GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prices experienced a mild retreat after reaching a fresh all-time high earlier this week, trading with a slight negative bias around the $3,220 level during the first half of the European session.
This pullback can be attributed to profit-taking, as markets adopt a more risk-on sentiment and global equity markets show strength.
Despite the dip, the broader market outlook suggests that strong downside remains unlikely, particularly as global uncertainties continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven asset.
Gold Price Supported by Escalating US-China Trade Tensions
However, the recent retreat in gold prices comes amid heightened risk sentiment, but any notable declines are expected to be limited. This is largely due to escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to continue to act as a tailwind for gold.
Last Friday, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125%, responding to President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. These developments have sparked further fears of a slowdown in global economic growth, which could lift gold prices back to their all-time highs.
Investors are keenly watching these trade dynamics, as the continued friction between the world’s two largest economies presents a strong case for holding gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Weak US Dollar Keep Gold Supported
Investor sentiment has also been influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle.
Meanwhile, the recent US economic data, including weaker-than-expected inflation figures, have fueled speculation that the Fed may lower borrowing costs at least three times this year.
The sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the continued weakness of the US Dollar, which is hovering near its lowest level since April 2022, have provided further support to gold.
This outlook for easing monetary policy comes amid concerns over a slowdown in the US economy due to tariff-driven disruptions.
Gold, being a non-yielding asset, benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, and these factors are likely to keep downward pressure on gold prices at bay.
On the data front, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March showed a 0.1% monthly decline and a decrease in the yearly inflation rate to 2.4%, further fueling expectations that the Fed may pivot towards more dovish monetary policies.
Inflation Concerns and Safe-Haven Demand Provide a Strong Floor for Gold
Another factor supporting gold's rise is the expectation that tariffs will cause higher inflation in the coming months. As a result, gold is seen as a safe bet against rising prices, which helps maintain strong demand for the metal.
With the market expecting the Fed to cut rates by 90 basis points by the end of 2025, gold is likely to keep appreciating in the near future.
This week, investors are paying close attention to statements from key Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, as these comments could shed light on future rate cuts.
Additionally, the US Retail Sales data, set for release later this week, could drive demand for the US Dollar and influence gold's price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is extending its bullish momentum, currently hovering near the $3,232 level after decisively breaking past the $3,206 pivot. The uptrend remains firmly intact, supported by strong price action and a 50 SMA rising below current levels at $3,096.
The market is now testing resistance at $3,255.39, a key Fib extension level, with upside potential toward $3,298.43 if buyers maintain control.
However, RSI at 70.82 signals overbought conditions, suggesting the rally could stall or consolidate before pushing higher. If the price fails to clear $3,255, we could see a retest of $3,206 or deeper toward $3,167, which now serves as a key downside risk level.
Gold remains bullish above the $3,206 breakout point. A sustained close above this level keeps the upside bias toward $3,283 and $3,298, with caution warranted as RSI stretches into overbought territory.
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- EURUSD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained it upward trend and surged to near 1.1425 level. However, the euro showed impressive strength as the US Dollar (USD) continued its decline amid increasing fears of stagflation in the United States, where inflation is rising, economic growth is slowing, and unemployment is cooling down.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Stagflation Concerns and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants anticipate stagflation in the US, particularly after the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, its lowest since June 2022.
The decline reflects deepening concerns about a potential recession as US households worry about escalating trade tensions with China.
On Friday, China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US goods to 125%, compounding fears of a trade war that could hinder investment and economic growth.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's 12-month forward inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, up from 5% in March, signaling rising concerns over persistent inflation.
These negative economic signals are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may struggle to bring inflation under control, contributing to the weakening of the USD.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Euro Strength Amid US-China Tariff Tensions
The euro has continued to strengthen as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) this Thursday. If this happens, it would be the seventh consecutive 25 bps cut since June.
Many traders are confident that the ECB will ease its monetary policy further, as they believe the US-driven trade war will not cause inflation in the Eurozone.
Moreover, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to shift some of China’s exports to the Eurozone. This benefits Eurozone importers, who will choose Chinese products over domestically made goods due to their cost advantage. This shift is seen as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs on global inflation, providing further support for the euro.
ECB officials, including Gediminas Šimkus, have suggested that cutting interest rates could help boost economic growth in the face of trade tensions. Šimkus also emphasized the need for a "less restrictive policy" to address challenges caused by the tariff dispute.
Furthermore, EU finance ministers have agreed to present a unified stance in trade talks with the US, which is expected to increase the euro’s appeal.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak, climbing near the 1.3190 mark, its highest level in over two months.
The pair aims to reclaim the six-month high of 1.3207 as the US dollar continues to lose ground amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty in the United States. The ongoing weakness in the US Dollar has been a key driver of the pair’s bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Consumer Sentiment Drop
However, the reason for its bullish trend could be attributed to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the situation escalated when China raised tariffs on US goods to 125%.
This back-and-forth has shaken investor confidence in the US Dollar, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop to 99.00, its lowest point in three years.
Moreover, Trump’s push to bring manufacturing back to the US has raised concerns among American business owners, who worry about sudden policy changes.
These uncertainties have had an impact on consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling sharply to 50.8 in April, far below expectations.
Dollar Weakens Amid Fed's Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Uncertainty
On the other side, the Dollar's troubles have deepened as market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its June meeting. Although the Fed is being cautious, New York Fed President John Williams admitted that predicting the economy is tough given the current political climate.
This uncertainty has made traders expect a more dovish stance from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar even further, helping push GBP/USD higher.
UK Economic Data and Trade Tensions Support the Pound
On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strength, supported by positive expectations ahead of important UK economic data.
Labor market and CPI figures due this week are expected to show slight softness in wage and inflation growth, which could reinforce the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut rates in May. Despite this, the Pound remains strong as the UK government takes a proactive approach to handle global trade disruptions.
Former BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean has suggested aggressive rate cuts, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the need to boost the UK’s trade presence.
Reeves is confident in securing new trade deals with both the EU and the US, aiming to protect the UK economy from external challenges.
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair is likely to stay supported as the Fed and BoE follow different policy paths, and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to pressure the US Dollar.
If UK data meets or exceeds expectations and global trade tensions remain, the pair could break above the 1.3200 level in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound has resumed its climb against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $1.31659 after holding the uptrend support. The pair broke above the critical $1.31025 pivot level, turning it into new support and validating a bullish continuation setup.
RSI is above 73, suggesting buying momentum remains elevated, although price is now flirting with overbought conditions.
Price action is aligned with a rising trendline, and as long as that structure holds, the bullish case toward $1.32078 remains valid. If this resistance breaks convincingly, GBP/USD could extend to $1.32697, and potentially toward the psychological barrier at $1.33236. A pullback below $1.31025, however, would expose the market to deeper corrections toward $1.30387 and $1.29847.
The technical setup favors a bullish bias as long as price stays above $1.31025. Traders may consider initiating long positions on a sustained break, aiming for $1.32078 while managing risk tightly below $1.30387.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum and surged to the intra-day high of 1.1473, touching its highest level in three years. However, the sharp rally was driven by growing pressure on the US Dollar amid escalating trade tensions and renewed support for the Euro following the European Union’s decision to pause counter-tariffs against the United States.
EUR/USD Rally Fueled by Intensifying US-China Trade War and EU’s 90-Day Tariff Pause
However, the major catalyst behind the surge in EUR/USD was the market’s reaction to China’s decision to hike tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, a move that deepened fears of a prolonged US-China trade war.
This escalation has heightened the risk of a US recession, prompting investors to price in a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, the Euro found additional support after the European Union announced a 90-day pause on countermeasures against US tariffs.
This move followed President Trump’s earlier decision to suspend planned tariffs on multiple countries, signaling a potential thaw in transatlantic trade tensions and boosting confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
EUR/USD Supported by Fed Rate Cut Bets and Dovish Outlook
Traders are increasingly betting on a shift in US monetary policy, with expectations rising for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The trade war risks, coupled with softening US economic indicators, have pushed markets to anticipate a more accommodative Fed stance in the coming months.
Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Their comments will be closely watched for clues on future rate policy, especially as investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
A stronger-than-expected reading could provide some support to the US Dollar and limit further EUR/USD gains.
Eyes on US PPI, Consumer Sentiment, and Fed Commentary
Looking ahead, traders are now focused on upcoming US data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Both reports are scheduled for release later today and will be closely watched for clues on inflation and consumer confidence.
Moreover, the comments from Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, could offer fresh insight into the central bank's policy path.
Hence, the stronger-than-expected set of data or a hawkish tone from Fed speakers may limit EUR/USD’s upside in the near term, but for now, the pair remains firmly in bullish territory.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues its bullish breakout, pushing toward the $1.13830 region after clearing the key $1.12804 pivot. The pair is riding a strong upside channel, supported by a steep RSI climb currently at 76.22—well into overbought territory. Still, momentum remains in the bulls’ favor following yesterday’s soft U.S. inflation data, which weighed on the dollar and bolstered euro demand.
Price is now pressing against immediate resistance near $1.13830, with the next target at $1.14111. A sustained break above this level could expose the $1.14483 zone. On the downside, $1.12804 now acts as a critical support level, and below that, $1.12021 is the line in the sand for short-term bulls.
Technically, the pair is well supported above the 50 SMA, currently at $1.10382, and has room to run if risk sentiment stays upbeat. However, with RSI flashing overbought, traders should be cautious of short-term pullbacks or profit-taking near the highs. Momentum remains strong but needs confirmation through a daily close above $1.14111.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 Index extended its losses and fell sharply to the 5,268 level during early US trading hours on Friday, as fears over an escalating US-China trade war rattled investor sentiment. The sell-off intensified after both Washington and Beijing introduced fresh tariff hikes, stoking fears of a broader economic slowdown.
S&P 500 Hit by US Tariff Surge and China’s Retaliation
The decline in the S&P 500 came shortly after the White House confirmed a cumulative 145% tariff on Chinese imports, with the new round including a 125% hike on top of the existing 20% duty. In retaliation, China’s Finance Ministry announced it would raise tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%, effective Saturday, April 12.
This tit-for-tat action between the two largest economies has triggered a wave of risk aversion, sending equities lower while safe-haven assets like Gold rallied. The US Dollar also weakened significantly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a three-year low below 99.50, as markets feared the worsening trade war would weigh on economic growth.
S&P 500 Under Pressure from Fed Cut Bets and Weak US Inflation
Adding to the bearish pressure on equities, soft US inflation data has further raised expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of 2.6%, while core CPI rose just 2.8%, below the expected 3.0%. The monthly CPI even posted a surprise 0.1% drop.
As a result, market participants are now pricing in up to 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first move potentially arriving as early as June. The dovish outlook has added to concerns over slowing economic momentum and pressured the S&P 500 even further.
Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting signaled that Fed policymakers are facing a difficult balancing act between tackling inflation and supporting growth — a dynamic that adds uncertainty to the market outlook.
Global Trade Risks and Weak China Data Amplify S&P 500 Declines
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- EURUSD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Meanwhile, global growth worries were compounded by disappointing inflation data from China. The country’s CPI dropped 0.1% in March, while PPI contracted by 2.5% annually — both worse than expected. These figures reflect cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy, further weighing on risk assets like US equities.
Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for countries other than China in a bid to ease trade tensions, the gesture did little to soothe investor concerns, as the escalating standoff with Beijing remains the dominant risk factor.
Looking ahead, market focus now shifts to the upcoming US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. However, unless trade tensions ease, the S&P 500 may continue to face downside pressure in the sessions ahead.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize after its recent selloff, now consolidating around 5,268. A modest bounce from the 5,200 zone has brought the index back into a key technical confluence near the descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at 5,433.
This area is critical, as it marks a cluster of resistance from both a structural and moving average standpoint.
The index remains range-bound between 5,208 and 5,345, with short-term buyers showing interest above 5,211 support. The RSI at 49.76 reflects a neutral momentum tone, suggesting potential for either a breakout or more consolidation.
A sustained move above 5,345 would expose the next key resistance at 5,400, while a failure to clear this level could see the index revisiting 5,211 and possibly 5,108.
Price structure suggests a higher low is forming near 5,200, with the broader uptrend still technically intact as long as the ascending trendline holds. The 50 SMA, currently at 5,433, will act as a key barrier for bulls to reclaim in order to shift sentiment more decisively upward.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged close to record highs, nearing the $3,230 mark in European trading on Friday. This surge is driven by escalating tensions in the US-China trade war and growing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which are fueling a broader risk-off sentiment and bolstering demand for safe-haven assets.
US-China Trade War Intensifies, Boosting Gold
The recent sharp escalation in the US-China trade war has significantly impacted global market sentiment. China has retaliated by imposing a 125% tariff on US goods, an increase from the previous 84%, while the US sharply raised tariffs on Chinese imports, introducing a new 125% levy on top of an existing 20%, making the total tariff burden a striking 145%.
This aggressive stance has increased fears of broader economic repercussions, further driving investors toward the safety of gold.
As a result, the gold has emerged as a primary hedge against this uncertainty, with traders flocking to the precious metal as a store of value. In the meantime, the US dollar has also faced strong sell-offs across the board as traders digest the trade war fallout and its potential impact on economic growth.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation Fuels Gold's Rally
Apart from this, the recent US inflation data has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates soon.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a yearly increase of just 2.4%, which was lower than the expected 2.6% and also less than February’s 2.8%. Similarly, the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, also below forecasts.
These weaker inflation numbers have made markets believe that the Fed could reduce interest rates by as much as one full percentage point before the year ends. Lower interest rates usually mean cheaper borrowing and less support for the US dollar, making it easier for investors to turn to other assets.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the dollar to other major currencies, has dropped to around 100.20. This decline in the dollar has helped push gold prices higher, as gold becomes more attractive when the dollar weakens.
At the same time, concerns about both the US and global economic outlooks are leading investors to expect a more dovish approach from the Fed. If the Fed signals rate cuts, non-yielding assets like gold — which don’t offer interest but hold value — become more appealing, encouraging a shift in investment strategies.
China’s Economic Struggles Add to the Mix
China's economic data also paints a bleak picture, with March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.1%, worse than the expected 0.1% increase.
The country’s Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted by 2.5%, more than anticipated. This slowdown in China’s economy adds to the broader global uncertainty, pushing traders to seek the safety of gold.
Outlook for Gold
Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on upcoming US economic data, including the March Producer Price Index (PPI) and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. These reports will provide further insight into inflationary pressures and may influence the Fed's decision-making process.
Despite occasional corrections, gold is well-positioned to maintain its bullish trajectory, supported by growing safe-haven demand, expectations of dovish Fed policies, and global economic uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to climb, extending its rally to a session high of $3,213.16 before cooling slightly to $3,208.71. Price action is pushing against a significant resistance zone at $3,219, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level.
While momentum remains bullish, traders should be cautious of a short-term pullback as the RSI at 74.14 signals overbought conditions and a potential bearish divergence.
The metal is trading well above its 50-period EMA at $3,065.10, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, a rejection near the $3,219 resistance could trigger a corrective move. The key pivot support sits at $3,160, a level that previously acted as both resistance and now flipped to potential support.
Immediate resistance is marked at $3,219, with higher targets at $3,252 and $3,338 should bullish momentum continue. On the downside, a break below $3,160 could open the door toward $3,124 and further to $3,095.
Given the strong advance, traders may look for a reversal pattern near $3,219 for a potential short entry. A break below the $3,160 pivot would confirm near-term bearish pressure and shift sentiment toward consolidation.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair rose to around the 0.6187 level on Thursday, following positive news about renewed trade talks between Australia and the European Union (EU).
The EU announced plans to revisit the stalled negotiations, with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic proposing a new timeline to restart discussions with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell.
Although the previous round of talks collapsed two years ago due to disagreements over agricultural access, these new developments have raised hopes for a resolution, boosting sentiment towards the Australian Dollar.
Weak Australian Data and RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD
Despite the positive news from the EU, the Australian Dollar faces pressure from weak domestic economic data. Consumer confidence took a hit, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling by 6% in April after a 4% rise in March.
Business sentiment also weakened, as the NAB Business Confidence Index dropped to -3 in March, marking its lowest point since November.
This disappointing economic data has bolstered expectations for more dovish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Markets are now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first likely to come in May, followed by further reductions in July and August. This dovish outlook is keeping the Australian Dollar under pressure.
Global Trade Tensions Limit AUD Upside Despite EU Progress
On the global front, the escalating trade tensions continue to limit the AUD's upside potential. US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% has further intensified the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
In retaliation, China increased tariffs on all US imports to 84% and blacklisted six major US companies. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding global trade, particularly between two of Australia’s largest trade partners, is weighing on investor sentiment.
China's latest economic data has also raised concerns about a slowdown. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-over-year in March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%.
These signs of weakening demand in China, Australia's largest trading partner, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy Outlook in Focus
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, hovering around 102.60, as traders await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed concerns about the dual risks of rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
Despite these concerns, policymakers emphasized that future decisions would be based on data. Currently, the market is pricing in only a 40% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In a positive move for global markets, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most US trade partners, easing fears of further trade tensions. This step is seen as helping stabilize the market amid ongoing uncertainties.
Therefore, the US dollar's weakness and President Trump's tariff pause could boost risk sentiment, likely supporting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek higher-yielding assets, driving demand for the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6184 after a strong recovery from last week's low of 0.5930. The pair has climbed back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6159 and is now testing resistance near 0.6213.
A clean break above this level could accelerate gains toward 0.6237, aligning with the descending trendline from the recent high of 0.6388.
However, momentum appears stretched. The RSI stands at 67, just shy of overbought territory, hinting at possible consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6160, followed by 0.6107 and the 50-period moving average at 0.6046. Until bulls confirm a close above 0.6213, upside moves may be limited.
AUD/USD has reclaimed key levels, but a decisive close above 0.6213 is needed to fuel further gains. Watch for RSI cooling or trendline breakout.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair showed signs of weakness, edging lower as the market awaited key inflation data from the US.
The pair remained under pressure, with market participants opting to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data later in the week.
These reports are expected to offer fresh clues on the future path of US interest rates, which could heavily influence the US Dollar's trajectory and provide fresh momentum to the USD/JPY pair.
Divergence in Central Bank Policies Weighs on USD/JPY
However, the near-term bias for the USD/JPY pair seems to favor the Japanese Yen (JPY) bulls, fueled by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates further.
This outlook is supported by stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from Japan, which revealed a 0.4% rise in March, bringing the annual increase to 4.2%.
These higher-than-expected figures could lead to a potential increase in consumer prices, which in turn would strengthen the case for further policy tightening by the BoJ.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing growing expectations for multiple interest rate cuts, as the US economy shows signs of inflationary pressure and slowing growth, exacerbated by trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
This divergence in central bank policies—hawkish expectations from the BoJ and dovish projections for the Fed—creates a bearish environment for the USD, which in turn supports the JPY.
US Inflation Data Could Provide New Direction for USD/JPY
Market sentiment surrounding the USD/JPY pair was also influenced by the ongoing developments in global trade. President Trump's agreement to meet with Japanese officials to discuss trade relations and the subsequent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested that Japan might become a priority in tariff negotiations, added an additional layer of support for the JPY.
Therefore, the potential for a US-Japan trade deal remains on the table, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the Japanese Yen.
In addition, the market was buoyed by a temporary rebound in the US Dollar after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariff increases for most countries, reducing some of the global trade uncertainties. This move helped lift equity markets, with the S&P 500 registering its biggest daily gain since 2008.
However, this optimism was tempered by the Fed's cautious stance, as revealed in the March FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes showed that officials were concerned about higher inflation and slower growth, urging caution in rate-cut decisions.
Traders are now expecting the Fed to hold off on further rate cuts until at least June, with only 75 basis points of reductions priced in by the end of the year. This cautious outlook has left USD bulls hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the US inflation reports, further contributing to the JPY's strength.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading near 146.74 after slipping below the 147.00 threshold, with resistance at 148.08 capping recent gains. Despite an earlier push higher, the pair has retreated toward the 146.64 pivot zone, which now acts as a key inflection point.
The 50 EMA at 146.43 provides nearby support, and a sustained move above 148.08 would be needed to signal bullish continuation toward 148.98 and potentially 150.53.
On the downside, 146.43 is the level to watch. A break below exposes the pair to further losses toward 145.86 and 144.97. The RSI reads 52.72, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum, though upside conviction remains soft.
Price is currently rangebound, with traders awaiting cues from upcoming U.S. inflation data and broader risk sentiment shifts. Unless USD/JPY breaks through 148.08, buyers may remain sidelined.
Momentum is tentative. A move above 148.08 may revive bullish sentiment, but holding above 146.64 is critical for near-term upside.
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GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) delivered a jaw-dropping rally in Thursday trading, surging nearly 5.00% since Tuesday and hovering around the $3,130 mark. The bullish momentum comes amid escalating US-China trade tensions, renewed safe-haven demand, and shifting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
Gold Gains as US-China Tariff Clash Sparks Safe-Haven Demand
As we mentioned, the yellow metal found strong support after US President Donald Trump announced a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, immediately following Beijing’s move to impose an 84% tariff on all US goods starting Thursday.
Meanwhile, Trump temporarily paused higher tariffs on 56 other countries and the European Union, setting a baseline rate of 10%. These developments have stoked fears of a prolonged economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies, reviving investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Yuan Weakness and Currency Tensions Add to Gold's Appeal
Further supporting gold’s rally, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) devalued the Chinese Yuan (CNY) for the sixth consecutive session, despite warnings from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Markets interpret this as a strategic move by Beijing, echoing past tactics from earlier trade war episodes. The weakening Yuan added to global market volatility, pushing investors toward gold’s relative stability.
Fed Rate Cut Bets and Central Bank Buying Support Gold
On the monetary policy front, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that expectations for a rate cut in May have sharply declined to 19.5%, down from 44.6% earlier this week. However, markets still see a 75.3% chance of easing in June.
Despite recent hawkish Fed commentary, broader investor sentiment continues to lean toward future monetary easing, providing additional support to the non-yielding precious metal.
Gold is also gaining long-term bullish traction as central banks increase bullion holdings amid growing global uncertainties. Historical patterns—such as the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis rally—suggest sustained upside potential as financial assets fail to deliver safe-haven value.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just below $3,120 after a sharp two-day rebound from the $3,002 support zone. Price action has now reclaimed the 50-period SMA at $3,077, signaling a short-term bullish shift.
However, the rally is approaching a key barrier at $3,137—a horizontal resistance level that rejected prices twice last week. If bulls manage to close above this level, the next upside targets lie at $3,168 and $3,199.
On the downside, a pullback toward $3,108 could offer a buying opportunity. Immediate support rests at $3,077, followed by a stronger floor near $3,037. The RSI at 63.8 reflects improving momentum, though nearing overbought territory. Until price breaks above $3,137, we may see some sideways consolidation.
Gold is showing strength above the $3,077 level, but bulls need a decisive break above $3,137 to sustain momentum. Watch for a dip to $3,108 for potential entry.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum and remained well-supported above the 1.2800 mark, reaching an intraday high of 1.2864. The rise was largely driven by easing trade tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon. This positive sentiment helped the pair stay strong as market participants continued to react to the possibility of a more dovish Fed stance.
GBP/USD Rally Supported by Renewed Trade Optimism and US Negotiation Signals
However, the bullish rally in the GBP/USD pair was boosted by renewed optimism after US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate with global trade partners. This signaled a potential easing of ongoing trade tensions. His comments came as US Customs and Border Protection announced plans to start collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners.
Despite maintaining his broader tariff plans, President Trump indicated a willingness to engage in discussions, sparking hopes for a more conciliatory approach to global trade relations.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70 countries, including Japan, had reached out to Washington for talks, further fueling optimism about a potential resolution. This reduction in trade uncertainties has allowed the GBP to gain support, as UK firms stand to benefit from a decrease in US tariffs.
GBP/USD Boosted by US Rate Cut Expectations and Fed's Dovish Outlook
Apart from this, the ongoing expectations about US monetary policy are also contributing to the strengthening of the British Pound. Markets are now predicting a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve as early as May, with a larger cut expected by July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting the Fed to lower rates by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year. This outlook puts pressure on the US Dollar, which in turn helps push the GBP/USD pair higher.
At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that future monetary policy decisions will be based on economic data, fueling speculation that the Fed might adopt a more dovish approach. However, the concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy are growing, and traders believe the Fed may need to change its policy to help support economic growth.
This growing uncertainty around the Fed’s actions is putting additional pressure on the US Dollar, further supporting the rise of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Strength Driven by UK’s Economic Resilience and Shifting Rate Cut Expectations
At the UK front, the country’s relatively low exposure to tariffs, estimated at just 10%, puts it in a better position to handle the impact of global trade tensions compared to other nations. The UK government has also pointed out that the direct effect of tariffs on GDP will be minimal, less than 0.1%. In addition, rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.61%, reflect increasing investor confidence in the UK economy, which further strengthens the British Pound.
Meanwhile, market expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) are also growing. After recent tariff developments, the market now fully expects a rate cut in May, up from 50% previously, and predicts further cuts through 2025. This shift in expectations for both the US and UK central banks is setting up the GBP/USD pair for continued strength in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound is attempting a short-term recovery against the U.S. dollar, but gains remain capped below the $1.2835 resistance. After plunging from the $1.3150 high, GBP/USD has been testing broken support levels as resistance, with the pair currently hovering near the trendline retest zone.
Despite the bounce from $1.2711 support, price action remains fragile as the 50-SMA near $1.2923 reinforces downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.5, showing a modest uptick in momentum, though still beneath the bullish threshold of 50.
This suggests a recovery is underway but lacks strong conviction. A sustained break below $1.2835 could trigger another leg lower toward $1.2707, with a deeper slide targeting $1.2638 and $1.2559.
From a risk-reward perspective, sellers may view this as a favorable zone to reenter, given the clear rejection at trendline resistance. On the upside, only a clean break above $1.2906 would negate the bearish structure and shift momentum toward $1.2983.
Traders watching macro catalysts, including U.S. CPI data this week, should remain cautious. Until then, short setups remain technically favorable below $1.2835, targeting a retest of recent lows near $1.2707, with a stop above $1.2906 to manage risk.
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