyers, as it aligns with the broader ascending trendline visible since early March.
A clear break above $1.1016 has shifted near-term sentiment back in favor of the bulls. The next immediate resistance stands at $1.1147, which also aligns with last week's swing high. A break above that could open the door toward $1.1220 and eventually $1.1293 if upside momentum continues.
On the flip side, $1.1016 now serves as a short-term support level, with a protective cushion at $1.0938. Below that, $1.0906 marks the base of the current bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing at 62, suggesting strong bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. This leaves room for the rally to continue, especially if the pair can sustain above $1.1016 through the upcoming sessions.
The setup remains constructive, favoring long positions above $1.1016 with a take-profit target near $1.1147 and a stop-loss placed at $1.0938. A break below $1.0938 would likely invalidate the current bullish bias and put pressure back on the $1.0906 zone.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.10169
Take Profit – 1.11476
Stop Loss – 1.09386
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1307/ -$783
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$78
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds trendline support above $1.09519
- Break above $1.10484 may confirm bullish continuation
- RSI and EMA support ongoing upside momentum
The EUR/USD is attempting to reclaim upside momentum against the U.S. dollar following a healthy pullback from $1.10484. Price action remains supported by a firm uptrend structure, with a rising trendline dating back to mid-March and the 50 EMA at $1.08619 now acting as dynamic support.
After rebounding off the $1.09519 level—a key horizontal and psychological zone—EUR/USD is showing renewed buying interest as it tests the pivot area near $1.1000. The recovery has paused just shy of immediate resistance at $1.10484, and a clean breakout above this zone would clear the path toward $1.11480 and $1.12208.
RSI is currently at 59.40 and turning higher, suggesting building momentum without being overbought. The pair remains technically constructive as long as price stays above the 50 EMA and ascending trendline. A break below $1.09519 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias, exposing downside risk toward $1.08617 and $1.07512.
Overall, the recent dip appears corrective, and the bullish trend remains intact unless key support levels fail. If bulls manage to secure a decisive close above $1.10484, continuation toward $1.11511 becomes increasingly probable, with higher resistance zones within reach.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09504
Take Profit – 1.11511
Stop Loss – 1.08632
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2007/ -$872
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$87
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair gained bullish traction and edged higher, trading above the 1.1050 level.
However, the reason for its upward trend could be attributed to the overall weakness in the US dollar, as well as improving market sentiment in the Eurozone.
Investors are reacting to mixed economic data from both regions, but the recent optimism around the European economy is giving the euro some support.
At the same time, uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path is putting pressure on the dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to climb gradually.
Eurozone Retail Sales Growth and Germany's Industrial Sector Struggles Impact Euro Sentiment
On the data front, Eurozone retail sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in February, outpacing market expectations of 1.8%.
However, retail sales showed slower-than-expected growth on a monthly basis, with a mere 0.3% increase compared to the expected 0.5%.
These figures highlight some resilience in consumer demand but also point to some potential weakness in the broader economic recovery.
Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial sector has taken a step back. The industrial production in Europe's largest economy contracted by 1.3% in February, marking a sharp contrast to the 2% rebound in January.
In the meantime, the year-on-year industrial output plunged 4%, further indicating the ongoing struggles in the industrial sector.
Although Germany’s trade balance for February showed a slight improvement, coming in at EUR 17.7 billion, it fell short of market expectations, contributing to the cautious sentiment surrounding the Euro.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Recession Fears and Rate Cut Expectations
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US dollar continues to face headwinds amid growing concerns of an impending recession. Despite a slight recovery, the USD struggles to capitalize on the momentum and starts the week weaker.
However, the key factor weighing on the dollar is the increasing probability that the US economy might enter a recession, which could force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle.
The markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, which has led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, further undermining the greenback.
US-EU Trade Tensions Weigh on EUR/USD Outlook Amid Economic Data Focus
Another factor that has been impacting the EUR/USD pair is the growing risk of a trade war between the US and the European Union. The EU is planning to introduce retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to US duties on steel, aluminum, and cars.
These trade tensions are adding more uncertainty to global markets. While this could increase demand for the safe-haven US dollar, it may also limit the euro’s ability to rise further.
Looking ahead, traders will be watching economic data from the Eurozone, such as German industrial production, trade balance, and the Sentix Investor Confidence report.
However, the main factor likely to drive the EUR/USD pair in the near term will be how global trade tensions unfold, as any escalation could quickly shift market sentiment and affect both currencies.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is attempting to reclaim upside momentum against the U.S. dollar following a healthy pullback from $1.10484. Price action remains supported by a firm uptrend structure, with a rising trendline dating back to mid-March and the 50 EMA at $1.08619 now acting as dynamic support.
After rebounding off the $1.09519 level—a key horizontal and psychological zone—EUR/USD is showing renewed buying interest as it tests the pivot area near $1.1000. The recovery has paused just shy of immediate resistance at $1.10484, and a clean breakout above this zone would clear the path toward $1.11480 and $1.12208.
RSI is currently at 59.40 and turning higher, suggesting building momentum without being overbought. The pair remains technically constructive as long as price stays above the 50 EMA and ascending trendline. A break below $1.09519 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias, exposing downside risk toward $1.08617 and $1.07512.
Overall, the recent dip appears corrective, and the bullish trend remains intact unless key support levels fail. If bulls manage to secure a decisive close above $1.10484, continuation toward $1.11511 becomes increasingly probable, with higher resistance zones within reach.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds firm above $1.1013, maintaining bullish structure
- RSI above 70 signals strong buying, though overbought
- Price target remains $1.1220, with support at $1.0893
The EUR/USD pair is advancing firmly, trading around $1.1062 after clearing the key psychological resistance at $1.1013. This breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, aided by a strong RSI reading of 72.24, which reflects overbought conditions but also sustained demand.
The pair is comfortably positioned above the 50-day SMA at $1.0626, with price action trending well within an ascending channel.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1147, with bulls eyeing extended targets at $1.1220 and $1.1286. On the downside, a break below $1.1013 would shift focus to $1.0943 and $1.0893, while $1.0783 serves as a deeper support level. Despite overbought RSI, the bullish structure remains intact unless $1.1013 is breached to the downside.
As long as EUR/USD holds above its pivot, momentum favors continued upside—particularly if macro data supports the euro or weakens the dollar.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.10127
Take Profit – 1.12214
Stop Loss – 1.08934
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2087/ -$1193
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$208/ -$119
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to sustain its bullish rally and edged lower around the 1.0965 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which making a rebound after a previous sell-off triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Moreover, traders seem cautious ahead of important economic data, including the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, has bounced back above the 102.00 level after falling to a six-month low near 101.25. This recovery highlights the strength of the USD, despite ongoing economic uncertainties, especially related to the trade war.
Economists predict that the US economy added 135,000 jobs in March, a slight decrease from the 151,000 in February.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.9% year-on-year, a slower pace compared to February's 4% increase.
While the labor market data is not expected to significantly change expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, inflation concerns continue to dominate investor focus.
However, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are increasingly predicting a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, driven by the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has dropped to 65.8%, down from 81.5% a week earlier. This shift has fueled the recent strength of the USD, contributing to the EUR/USD pair’s pullback.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Tariff Concerns and ECB Policy Expectations
On the flip side, the Euro (EUR) is also under pressure, as investors expect Trump’s tariffs to negatively affect the Eurozone’s economic growth.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the consequences of the tariffs would be “dire” for millions of people worldwide, adding that the Eurozone is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with the US fail.
On top of tariff concerns, market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ease its monetary policy further in April have added to the EUR’s decline.
ECB officials believe that inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs is unlikely to persist, clearing the way for continued easing.
Meanwhile, German economic data is fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s economic health. The Federal Statistics Office reported that Germany’s factory orders remained flat in February, following a significant 5.5% decline in January.
This stagnation in Germany’s manufacturing sector suggests a lack of momentum, further weighing on the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is advancing firmly, trading around $1.1062 after clearing the key psychological resistance at $1.1013. This breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, aided by a strong RSI reading of 72.24, which reflects overbought conditions but also sustained demand.
The pair is comfortably positioned above the 50-day SMA at $1.0626, with price action trending well within an ascending channel.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1147, with bulls eyeing extended targets at $1.1220 and $1.1286. On the downside, a break below $1.1013 would shift focus to $1.0943 and $1.0893, while $1.0783 serves as a deeper support level. Despite overbought RSI, the bullish structure remains intact unless $1.1013 is breached to the downside.
As long as EUR/USD holds above its pivot, momentum favors continued upside—particularly if macro data supports the euro or weakens the dollar.
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