Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $3,086 per ounce in early Monday trading in Asia, fueled by mounting geopolitical uncertainty and growing confidence in a dovish Federal Reserve. The move builds on last week’s momentum, with spot gold decisively breaking through $3,070 resistance, and now setting its sights on the next key target at $3,105.
The latest leg of the rally came in response to Friday’s PCE Price Index, which rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly ahead of the 0.3% forecast.
While the inflation reading was marginally hotter, analysts say it’s unlikely to shift the Fed’s current trajectory. Markets are now pricing in roughly 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut potentially arriving as early as July.
“Safe-haven demand tied to trade uncertainty and macro risks continues to support gold,” said Peter Grant of Zaner Metals, noting that softening global growth signals are reinforcing the metal’s upward bias.
Traders Brace for High-Impact U.S. Data
This week’s macro calendar is packed with key data releases that could shape the Fed’s rate path—and by extension, gold’s trajectory. Investors will be watching closely for signs of economic softening or labor market weakness, which could strengthen the case for rate cuts and deepen demand for safe-haven assets.
Key U.S. Events to Watch This Week:
Tuesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Est. 49.6)
JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday:
ADP Non-Farm Employment (Est. 118K)
Thursday:
Weekly Unemployment Claims
ISM Services PMI
Friday:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Est. 139K)
Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.1%)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Outlook: Bullish Bias Remains Intact
While inflation remains sticky, slowing economic momentum and geopolitical tensions are tipping investor sentiment toward risk aversion. With gold already breaking to new highs, a soft jobs report or disappointing manufacturing data this week could accelerate the rally toward $3,105 and beyond.
The Fed’s policy tone remains the linchpin. Should upcoming data support a July rate cut narrative, gold’s bullish run may still have room to extend—especially with real yields edging lower and central banks continuing to accumulate gold reserves.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to extend its bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD trading at $3,085.34 after breaking above the short-term pivot at $3,077.
The move confirms bullish continuation within a well-established ascending channel, as buyers maintain control despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
The recent breakout is supported by favorable momentum and strong trend structure, reinforcing the case for additional upside toward $3,105 and potentially $3,118.82.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently at $3,037.63, has provided consistent dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 66.95, suggesting momentum remains healthy without tipping into extreme overbought territory.
A potential trade setup emerges with a buy entry above $3,077, targeting $3,105 as the primary resistance, with a stop loss set at $3,065. This configuration offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.3.
As long as the price holds above $3,070, the bias remains firmly bullish. However, any drop below the $3,065 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $3,055 and possibly $3,037.
This technical structure continues to favor the bulls, supported by rising moving averages, solid channel support, and a well-behaved RSI.
Traders should monitor price action closely near the $3,105 resistance, as a break above this level could open the door to fresh highs toward $3,118.82.
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