EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded sharply to 1.1260, recovering from a more than three-week low near 1.1200 earlier in the day.
This recovery was driven by a retreat in the US dollar, which saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) correct to around 100.40 from its recent high of 100.85.
The pullback in the Greenback came amid growing caution ahead of the highly anticipated US-China trade talks scheduled for Saturday, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach.
US-China Trade Talks in Switzerland Raise Hopes for Tariff De-escalation
However, the market is closely watching the trade negotiations between the US and China, which are set to take place in Switzerland.
These talks have significant implications for global trade, as China is the second-largest importer of US goods.
Any potential de-escalation in the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing could have widespread economic ramifications, particularly in light of the downward revisions in global growth projections that have stemmed from these tensions.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism that the tariff war would de-escalate after the talks, while also noting that reducing tariffs is a primary goal for China.
This sentiment was echoed by reports suggesting that President Trump may soon lower tariffs on China to around 50-54%, though this has not yet been confirmed by the White House.
EUR/USD Strength Driven by ECB Confidence Amid Economic Concerns
On the EUR front. the Euro’s outperformance also played a key role in pushing EUR/USD higher. Despite concerns surrounding the Eurozone's economic outlook, the Euro advanced against its peers.
European Central Bank (ECB) officials showed confidence that inflation would return to the ECB’s target of 2%, but acknowledged challenges in achieving this goal.
Finnish central bank governor and ECB policymaker Olli Rehn remarked that the inflation target might require a more accommodative monetary policy if growth conditions worsen.
Although the Euro typically underperforms when ECB officials lean towards policy easing, the current resilience in the Euro was bolstered by Rehn’s belief that inflation is on track.
However, this sentiment was tempered by concerns over the economic outlook, with Rehn suggesting that further rate cuts could be necessary to hit the ECB’s inflation target.
EU Tariff Countermeasures Against the US Heighten Geopolitical Tensions
On the flip side, the Euro also faces potential headwinds due to the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and the EU.
On Thursday, the European Commission launched a consultation paper outlining possible countermeasures against US tariffs, with the EU considering retaliatory measures on up to €95 billion of US imports.
This move comes amid heightened geopolitical risks, as any failure to resolve trade tensions between the EU and the US could have implications for the Eurozone’s inflation and growth outlook.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has staged a sharp recovery from the $1.11990 support, forming a bullish engulfing candle that signals potential upside.
The pair is now approaching the $1.12701 pivot point, with the 50 SMA at $1.12937 acting as immediate resistance. This area aligns closely with the recent breakdown level, making it a critical test for bullish momentum.
If buyers can push through this zone, the next resistance is at $1.12809, followed by a more significant barrier around $1.13058.
Technically, the RSI is climbing from oversold levels, currently at 44.81, indicating a potential momentum shift. The recent series of higher lows adds to the bullish case, suggesting the pair may attempt a larger recovery.
However, the overall trend remains bearish, as the 50 SMA continues to cap gains, and a break below $1.12332 could expose the pair to deeper losses toward $1.11990 and $1.11683.
In the short term, a move above the 50 SMA at $1.12937 is needed to confirm a more meaningful recovery, potentially opening the door to $1.13361.
However, failure to clear this barrier could see the pair resume its broader downtrend, with the $1.11990 support acting as a critical floor.
A sustained move above $1.12701 could trigger a push toward $1.12809, while a drop below $1.12332 risks a retest of $1.11990.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Reversal: Engulfing candle signals potential upside.
- Momentum Shift: RSI recovering from oversold territory.
- Critical Resistance: $1.12937 remains a key barrier for bulls.
EUR/USD has staged a sharp recovery from the $1.11990 support, forming a bullish engulfing candle that signals potential upside.
The pair is now approaching the $1.12701 pivot point, with the 50 SMA at $1.12937 acting as immediate resistance. This area aligns closely with the recent breakdown level, making it a critical test for bullish momentum.
If buyers can push through this zone, the next resistance is at $1.12809, followed by a more significant barrier around $1.13058.
Technically, the RSI is climbing from oversold levels, currently at 44.81, indicating a potential momentum shift. The recent series of higher lows adds to the bullish case, suggesting the pair may attempt a larger recovery.
However, the overall trend remains bearish, as the 50 SMA continues to cap gains, and a break below $1.12332 could expose the pair to deeper losses toward $1.11990 and $1.11683.
In the short term, a move above the 50 SMA at $1.12937 is needed to confirm a more meaningful recovery, potentially opening the door to $1.13361.
However, failure to clear this barrier could see the pair resume its broader downtrend, with the $1.11990 support acting as a critical floor.
A sustained move above $1.12701 could trigger a push toward $1.12809, while a drop below $1.12332 risks a retest of $1.11990.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.12332
Take Profit – 1.12809
Stop Loss – 1.11990
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$477/ -$342
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$47/ -$34
EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair remained flat near the 1.1370 mark, consolidating within a tight range as investors awaited the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The pair's movement reflects broader market indecision, driven by both political stabilization in Europe and economic uncertainties in the US.
EUR/USD Stability Backed by German Political Clarity and Euro Strength
On the EUR front, the shared currency found some support following the confirmation of Conservative leader Friedrich Merz as Germany’s new Chancellor. Merz's successful second bid has reduced fears of political instability in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
Markets reacted positively to expectations that his leadership will advance previously approved defense spending and economic support measures, potentially strengthening the Euro and German assets.
Despite this, the Euro's upside remains capped, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle in June. Policymakers remain focused on supporting the economy in the face of fresh trade-related shocks, particularly from the US.
ECB officials are prioritizing economic resilience over inflation concerns, especially with Eurozone inflation expected to return to the 2% target this year.
Weak EU Retail Sales and Tariff Concerns Weigh on the Euro
On the data front, the march EU Retail Sales disappointed, falling 0.1% month-on-month against expectations for flat growth.
The year-on-year figure also underperformed, growing only 1.5% versus a forecast of 1.6%, with previous data revised lower. These figures reflect slowing consumer activity, adding to concerns about Eurozone economic momentum.
Moreover, the European Commission is considering retaliatory tariffs in response to new US trade measures. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic confirmed that Brussels is exploring countermeasures against approximately €100 billion worth of US goods if talks fail.
Although US President Trump has delayed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days, uncertainty continues to linger, limiting EUR/USD gains.
EUR/USD Awaits Fed Decision Amid US Economic Tensions and Trump Pressure
Looking forward, traders will keep a close eye on the US Federal Reserve, as markets expect interest rates to stay at 4.25%-4.50%. The CME FedWatch Tool fully prices in a pause, but traders will focus on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for hints about future policy.
The Fed has made it clear that there won’t be any immediate changes unless there are signs of weakness in the labor market or economic growth.
On the data front, April’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed steady job gains, which makes rate cuts less likely. Meanwhile, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, mainly due to a rise in imports ahead of new tariffs.
Former President Trump continues to push the Fed for rate cuts, criticizing Powell’s stance even with inflation easing in food and energy sectors, and even threatening Powell's removal.
Therefore, the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and the mixed economic data could strengthen the US dollar, pressuring the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading around $1.1365, consolidating within a descending wedge pattern, a structure typically associated with potential bullish reversals.
The pair is testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.1323, which has acted as dynamic support in recent sessions.
A series of higher lows on the recent bounce from the $1.1265 level suggests building bullish momentum, supported by a minor trendline connecting recent lows.
Candlestick analysis reveals a potential bullish engulfing pattern forming just above the $1.1323 support, reinforcing the bullish case.
However, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.1380, where a bearish shooting star formed recently, indicating possible short-term selling pressure.
A break above this level could open the door to the next resistance at $1.1421, aligning with the recent swing high. Beyond this, the $1.1452 level stands as a key barrier, representing a critical psychological level for bulls.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.75, just below the 60 level, suggesting the pair has room to extend its recovery before entering overbought territory.
However, a break below the immediate support at $1.1323 could trigger a deeper pullback toward $1.1298 or even the critical $1.1265 support, aligning with the lower wedge boundary.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD forming a potential bullish wedge, supporting recovery.
- RSI indicates moderate strength, supporting further gains.
- Break above $1.1380 needed for a sustained rally.
EUR/USD is trading around $1.1365, consolidating within a descending wedge pattern, a structure typically associated with potential bullish reversals.
The pair is testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.1323, which has acted as dynamic support in recent sessions.
A series of higher lows on the recent bounce from the $1.1265 level suggests building bullish momentum, supported by a minor trendline connecting recent lows.
Candlestick analysis reveals a potential bullish engulfing pattern forming just above the $1.1323 support, reinforcing the bullish case.
However, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.1380, where a bearish shooting star formed recently, indicating possible short-term selling pressure.
A break above this level could open the door to the next resistance at $1.1421, aligning with the recent swing high. Beyond this, the $1.1452 level stands as a key barrier, representing a critical psychological level for bulls.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.75, just below the 60 level, suggesting the pair has room to extend its recovery before entering overbought territory.
However, a break below the immediate support at $1.1323 could trigger a deeper pullback toward $1.1298 or even the critical $1.1265 support, aligning with the lower wedge boundary.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13489
Take Profit – 1.13993
Stop Loss – 1.13157
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$504/ -$332
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$33
EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its modest rebound and moved closer to the 1.1360 mark.
The pair found support as the US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure due to growing market caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision and renewed speculation over potential ECB rate cuts.
EUR/USD Strengthens as ECB Rate Cut Bets Stay Intact Despite Hotter Inflation
On the EUR front, the shared currency held broadly steady on the day, but optimism around additional interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) provided underlying support.
This came even after the latest Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April showed inflation rising faster than expected. In the meantime, the core HICP jumped to 2.7% year-on-year, beating both forecasts of 2.5% and the prior 2.4% reading, while headline inflation climbed to 2.2%.
Despite this, traders seem more focused on the broader economic challenges facing the Eurozone, including the possible fallout from former US President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance, rather than short-term inflation pressures.
Supporting this dovish outlook, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos commented in a recent interview that the central bank is likely to continue reducing rates, depending on the inflation trajectory.
Moreover, investor sentiment in the Eurozone improved in May, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising to -8.1 from -19.5, suggesting a mild recovery in outlook despite external risks.
US Dollar Pressured by Fed Policy Uncertainty and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar Index (DXY) dropped toward 99.80 and stayed weak within Friday’s range. Investors are being cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday.
While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, the market is paying close attention to the statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for any hints of a future policy change.
Although recent strong US jobs data and high inflation expectations may prevent the Fed from cutting rates soon, investors are also worried about the possible economic effects of former President Trump’s proposed tariffs. This adds more uncertainty to the outlook.
In addition, tensions between the US and China over trade are hurting market confidence. President Trump said some trade deals might be announced soon, but he also admitted there’s been no direct contact with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This lack of communication keeps investors concerned about potential trade disruptions.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to reclaim ground above its descending trendline, trading just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.13530.
Friday's candles printed a rejection wick near the $1.13423 resistance—right where the SMA intersects the trendline—underscoring a strong technical ceiling for now.
Price action remains capped within a bearish channel that’s been intact since the $1.14500 rejection in April.
From a structural view, the pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, preserving bearish momentum. A cluster of indecisive candles, including a spinning top and weak bullish attempt, adds weight to short bias near resistance.
The RSI sits at 46.97, slightly below neutral, with its average at 40.77—indicating a slight bearish lean but no oversold signal yet. No bullish divergence is present.
Key to the bearish outlook is the inability to sustain a close above $1.13423. A confirmed break lower from current levels could expose $1.12676 support, with further downside toward $1.12285.
However, if bulls manage a clean close above $1.13530 with strong volume, it may flip near-term sentiment and force a squeeze toward $1.13901.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD rejected at trendline and 50 SMA near $1.134
- Bearish RSI structure favors downside continuation
- A break below $1.134 could trigger a move toward $1.126
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to reclaim ground above its descending trendline, trading just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.13530.
Friday's candles printed a rejection wick near the $1.13423 resistance—right where the SMA intersects the trendline—underscoring a strong technical ceiling for now.
Price action remains capped within a bearish channel that’s been intact since the $1.14500 rejection in April.
From a structural view, the pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, preserving bearish momentum. A cluster of indecisive candles, including a spinning top and weak bullish attempt, adds weight to short bias near resistance.
The RSI sits at 46.97, slightly below neutral, with its average at 40.77—indicating a slight bearish lean but no oversold signal yet. No bullish divergence is present.
Key to the bearish outlook is the inability to sustain a close above $1.13423. A confirmed break lower from current levels could expose $1.12676 support, with further downside toward $1.12285.
However, if bulls manage a clean close above $1.13530 with strong volume, it may flip near-term sentiment and force a squeeze toward $1.13901.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.13423
Take Profit – 1.12676
Stop Loss – 1.13908
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$747/ -$485
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$74/ -$48
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains in a descending channel capped by the 50-SMA.
- RSI is rebounding but hasn’t confirmed bullish reversal.
- A break below $1.13466 could resume the downtrend toward $1.12676.
EUR/USD is trading within a well-defined descending channel, attempting a mild recovery after bottoming near $1.12676. Price is currently approaching short-term resistance near $1.13466, a level that previously acted as support.
While a small bullish impulse has developed, the pair remains below the 50-SMA at $1.13694, which continues to slope downward—reinforcing bearish pressure in the medium term.
From a candlestick perspective, the pair has not yet shown convincing bullish formations like three white soldiers, and the latest candles resemble neutral bodies rather than strong directional signals.
The RSI has turned up from oversold levels and now sits at 44.84, reflecting short-term recovery momentum. However, unless the pair clears the upper boundary of the bearish channel and sustains above the $1.13466 zone, the upside is likely to remain capped.
The broader structure still favors a continuation to the downside, especially if price fails at the current resistance and prints a bearish engulfing or another reversal signal near the 50-SMA.
A break below $1.13466 could reactivate bearish momentum toward $1.12676 and potentially $1.12285. On the flip side, a confirmed push above $1.13901 would challenge this outlook and suggest short-term trend reversal.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.13466
Take Profit – 1.12676
Stop Loss – 1.13893
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$790/ -$427
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$79/ -$42
EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD pair continued to hold steady near the 1.1320 mark, supported by a weakening US Dollar amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut and renewed trade optimism. The euro remains firm as upbeat Eurozone inflation data adds to the currency's appeal, even as the broader economic outlook remains cautious.
EUR/USD Supported by Weak USD and Easing Trade Tensions
The EUR/USD strength is largely attributed to a broad decline in the US Dollar, which is under pressure despite signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China.
Market sentiment improved after the Chinese Commerce Ministry signaled openness to resuming trade talks with Washington, urging the US to demonstrate sincerity.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump also expressed optimism about potential trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, and India, boosting global risk appetite.
Although easing trade tensions typically support the USD by improving consumer confidence and reducing inflationary risks, caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report kept the greenback under pressure.
Economists expect the US economy to add only 130K jobs in April, well below the previous reading of 228K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, while wage growth is projected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.9% annually.
Euro Gains on Hotter-Than-Expected Eurozone Inflation Data
Moreover, the pair was further boosted by stronger-than-expected preliminary inflation figures from the Eurozone. According to Eurostat, the core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, beating the forecast of 2.5%. The headline HICP also surprised to the upside, increasing 2.2% annually. On a monthly basis, core and headline HICP jumped by 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating persistent price pressures in the bloc.
Despite the inflation surprise, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to proceed with a 25 basis point rate cut in June. Policymakers remain more concerned about the economic impact of new US tariffs than inflation itself. Earlier this week, ECB’s Olli Rehn stressed the need for policy expansion and did not rule out cutting rates below the neutral level if necessary, highlighting downside risks to inflation.
EUR/USD Outlook Hinges on NFP and Central Bank Policy Expectations
Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair’s direction will be influenced by the outcome of the US NFP report and evolving market expectations for both the Fed and ECB.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s now a 58.6% probability that the Fed will lower rates in June, following a steady policy in May.
With Eurozone inflation running hotter but growth still vulnerable, any soft US data could further pressure the USD and provide near-term support to EUR/USD around the 1.1300 level.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a well-defined descending channel, attempting a mild recovery after bottoming near $1.12676. Price is currently approaching short-term resistance near $1.13466, a level that previously acted as support.
While a small bullish impulse has developed, the pair remains below the 50-SMA at $1.13694, which continues to slope downward—reinforcing bearish pressure in the medium term.
From a candlestick perspective, the pair has not yet shown convincing bullish formations like three white soldiers, and the latest candles resemble neutral bodies rather than strong directional signals.
The RSI has turned up from oversold levels and now sits at 44.84, reflecting short-term recovery momentum. However, unless the pair clears the upper boundary of the bearish channel and sustains above the $1.13466 zone, the upside is likely to remain capped.
The broader structure still favors a continuation to the downside, especially if price fails at the current resistance and prints a bearish engulfing or another reversal signal near the 50-SMA.
A break below $1.13466 could reactivate bearish momentum toward $1.12676 and potentially $1.12285. On the flip side, a confirmed push above $1.13901 would challenge this outlook and suggest short-term trend reversal.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades above rising trendline with higher lows structure intact.
- RSI and price action suggest potential upside, pending confirmation.
- Breakout above $1.13836 could trigger bullish continuation.
EUR/USD is trading within a tightening ascending structure, supported by a rising trendline from the April 23 low. The pair recently rebounded from $1.13618, just above the trendline and the proposed entry point at $1.13621, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
Price remains close to the 50-period SMA ($1.13836), which is currently acting as dynamic resistance. If this level is cleared, the next target is $1.14098, followed by stronger resistance near $1.14248.
Candlestick behavior reveals indecision, with recent spinning tops and small-bodied candles near the support zone.
However, there’s no strong reversal pattern yet—no bullish engulfing or three white soldiers—but the higher lows remain intact, keeping the bullish structure technically alive.
The RSI (14) is printing 46.88, slightly below neutral but curling upward, suggesting early bullish momentum. If RSI crosses above 50 and price clears the SMA, it would further confirm bullish intent.
A failure to hold the trendline near $1.13365 would invalidate this setup, potentially exposing the pair to a drop toward $1.13077.
For now, the setup favors a cautious long with tight risk control, watching the ascending trendline as a key inflection point. A breakout above $1.14098 may open up space for a run toward $1.14508.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13621
Take Profit – 1.14098
Stop Loss – 1.13365
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$477/ -$256
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$47/ -$25
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued to fall and reached close to the 1.1355 level. This decline was mainly due to the renewed strength of the US Dollar, which gained momentum ahead of important US economic data expected later in the North American session.
Investors are being cautious as they wait for key reports like the first-quarter GDP, the ADP Employment Change, and the March PCE Price Index. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved up slightly to around 99.35, showing growing demand for the dollar as markets prepare for these high-impact data releases.
EUR/USD Weighed by Firm USD and Cautious Fed Outlook Ahead of Key US Data
However, the pressure on the EUR/USD pair increased as investors sought the safe-haven US Dollar, expecting slower US economic growth and easing inflation. The US economy is expected to have grown just 0.4% in Q1, a sharp decline from the previous 2.4% growth.
Data on the labor market and inflation is also likely to show less economic momentum, which could affect future decisions by the Federal Reserve. Despite the weaker outlook, the dollar remains strong as markets wait for today’s data to confirm the slowdown.
Rising US-China Trade Tensions Keep Markets on Edge and Support the Greenback
Apart from the economic data, rising geopolitical tensions are also affecting market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized a tough stance from the US, stating that it is up to China to ease trade tensions. His comments came after China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US goods in response to the US's 145% tariffs.
Although China temporarily removed tariffs on some US imports, analysts believe this is more out of necessity than a genuine effort to reduce tensions. This ongoing trade conflict is keeping risk appetite low and supporting the strength of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Weakens on Eurozone Inflation Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the European front, the Euro also came under pressure due to disappointing inflation data across major Eurozone economies. Preliminary April CPI figures from six German states and France showed slowing price growth, while inflation in Italy and Spain remained stable.
Although French CPI slightly beat estimates at 0.8%, it was still below March’s 0.9%. Therefore, the overall picture of subdued inflation has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in its June policy meeting.
Despite the dismal inflation outlook, the Eurozone economy showed some resilience in Q1. Preliminary GDP data released on Wednesday beat expectations, with the region expanding by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter—double the growth seen in the previous quarter.
While this provided some temporary relief for the Euro, concerns around inflation, interest rates, and global trade continue to overshadow the broader economic narrative, keeping the EUR/USD pair under pressure in the near term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a tightening ascending structure, supported by a rising trendline from the April 23 low. The pair recently rebounded from $1.13618, just above the trendline and the proposed entry point at $1.13621, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
Price remains close to the 50-period SMA ($1.13836), which is currently acting as dynamic resistance. If this level is cleared, the next target is $1.14098, followed by stronger resistance near $1.14248.
Candlestick behavior reveals indecision, with recent spinning tops and small-bodied candles near the support zone.
However, there’s no strong reversal pattern yet—no bullish engulfing or three white soldiers—but the higher lows remain intact, keeping the bullish structure technically alive.
The RSI (14) is printing 46.88, slightly below neutral but curling upward, suggesting early bullish momentum. If RSI crosses above 50 and price clears the SMA, it would further confirm bullish intent.
A failure to hold the trendline near $1.13365 would invalidate this setup, potentially exposing the pair to a drop toward $1.13077.
For now, the setup favors a cautious long with tight risk control, watching the ascending trendline as a key inflection point. A breakout above $1.14098 may open up space for a run toward $1.14508.
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