EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extend its upward trend and remained bullish around above 1.0875 level.
However, the shared currency has gained momentum amid positive Eurozone data. Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the signs of an economic slowdown, was seen as another key factor that supported the EUR/USD pair.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index Jumps to -2.9 in March
On the data front, the latest Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March surged to -2.9, a sharp improvement from February's reading of -12.7.
This unexpected uptick in investor sentiment signals a recovery in confidence about the economic outlook for the region, particularly in Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
According to Sentix, Germany’s industrial sector saw an impressive boost in January, with industrial output rising by 2% month-on-month (MoM), beating expectations of a 1.5% increase.
Sentix described investor sentiment in Germany as “downright euphoric,” suggesting a growing belief that the country’s economy is on a positive trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current situation indicator also showed progress, increasing to -21.8 from -25.5 in February. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the region’s recovery, supported by Germany’s strong economic performance.
Therefore, the improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, especially driven by Germany's strong economic performance, boosts investor optimism, supporting EUR/USD gains as confidence in the Eurozone rises.
Weak US Data and Trump’s Uncertain Economic Agenda Weigh on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar faced downward pressure as the market digested disappointing economic data and increasing concerns over President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Data showing a 15-month low in US Consumer Confidence, a drop in ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February have raised doubts about the strength of the US economy.
These indicators suggest that the US may be headed for a slowdown, adding to worries over the effectiveness of Trump’s "America First" policies.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that his administration’s policies would result in short-term economic shocks, reinforcing fears of potential disruption to the US economy. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and tax policies have created uncertainty, leading investors to scale back expectations for US growth in the near term.
As a result, market participants are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its policy easing cycle, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June meeting rising to 82%, up from 54% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda and its effects on the broader economy.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB’s Caution on Interest Rates
Despite the positive data from the Eurozone, the Euro is facing some challenges in the short term. After strong gains last week, traders are taking profits, which is putting some pressure on the currency.
Additionally, there are concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future actions. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but they did not commit to further rate cuts or a broader expansion of monetary policy.
ECB officials, including Mario Centeno, have indicated that the Eurozone is moving towards "normalizing" its monetary policy, with inflation decreasing and getting closer to the ECB’s target. These factors are causing some caution around the Euro’s near-term performance.
On the other hand, Germany’s move to extend its borrowing limit and establish a EUR500 billion infrastructure fund for defense spending has forced traders to revise expectations for ECB rate cuts. As a result, the Euro’s bullish momentum has been capped, although sentiment remains generally positive.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index faced selling pressure on Friday, dropping to the 5,738 mark after hitting an intra-day low of 5,711. The decline was fueled by investor concerns over US President Donald Trump's shifting trade policies and anticipation of key economic data. Although US stock index futures attempted a modest rebound, market sentiment remained fragile as traders remained cautious.
S&P 500 Under Pressure Due to Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the trade front, Wall Street saw renewed volatility following President Trump's decision to delay the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2 as part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
In response, Canada also postponed its planned tariffs on $125 billion worth of US products. Despite these temporary adjustments, markets remained unsettled due to the unpredictability of global trade policies.
The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff strategies has led to concerns over long-term economic growth, with some analysts fearing that these policies could negatively impact corporate earnings. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has weighed on investor sentiment, limiting upside potential for the S&P 500.
US Employment Data and Federal Reserve Rate Outlook in Focus
Meanwhile, market participants are keenly awaiting the February employment report, which is expected to show an increase in nonfarm payrolls to 156,000 from January’s 143,000.
The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0%, while wage growth is anticipated to slow to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 last week, signaling labor market resilience despite broader economic concerns.
However, reports of rising unemployment claims among federal workers due to layoffs initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, added uncertainty to the labor market outlook. Traders are now focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments, which could provide further clarity on the central bank’s rate policy stance.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation Weighs on Market Sentiment
On the US front, concerns about trade policies and possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are affecting market sentiment. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the economy is strong but warned about rising consumer stress and inflation risks.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed out economic uncertainty and urged caution in making policy decisions.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s not in favor of a rate cut at the March meeting but noted that cuts could happen later this year if inflation continues to drop.
Markets show little chance of a rate cut in March, and traders are split on whether it will happen in May. However, investors are expecting a rate cut in June, with another one likely in September.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to reflect the addition of 160,000 jobs in February. Any surprises in employment data could shift expectations regarding Fed policy, influencing the S&P 500’s near-term direction.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 5738.53, maintaining a cautious stance as investors assess market conditions ahead of key economic data. The index remains below its pivot point at 5762.50, signaling a potential downside bias.
Immediate support is located at 5680.36, with further declines potentially targeting 5616.83 and 5558.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 5861.08, with a break above this level opening the door for a move toward 5938.02 and 6007.97.
However, the 50-day EMA at 5944.00 suggests that bulls may struggle to reclaim control unless broader market sentiment improves.
The technical outlook remains bearish as long as the index stays below 5762.50, reinforcing the risk of further downside.
A decisive break below 5680.36 could accelerate selling, pushing SPX toward deeper support zones.
Conversely, a move above 5762.50 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, with potential for an upside retracement.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, Gold (XAU/USD) extended its bullish trend and held steady above the $2,900 level. However, the precious metal's rally remained intact as the weakening US Dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provided strong support.
Fed’s Dovish Stance and Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on USD, Boosting Gold’s Appeal
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar lost momentum following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) official Christopher Waller. He stated that while a March rate cut is unlikely, the Fed is open to reducing rates two or three times this year.
He mentioned that a rate cut in March is unlikely but said the Fed could lower rates two or three times this year. Markets agree with this outlook, expecting the first cut around June. This softer stance put pressure on the USD, helping Gold hold onto its gains.
The Fed remains cautious about the timing of rate cuts, with officials monitoring inflation trends before making policy adjustments. Fed official Christopher Waller said that a strong job market and slowing inflation could support rate cuts in the coming months.
This has boosted demand for Gold since lower interest rates make it more attractive by reducing the cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bullion.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Concerns Lift Gold Demand
On the geopolitical front, the tensions between the US and China escalated after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi defended China’s handling of fentanyl exports and accused the US of using the issue to exert pressure. Hence, the rising geopolitical uncertainty bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
Moreover, Australia recorded its highest-ever Gold exports to the US in January, totaling A$4.6 billion ($2.9 billion), as traders rushed to deliver metal to New York warehouses amid concerns over potential tariffs.
Therefore, the rising US-China tensions and record Australian Gold exports to the US increased demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price by fueling investor concerns over economic instability and potential trade restrictions.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,912.07, maintaining a narrow range as investors assess key economic data. The metal remains above its pivot point at $2,905.47, signaling a potential bullish bias.
However, upside momentum faces resistance at $2,929.94, with additional hurdles at $2,942.57 and $2,954.43. A breakout above these levels could open the door for further gains, particularly if economic uncertainty persists.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $2,884.75, with deeper levels at $2,872.63 and $2,858.99. A breach below $2,905.47 could accelerate selling pressure, shifting sentiment toward a more bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $2,904.74 is providing dynamic support, reinforcing the case for buyers in the market. Gold’s ability to hold above this level is crucial for maintaining its upward momentum.
A strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could pressure gold lower, strengthening the U.S. dollar and diminishing gold’s appeal. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely boost expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting gold prices.
Traders should watch for a sustained move above $2,929.94 to confirm further upside potential, while failure to hold above $2,905.47 may lead to a test of lower support levels.
Related News
- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum, surging above the 1.0850 level and hitting the intra-day high of 1.0871level.
However, the shared currency gained traction as traders reassessed their expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) after Germany confirmed a €500 billion infrastructure fund and proposed changes to the "debt brake."
These reforms could lead to higher inflation, which may slow down the ECB’s plans to cut interest rates. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided commenting on these changes during her press conference, saying that increased spending on defense and infrastructure is still under review.
With inflation concerns rising, market expectations for ECB rate cuts have shifted. Traders now speculate that the ECB may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April after five consecutive reductions. Before the ECB’s latest meeting, investors had expected two more rate cuts by summer.
Lagarde maintained a cautious stance, saying future rate decisions would be based on economic data and decided on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. This uncertainty, combined with a weaker US Dollar, has helped EUR/USD maintain its bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakness and Market Sentiment
Another factor that has been supporting the EUR/USD pair is the US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against major currencies, has been falling for five straight days, reaching a four-month low of 103.60.
Meanwhile, the US economic outlook and Trump’s tariff policies have added pressure on the US Dollar. Investors worry that higher tariffs could hurt US importers and reduce consumer spending, weakening the economy.
On Thursday, Trump temporarily eased some tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) but confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US NFP report is expected to show an increase of 160K jobs in February, higher than the 143K recorded in January.
In the meantime, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise by 4.1% year-on-year.
However, the month-on-month wage growth rate is expected to slow to 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.
On the other hand, the next major event for the Euro is the German parliamentary vote on debt brake reforms, scheduled for March 18.
This could affect inflation and influence the ECB’s decisions. On the other hand, US job data will give more clues about the Fed’s next moves, which will impact EUR/USD trends. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its gains, holding steady around the 0.6345 level as the US dollar remained under pressure amid improved risk sentiment and weaker US economic data.
Market confidence received a boost after the White House announced a temporary exemption for automakers from newly imposed import tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Moreover, the administration is considering tariff exclusions for certain agricultural products. This development helped ease investor concerns, supporting risk-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar.
Australia’s Trade and Economic Data Support AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the Australian economy continues to show strength, with positive trade and economic data boosting the AUD.
Australia’s trade surplus rose to 5,620 million in January, exceeding the expected 5,500 million and improving from the previous 4,924 million.
The rise in exports, particularly non-monetary gold, combined with a decline in imports, supported the trade balance.
Moreover, building permits in Australia surged by 6.3% in January, marking the second consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth rate since July 2023. Therefore, the strong domestic data provided further support for the Australian Dollar, allowing it to maintain its gains against the Greenback.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure as economic concerns mounted. On the data front, the US ADP Employment Change for February reported only 77K new jobs, significantly below the forecast of 140K and the previous month’s 186K.
Investors are now awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a modest rebound to 160K jobs in February.
Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower at 50.3 versus the expected 50.5, further fueling concerns about economic momentum. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for March highlighted uncertainties stemming from Trump’s trade policies, signaling potential strain on economic activity.
Therefore, the weaker US economic data and Fed's Beige Book uncertainties pressured the USD, boosting AUD/USD. Investors anticipate a dovish Fed stance, supporting the Aussie as risk sentiment improves.
Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook Impact AUD/USD
Despite the strong domestic data, the Australian Dollar’s gains could be limited due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China is prepared to respond to any escalation in tariffs imposed by the US.
Given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner, heightened trade tensions could weigh on the Aussie Dollar.
On a positive note, China’s Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 in February from 51.0 in January, exceeding market expectations.
Additionally, Chinese authorities set a target of approximately 5% economic growth for 2025, with a 2% goal for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These factors could provide some support to the Australian Dollar, given its close economic ties with China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63392, showing resilience above its pivot point of $0.63386, as traders gauge market sentiment ahead of key U.S. and Australian economic data.
The pair has remained in a tight consolidation phase, but the short-term technical setup suggests a potential breakout if buying pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62483 provides solid dynamic support, reinforcing the pair’s near-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance stands at $0.63650, and a decisive break above this level could push AUD/USD toward $0.64051, where further bullish momentum may emerge.
A move past this resistance zone would set up a potential rally toward $0.64452, marking the next key level for traders to monitor.
On the downside, the immediate support level is at $0.63035, followed by $0.62681 and $0.62326. A breakdown below the pivot point could trigger selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines, particularly if global risk sentiment weakens or the U.S. dollar strengthens on positive data.
Macroeconomic factors remain critical in shaping AUD/USD’s trajectory. The Australian dollar has found support from stabilizing commodity prices and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.
However, any surprises in upcoming U.S. employment data or inflation readings could drive volatility in the pair.
For now, traders should watch for a sustained move above $0.63650 as confirmation of renewed bullish strength. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further consolidation, keeping the pair range-bound in the short term.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, gold (XAU/USD) lost its bullish momentum and declined to around $2,900, failing to hold near its all-time high of $2,956.
However, the major factor behind this drop was the delay in the implementation of US car tariffs, which improved investor sentiment and reduced safe-haven demand for gold.
Despite some easing in tariffs for Canada and Mexico, the reciprocal trade measures are still set to take effect in April, keeping market uncertainty alive.
This has led to continued safe-haven demand for gold, though the latest developments have capped further gains.
Apart from this, investors are keeping their eyes on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, where markets anticipate a 25-basis-point cut.
Meanwhile, European Union leaders are set to discuss a defense spending package and potential further aid to Ukraine, which could influence broader market sentiment.
Weaker US Data and Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing its traction amid slowing economic momentum. This can be witnessed by the weaker US economic data.
The ADP Employment Change report for February showed just 77K new jobs, significantly below the forecast of 140K and January’s 186K, raising concerns about a slowing labor market.
Moreover, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, slightly under the expected 50.5 and January’s 50.9, signaling weakening economic activity.
However, S&P Global’s final Manufacturing PMI for February exceeded expectations at 52.7, providing a slight relief. These developments have fueled expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 as the economy shows signs of softening.
Investors are now awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is projected to show a modest recovery in job growth to 160K in February, up from January’s 143K. Any disappointment in the data could further support Fed rate cut bets, potentially influencing gold prices.
Hence, the weaker US economic data and rising Fed rate cut expectations support gold prices by weakening the US dollar and lowering bond yields. Moving on, the disappointing NFP report could further boost gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,921.65, reflecting a cautious but steady bullish bias. The metal remains above its pivot point of $2,907.49, signaling that buyers are maintaining control. The 50-day EMA at $2,905.09 continues to act as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,939.51, a level that gold has struggled to break in recent sessions. If buyers push through this barrier, further gains toward $2,956.29 and $2,970.29 could be on the horizon.
A confirmed breakout above these resistance levels may accelerate momentum, targeting fresh highs as traders assess market sentiment.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,884.56, with additional safety nets at $2,863.79 and $2,844.79. A break below $2,907.49 would weaken the bullish outlook and shift momentum in favor of sellers, increasing the risk of a pullback toward these support levels.
From a broader perspective, gold remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and trade-related uncertainties.
Market participants are closely monitoring economic data releases, particularly labor market indicators, which could influence Fed policy expectations.A weaker U.S. dollar and softer job data could provide additional fuel for gold’s next leg higher.
For now, traders should watch for confirmation above $2,939.51 to validate continued upside momentum. Failing to hold above $2,907.49 could signal renewed selling pressure, exposing gold to a deeper correction.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair extended its sharp decline and remained under pressure around the 147.70 level during the European trading session.
The pair's bearish trend can be attributed to the strengthening Japanese Yen (JPY), which continues to gain traction against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The JPY remains near its multi-month high, supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue hiking interest rates.
Stronger Japanese Yen Driven by BoJ's Hawkish Outlook
The Japanese Yen has been strengthening amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy further.
BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank is prepared to adjust its policy in response to economic conditions.
This hawkish stance has fueled expectations of additional rate hikes, leading to a surge in Japanese bond yields.
Notably, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond has reached its highest level since June 2009. The narrowing yield gap between Japan and other economies has provided further support to the JPY, adding to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Weaker US Dollar Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Soft Economic Data
On the US front, the US dollar has been struggling amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as June.
On the data front, the latest economic data has reinforced these expectations, with the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report revealing that private-sector employment increased by just 77K in February, significantly below the 140K forecast.
In the meantime, US consumer confidence deteriorated to a 15-month low, further fueling speculation that the Fed will need to adopt a more accommodative policy stance.
Despite positive data indicating continued expansion in the US services sector, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its weekly downtrend, dropping to its lowest level since November 6.
The prolonged weakness of the USD has contributed to the sharp decline in the USD/JPY pair, with traders remaining cautious ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.
Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming US economic data releases, particularly the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. These reports will provide fresh insights into the US labor market and could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
If the data further supports the case for Fed rate cuts, the USD/JPY pair could experience additional downside pressure.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 148.852, edging lower as sellers gain control below the pivot point at 149.326. The pair remains under pressure as market sentiment tilts toward a risk-off environment, and traders assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates and Bank of Japan policy shifts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at 149.672 acts as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook below 149.30. Immediate resistance is set at 150.174, and a break above this level could lead to a test of 151.208 and potentially extend toward 152.128. However, the downward momentum suggests further downside potential if the pair remains below its pivot level.
On the support side, 148.189 serves as immediate protection against deeper declines. If this level breaks, the next targets lie at 147.435 and 146.690, areas where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.
For now, a sustained move below 149.30 confirms bearish control, with further losses expected toward 148.19. A rebound above this level could lead to short-term consolidation, but a stronger push beyond 150.17 is required to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well bid around the 1.2830 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2855.
The bullish momentum was driven by traders assessing the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, alongside a weaker US Dollar due to political and economic uncertainties.
BoE Governor's Testimony and Cautious Rate Cut Outlook Weigh on GBP/USD Volatility
On the GBP front, the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at 14:30 GMT is in focus.
Investors are keen to hear the BoE’s views on interest rates after the central bank cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February, signaling a slow and cautious approach to future cuts.
The BoE also warned that rising energy prices in Q3 could push inflation temporarily higher, delaying its return to the 2% target.
Traders anticipate two more BoE rate cuts this year but remain cautious as businesses may pass on increased employment costs, particularly after the government’s decision to raise employer National Insurance (NI) contributions in the Autumn Budget. These inflationary pressures could limit the BoE’s ability to implement aggressive rate cuts.
Therefore, the cautious stance from the BoE and concerns over inflationary pressures may limit GBP strength, keeping the GBP/USD pair volatile as traders assess future rate cut expectations.
US Dollar Weakens on Trump’s Tariff Policies and Fed Rate Cut Bets
On the US front, the US dollar losing its traction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping near 105.00, as concerns over former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies weighed on sentiment.
His plans to impose a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods have raised fears of increased costs for consumers, which could weaken household purchasing power and slow economic growth.
Meanwhile, the expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to increase as the recent weak US economic data has fueled speculation that the Fed may lower interest rates in June, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability of a cut rising to 80% from 70% a week ago.
Moving ahead, traders will keep their eyes on the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for more clues about the labor market. Apart from this, the Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will also be important for predicting future Fed policy.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.27896, holding onto slight gains as it tests key technical levels. The pivot point at $1.27752 is a crucial support zone, with buyers maintaining control above this threshold. The 50-day EMA at $1.26605 indicates a strong bullish foundation, reinforcing upward momentum.
If the pair breaks above $1.27740, bullish momentum could accelerate toward $1.28689, the first major resistance level. A breakout above this could extend gains to $1.29481, with a further bullish target at $1.30478, last seen during recent uptrends. Strong volume confirmation above $1.28701 would signal a continued bullish breakout.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.26792, with a break below this level likely shifting sentiment in favor of sellers. Further weakness could expose GBP/USD to $1.25663, and deeper losses could test $1.24667, where long-term buyers may step in.
The technical outlook favors a bullish stance, provided GBP/USD holds above the $1.27752 pivot. A confirmed break above $1.28689 could set the stage for further gains, while a drop below $1.26792 may trigger selling pressure.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) extended its winning streak and remained well bid around above 2,920 level.
However, the bullish rally was supported by increased safe-haven demand. The rise in gold prices comes amid growing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly due to the US tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.
Although, the gains were slightly capped by rising US Treasury yields, which put pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
Rising Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
It should be noted that the recent implementation of a 25% tariff by former US President Donald Trump on Mexican and Canadian imports, along with an increase in Chinese duties to 20%, has heightened trade tensions. This has led investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.
Moreover, the US's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine further fueled market uncertainty, boosting demand for the precious metal. The latest reports indicate that all US military equipment not yet delivered to Ukraine has been grounded, raising concerns about geopolitical stability.
Apart from this, Canada has confirmed retaliatory tariffs on US imports, while China’s Commerce Ministry announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on key US farm products. These developments increase the risk of a global trade war, dampening investor sentiment and reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Gold's Bullish Momentum Limited by Rising US Treasury Yields and Strong Dollar
Despite gold’s bullish momentum, the rising US Treasury yields have limited its upside trend. At the time of writing, the US 2-year bond yield stands at 3.98%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.25%.
On the data front, the recent ISM Manufacturing PMI data showed a decline to 50.3 from 50.9 in the previous month, while the Prices Paid Index surged to a nearly three-year high due to concerns over import duties.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong, trading around 105.70, which could also limit the gold’s bullish movement.
Moving ahead, investors are now shifting their focus to key US economic data releases scheduled for the North American session, particularly the ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change report.
Hence, the weaker-than-expected PMI could reinforce concerns about slowing economic growth, supporting gold prices further.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,915.74, struggling to maintain bullish momentum as it hovers near key support levels. The pivot point at $2,907.49 remains a critical threshold for determining the metal’s short-term trajectory.
The 50-day EMA at $2,906.78 suggests a near-term consolidation phase, with traders watching closely for a breakout or breakdown.
On the upside, a decisive push above $2,907 could strengthen bullish sentiment, paving the way for a move toward $2,956.85, the first major resistance level. If momentum persists, gold may extend its rally toward $2,978.40, with a further upside target at $2,996.71.
Conversely, failure to hold above $2,907 could expose the market to downside risks. Immediate support sits at $2,883.16, and a sustained drop below this level may accelerate selling pressure toward $2,859.91, with deeper losses potentially testing the $2,832.63 level.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday, reaching near 1.0720, the highest level seen this year.
However, the shared currency strengthened as investors moved away from the US Dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a three-month low of 105.15.
EUR/USD Strengthens Amid Weak US Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar came under pressure as market participants reassessed their expectations regarding US economic growth.
Investors are increasingly worried that former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies could slow down economic expansion rather than fuel inflation and growth, as previously expected.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Citi analysts forecasted a 0.1% decline in Q1 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and projected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its rate-cut cycle in May, after pausing in December. This, in turn, has pressured the US dollar, making the Euro more attractive.
German Debt Reforms and ECB Policy Outlook Support Euro
On the flip side, the Euro found support from expectations of fiscal expansion in Germany. Frederich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, along with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has agreed on a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and a relaxation of borrowing limits.
These changes could boost economic growth in the Eurozone and push inflation higher, helping the Euro stay strong.
However, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting remains a key event for EUR/USD traders. Notably, the ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) for the fifth consecutive time.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to clarify the bank’s monetary policy path. Investors will closely watch her remarks on the impact of Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s fiscal policies on the Eurozone economy.
Trade Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact EUR/USD
On the geopolitical front, the US has already imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, with additional reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2.
This poses a risk to the Euro, as Germany, a key economy in the Eurozone, is a major car exporter to the US. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on foreign automobiles from 2.5% to 25% could hurt German automakers, impacting exports and economic growth. If trade tensions escalate, market uncertainty may weigh on the Euro, affecting the EUR/USD pair.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services data for February, set to be released in the North American session.
These figures could shape market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, ultimately influencing EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.06248, struggling to hold above key support levels as the U.S. dollar retains strength. The pivot point at $1.06351 is a crucial threshold, with the pair teetering just below it. The 50-day EMA at $1.04784 signals a bearish bias, suggesting further downside potential if sellers remain in control.
A break below $1.06344 could accelerate selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.05614 acting as the next key level. If the bearish momentum continues, EUR/USD could decline further toward $1.04962, with an extended downside target at $1.04448, marking a multi-week low.
On the upside, resistance remains firm at $1.06990, with a break above this level required for any meaningful recovery. If the pair manages to push higher, the next upside hurdles are $1.07453 and $1.08038, where sellers may re-emerge. However, given the current bearish sentiment, a sustained move above $1.06837 is required to shift momentum.
The technical landscape remains bearish, as long as EUR/USD trades below the pivot point at $1.06351. A confirmed break below $1.05614 could trigger further declines, while a push above $1.06990 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025