USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bearish below $1.43084, with downside targets at $1.42764 and $1.42409.
- Resistance at $1.43388 must be broken for bulls to regain control and push toward $1.43793.
- Oil price strength and Fed policy shifts will influence USD/CAD’s next major move.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.43080
Take Profit – 1.42573
Stop Loss – 1.43374
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$507/ -$294
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair remained sluggish around the 0.6371 level as the US dollar regained strength.
However, the greenback recovered from recent losses amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US reaffirmed its stance on striking Yemen’s Houthis until they halt attacks on Red Sea shipping, further unsettling markets.
Moreover, US President Joe Biden warned Iran of consequences if it continued supporting the Houthi group in Yemen. The situation has fueled risk aversion, leading to a stronger US Dollar and pressuring the Aussie.
Despite this, the AUD/USD saw some support due to the China’s latest economic stimulus measures. Moreover, the US dollar could lose traction due to rising trade tensions and growing economic concerns in the US. The market remains cautious as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and economic data.
AUD Faces Pressure from RBA Caution and US Trade Policies
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious about rate cuts. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the bank is taking a careful approach to easing rates.
The February policy statement also showed this cautious stance, which is different from market expectations of big rate cuts. Hunter added that US policy decisions, especially on inflation, could affect Australia.
Further pressure on the Aussie came as President Biden reaffirmed plans to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, specifically targeting steel and aluminum imports.
Biden ruled out exemptions, signaling tough trade measures that could impact Australian exports. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not impose retaliatory tariffs, aiming to avoid inflationary effects on domestic consumers.
Therefore, the cautious stance of the RBA and trade tensions with the US could weigh on the AUD, leading to potential weakness in the AUD/USD pair, as market sentiment remains uncertain.
Chinese Economic Support Provides Some Relief to the AUD
On the other side, the Australian Dollar found some support from China’s latest economic stimulus measures. China recently introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, aiming to enhance market sentiment.
The plan includes wage increases, measures to encourage household spending, and efforts to stabilize stock and real estate markets.
China’s retail sales data showed a 4.0% year-over-year increase in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% rise.
Meanwhile, industrial production rose by 5.9% YoY, surpassing the 5.3% forecast but slightly lower than the previous reading of 6.2%. These indicators suggest steady growth in China, which could help cushion the AUD/USD pair from further downside.
Weak US Data and Consumer Confidence Pressure the US Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50, struggling due to weak US economic data and uncertainty surrounding Biden’s tariff threats. US Retail Sales figures for February increased by just 0.2%, falling short of the expected 0.7% gain.
January’s data was also revised lower to -1.2% from -0.9%, signaling weaker consumer spending and raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown.
Moreover, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.9 in March, marking its lowest level since November 2022.
The decline in consumer confidence further pressured the US Dollar. However, the Fed is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with markets awaiting the outcome of its two-day meeting.
Therefore, weak US data and declining consumer confidence weighed on the USD, limiting its strength. This could support the AUD/USD pair, but RBA caution and trade tensions may cap significant gains.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.63698, showing slight downward movement as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum.
The price remains below the pivot point at $0.63844, indicating that sellers still have control in the short term. With the 50-day EMA at $0.63137, the broader trend suggests a cautious outlook, with potential for further downside if key support levels fail to hold.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.64000, with additional hurdles at $0.64121 and $0.64260. A breakout above these levels could signal renewed buying interest, pushing the pair toward a short-term recovery. However, without a fundamental catalyst, upside movement appears limited.
On the downside, immediate support at $0.63573 remains critical. A break below this level could lead to a test of $0.63402, followed by $0.63266, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
A break below $0.6384 could accelerate downside momentum, making $0.63540 a viable target for short sellers. Conversely, a move above $0.64000 may shift sentiment toward a temporary bullish correction.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prolonged its bullish rally and hit an all-time high of $3,028. The reason behind this record surge is the ongoing geopolitical tensions, fears of a slowdown in the US economy, and strong expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Investors are increasingly moving towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainty.
Despite a slight recovery in the US Dollar (USD), gold remains well-supported because lower interest rates typically make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
In the meantime, the ongoing concerns over global economic instability continue to drive demand for the metal.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to push gold prices higher. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have intensified military strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza after ceasefire talks failed, raising fears of more violence.
At the same time, tensions in the Red Sea have escalated, with the US launching airstrikes against Houthi forces in response to their attack on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.
Adding to the uncertainty, former US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of serious consequences, increasing global instability. These rising geopolitical risks have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, as investors look for protection against market turmoil.
US Economic Slowdown and Weak Data Boost Gold Prices
On the US front, the increasing concerns about a slowing US economy have further boosted gold prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently admitted the risk of a possible recession in 2024, making investors more cautious.
Meanwhile, the latest US Retail Sales report showed only a 0.2% increase in February, much lower than the expected 0.7% gain.
This weaker-than-expected data suggests that consumer confidence is declining, raising fears of economic slowdown.
As a result, speculation has grown that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates to support economic growth.
Market participants are increasingly betting on multiple Fed rate cuts this year. Fed funds futures indicate a potential 25 basis-point rate cut in June, followed by additional cuts in July and October.
Gold Awaits Key FOMC Decision
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, with investors awaiting further clues on the Fed’s policy stance.
Meanwhile, economic data releases, including US Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Canadian inflation figures, will also be closely monitored for potential market-moving insights.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,013.33, maintaining a steady uptrend after a slight 0.01% gain in early trading. The metal is consolidating above its pivot point at $3,007.95, reinforcing a bullish bias as long as this level holds. The 50-day EMA at $2,971.31 continues to act as a strong support zone, preventing deeper pullbacks.
On the upside, immediate resistance at $3,019.58 remains a key hurdle for buyers. A break above this level could trigger further gains, with the next resistance at $3,028.31, followed by $3,036.90. If bullish momentum strengthens, a push toward the $3,050 zone is possible in the near term.
Conversely, support at $2,996.48 serves as the first safety net for gold. A drop below this level may expose $2,986.84, with deeper support resting at $2,976.53. A failure to hold these levels could shift sentiment toward a bearish correction.
Gold's price action suggests that traders are awaiting stronger catalysts, such as economic data or central bank policy signals, to drive momentum. For now, the upward trend remains intact, and a break above $3,019 could fuel further buying interest. However, a drop below $2,996 may invite selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD extended its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0910 during European trading hours on Monday, as investors awaits for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday. The currency pair traded in a tight range as market participants sought clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Impact of Fed's Policy and Economic Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
However, investors are more focused on the Fed’s "dot plot," which gives clues about future rate changes. In the last meeting, Fed officials predicted three rate cuts this year, so traders will be watching closely to see if that changes.
Another key focus will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on economic growth, jobs, and inflation. If he hints at any shift in policy, it could impact the dollar and financial markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is rising due to concerns over potential tariff policies under former US President Donald Trump.
Adding to the worries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested that the government may need to adjust its spending to avoid financial risks. This has raised fears about possible economic disruptions in the coming months.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may strengthen if the Fed signals delayed rate cuts or economic concerns rise. However, uncertainty over US policies and spending risks could limit gains, keeping the pair volatile.
Euro Strengthens Amid German Fiscal Expansion and Geopolitical Developments
Across the ocean, the shared currency remained firm as German leaders agreed to establish a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and ease borrowing restrictions through changes in the ‘debt brake’ rule.
This move, expected to be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, is seen as a significant step to boost economic growth.
However, the Reuters poll conducted from March 10-14 showed that economists raised their Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%, reflecting optimism over Germany’s fiscal expansion.
Apart from this, positive developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks have further supported the Euro. Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire, following Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day truce after negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD Faces Risks from US-EU Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook
Despite EUR/USD’s recovery, the escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) pose a risk to the Euro’s gains.
On Thursday, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed tariffs on US goods in response to a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that a full-scale trade war would negatively impact global economic growth, stating, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its gains on Monday, climbing to an intra-day high of 1.2971 as the US dollar lost momentum.
The dollar’s weakness was driven by market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged, reinforcing cautious sentiment among traders.
With both the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) set to announce their monetary policy decisions this week, investors are closely watching for further guidance on interest rates and economic outlooks.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed’s Cautious Stance and Rising Inflation Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to gain traction as it remained under pressure despite the CME FedWatch tool indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep borrowing costs steady within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
This decision marks the second consecutive policy meeting where officials chose a "wait and see" approach due to ongoing economic uncertainties under US President Donald Trump’s leadership.
Market participants expect Trump’s policies to drive inflation higher while weighing on near-term economic growth. On the data front, the latest data from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey indicated an increase in five-year inflation expectations to 3.9%, up from February’s 3.5%. However, consumer sentiment dropped sharply to 57.9 in March, compared to forecasts of 63.1 and the previous reading of 64.7.
Therefore, the US dollar weakens as economic uncertainty and inflation concerns persist despite steady Fed rates. This supports GBP/USD, pushing it higher as traders favor the pound amid dollar softness and shifting market sentiment.
GBP Traders Await BoE Decision Amid Economic Uncertainty and Weak Data
On the other hand, the British pound is trading cautiously ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday.
The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while maintaining a "gradual and cautious" approach to future rate cuts.
Investors will pay close attention to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference following the decision for insights into the economic outlook.
In the meantime, the concerns about the UK economy have intensified following weak economic data releases.
The UK’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a contraction, while Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures for January saw a sharp decline.
In its February meeting, the BoE cut its GDP growth forecast to 0.75% for the year, adding to concerns about the economy’s trajectory.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.29363, slightly lower by 0.02%, as it struggles to hold above the $1.29434 pivot point. The pair remains under pressure, hovering just below the 50-day EMA at $1.29411, indicating a potential bearish continuation if resistance levels fail to hold.
A breakdown below $1.29434 could accelerate selling momentum, exposing immediate support at $1.28932, with further downside potential toward $1.28611 and $1.28202.
On the upside, a recovery above $1.29830 could shift sentiment, with buyers targeting $1.30150 and $1.30457. However, the prevailing market sentiment favors a weaker pound amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
The pair remains influenced by Federal Reserve rate expectations and Bank of England (BoE) policy outlook. With traders anticipating a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut by June, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the U.S. dollar remains relatively firm.
Meanwhile, UK inflation data due later this week could provide further directional cues for GBP/USD. A weaker-than-expected inflation print may reinforce expectations of a BoE rate cut, weighing further on the pound.
Traders should closely monitor price action around the $1.29434 pivot level. A sustained move below this mark could trigger further declines, while a rebound above $1.29830 may shift momentum toward the upside.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week on a positive note but remains under pressure below the key $3,000 level, oscillating in a tight range after touching an all-time high of $3,004.94 on Friday.
Despite the near-term bullish bias, the precious metal is struggling to gain momentum amid global trade war fears and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, the uncertainty surrounding escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continues to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing any major downside moves.
Trade War Concerns and Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing its strength as traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year.
This is happening because the US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, and inflation is becoming softer, which is affecting economic growth. As a result, markets believe the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and October.
The sentiment in the market is shifting from a "Trump put" to a "Fed put," meaning investors are now more focused on the Federal Reserve's actions rather than government policies. This shift comes as recession risks grow due to the US administration's aggressive trade policies.
Moreover, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years. This decline further supports the idea that the Fed might take a more accommodative approach by lowering interest rates.
Since lower interest rates make the US dollar weaker, this situation is making gold more attractive to investors. Gold, being a non-yielding asset, tends to perform better when interest rates fall, as holding cash or bonds becomes less profitable.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investors Toward Gold as Safe-Haven Asset
On the geopolitical front, rising tensions are making gold even more attractive to investors. The Houthi leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has warned that his group may target U.S. ships in the Red Sea in response to recent U.S. airstrikes. In reaction, the U.S. defense secretary has confirmed that military action against the Houthis will continue.
At the same time, an Israeli drone strike in Gaza over the weekend led to multiple casualties, including journalists. These ongoing conflicts are creating uncertainty in global markets, pushing investors toward safer assets like gold.
Gold's Gains Limited as China's Stimulus Boosts Risk Sentiment
Despite bullish factors, gold’s upside remains capped by improving risk sentiment, supported by China’s latest economic stimulus measures. China’s State Council introduced a special action plan to boost domestic consumption and income growth.
Moreover, Shenzhen eased its housing provident fund policies to support the struggling property sector. These developments lifted investor confidence, limiting further gains in safe-haven assets like gold ahead of the key FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Gold Traders Await Key U.S. Data and Fed Decision for Market Direction
Moving ahead, traders will keep their eyes on Monday’s U.S. economic data, including Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, to get fresh insights into the economy. However, the main focus will be on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC decision), as it will play a key role in shaping the direction of the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the coming days.
Meanwhile, analysts at UBS have raised their gold price target to $3,200, showing confidence in gold’s long-term strength. However, if there is a short-term correction, gold may find support around $2,850.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $2,985.56, showing modest gains of 0.03%, as investors weigh market catalysts.
The metal remains within a tight trading range, with key resistance at $3,005.25 and immediate support at $2,966.81.
The 50-day EMA at $2,951.89 is reinforcing a bullish structure, suggesting buyers remain in control, but momentum is slowing ahead of critical economic events.
A breakout above $3,005.25 could push gold toward the next resistance levels at $3,019.99 and $3,032.43, potentially triggering another bullish leg higher.
Conversely, a failure to hold above the $2,982.42 pivot could lead to a decline toward $2,966.81, with further downside potential at $2,954.61 and $2,939.24 if selling pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators reflect a bullish bias, with gold holding above its 50-day EMA ($2,951.89), signaling underlying strength.
However, price action remains in consolidation mode, awaiting fresh triggers from upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions and economic data.
The weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical risks continue to support gold, but short-term profit-taking could cause temporary pullbacks.
For now, traders are watching the $2,982.42 pivot level as the key inflection point. A sustained break higher would reinforce bullish momentum, while a move below could accelerate selling pressure.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The global market sentiment has been flashing red as witnessed by the continued decline in the S&P 500 (SPX), which hit an intra-day low of 5,504.
However, the ongoing concerns over US trade policies and the strengthening US dollar have put pressure on market sentiment.
Investors are worried that former President Donald Trump’s tough trade stance could shake up global markets, making businesses and traders uncertain about the future.
Moreover, expectations are rising that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might increase interest rates multiple times this year.
This has given the US dollar a boost, making it stronger, but at the same time, it has put more pressure on the stock market. As a result, investors are staying cautious, watching closely how these factors will impact the economy and their investments.
Stronger US Dollar Weighs on S&P 500 Amid Cooling Inflation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strong traction in the wake of stronger-than-expected jobless claims and softer Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
This combination of economic indicators has fueled optimism about the US economy, boosting demand for the greenback.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has gained momentum.
At the time of writing, DXY is trading around 104.00 as investors shift their attention to the upcoming Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data.
Meanwhile, the previously released labor market data showed that Initial Jobless Claims came in at 220,000 for the week ending March 7, lower than the expected 225,000. Additionally, continuing claims dropped to 1.87 million, below the forecasted 1.90 million, indicating resilience in the US job market.
Whereas, inflationary pressures eased, with the US PPI rising 3.2% year-over-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.4% annually, slowing from 3.8% in January. On a monthly basis, the headline PPI remained unchanged, while core PPI fell by 0.1%.
Therefore, the S&P 500 faced downward pressure as a stronger US dollar and resilient job data fueled concerns about prolonged higher interest rates, while easing inflation provided limited relief to equity markets.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Exacerbate Market Jitters
Apart from this, President Trump’s latest trade threats intensified fears of global economic instability. Trump recently announced a potential 200% tariff on all European wines and champagne via his social media account, raising concerns over heightened trade tensions.
This move has amplified fears of retaliatory measures from the European Union, potentially disrupting global trade flows and corporate earnings.
Meanwhile, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed his support for a GOP stopgap funding bill to keep the government open, but political uncertainty over fiscal policy continues to worry investors.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the administration’s plan to balance the budget within three years under Trump.
While this shows a focus on fiscal discipline, investors fear that aggressive spending cuts could slow economic growth.
As a result, the S&P 500 remains under pressure, with markets reacting cautiously to ongoing political and economic uncertainties.
Looking ahead, investor focus remains on the upcoming Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data, which could provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 5521.53, holding steady after a strong run, but facing resistance as traders assess macroeconomic conditions.
The index remains above the pivot point at 5510.29, suggesting underlying strength, yet the momentum appears to be losing steam near key resistance at 5599.36. A breakout above this level could fuel further gains toward 5685.55 and 5780.12, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend.
However, downside risks persist, particularly if SPX fails to hold above 5510.29. Immediate support sits at 5406.38, and a break below this level could expose the index to a deeper pullback toward 5313.07 and 5200.68.
The 50-day EMA at 5764.78 remains a critical long-term marker, currently indicating a stretched market that may be due for consolidation or correction.
Investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of key economic events, including the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes and macroeconomic data releases.
Traders are closely monitoring inflation signals and the Fed’s policy stance, which could dictate near-term direction. A hawkish tone from the central bank may trigger profit-taking, while dovish comments could reignite bullish momentum.
For now, the index remains in a consolidation phase, with a decisive move above 5599.36 needed to confirm a continuation of the rally. Conversely, a break below 5406.38 may signal a shift in sentiment, prompting a correction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and climbed to around 1.0912. The Euro (EUR) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Investors are closely watching key economic data releases, including Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which could further influence the pair’s movement.
EUR/USD Rises Despite Trade Tensions and Recession Concerns
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a 200% tariff on European wine, cognac, and other alcohol in response to the EU’s planned tariffs on American whiskey and other goods starting in April.
The EU’s move came after Trump imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports. Despite these trade tensions, the Euro (EUR) is holding strong, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that higher US tariffs could push Germany, Europe’s largest economy, into another recession.
He said on Thursday that if the tariffs go into effect, Germany might face a recession this year. Despite these concerns, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Speculations Cap Dollar Gains
On the other hand, the downside for EUR/USD is limited due to growing concerns about the US economy. Analysts at Barclays have updated their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut forecast, now expecting two cuts in June and September instead of just one.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a rate cut by June, signaling market confidence in upcoming easing, which supports the Euro's strength and keeps EUR/USD rising.
Hence, the weaker US economic data has also contributed to speculation that the Fed may move to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. A slowdown in economic growth would put further pressure on the Greenback, potentially limiting further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in the US-EU trade dispute, as any further escalation could intensify selling pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, upcoming economic data from both regions, including inflation reports and consumer sentiment figures, will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in sideways consolidation after hitting a fresh all-time high of around $3,001 on Friday.
Despite some pullback, the precious metal remains on track for strong weekly gains as investors assess the impact of escalating US trade policies and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The ongoing uncertainty supports gold's status as a safe-haven asset, keeping its bullish outlook intact.
US Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Gold
On the geopolitical front, the escalating tariff war initiated by Trump continues to fuel market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The latest move includes a proposed 200% duty on European wine and cognac imports unless the European Union removes surcharges on US whiskey.
This follows the recent 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, raising fears of further escalation. These aggressive trade policies have heightened recession concerns, leading investors to increase their bets on Fed rate cuts.
Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to implement three 25 basis point rate cuts in June, July, and October to mitigate a potential economic downturn.
This outlook has been reinforced by softer US inflation data, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% YoY in February, down from 3% previously.
Gold's Gains Capped by US Dollar Recovery Despite Bullish Factors
Despite strong support from trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations, gold’s gains remain limited by a recovering US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its rebound for the third straight day, recovering from its lowest level since mid-October.
However, the recent stability in global equity markets, spurred by positive US-Canada trade negotiations and reduced fears of a US government shutdown, has also tempered gold's bullish momentum. Although, the overall market sentiment still favors gold’s upside potential.
Market participants now turn their attention to the upcoming Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Index for further direction.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting next week will be crucial in shaping the near-term outlook for gold.
Hence, the dovish signals from the Fed could further support gold’s bullish trend, while stronger-than-expected economic data could weigh on prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,985.31, slipping 0.01% as it hovers below the key pivot level of $2,993.84. The metal remains in a tight range as traders weigh Federal Reserve rate cut expectations against a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Gold’s inability to sustain momentum above $2,993 highlights investor caution, with resistance levels at $3,005.25 and $3,015.30 posing near-term hurdles.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,979.51, with further selling pressure potentially driving gold toward $2,963.65 and $2,956.39.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,928.44 continues to provide dynamic support, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend. However, failure to hold above this level could expose gold to further declines.
Despite short-term weakness, gold’s broader trend remains bullish, driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing.
Softer U.S. inflation data has fueled speculation of three rate cuts in 2024, with traders eyeing the upcoming FOMC meeting for further guidance. A dovish stance from policymakers could propel gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark.
For now, a daily close above $2,993.84 is required to confirm bullish momentum, while a break below $2,979.51 may signal deeper consolidation.
Traders should watch for a decisive move in either direction to determine the next leg of gold’s price action.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and extended its losses for the third consecutive session around $0.6285 on Thursday.
However, the pair found some support as the US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and growing concerns over a potential recession.
Despite this, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction following a sharp drop in Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and rising global trade tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
AUD/USD Pressured by Trade Disputes and Weak Inflation Expectations
The Australian Dollar came under fresh selling pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that Australia would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. This decision heightened trade concerns and weighed on market sentiment.
At the same time, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations dropped sharply to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, the lowest level since April 2024. This unexpected decline raised concerns about inflation in Australia, making it harder for the AUD to recover.
Adding to the pressure, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not respond with its own tariffs against the US.He explained that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and push inflation even higher.
This decision left the Australian Dollar more exposed to trade uncertainties, adding to its weakness in the market.
US Dollar Remains Subdued Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar struggled as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50. Traders analyzed the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that inflation slowed in February.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner than expected. Monthly headline inflation dropped to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January, while core inflation also eased to 0.2%, missing the expected 0.3%. The weaker inflation numbers reduced demand for the US Dollar, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair.
However, market sentiment turned negative after the European Union (EU) responded to US tariffs with its own measures. The US had imposed a 25% levy on European steel and aluminum, and in retaliation, the EU announced tariffs on $26 billion worth of US goods.
This move added to global trade uncertainty. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China remained unresolved, with reports indicating that negotiations between the two countries had stalled, further weighing on market confidence.
RBA Policy Outlook and Market Focus on Key US Data
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its policy outlook, especially after recent economic data reduced expectations for more rate cuts.
Australia’s economy showed unexpected strength, with growth surpassing forecasts and picking up for the first time in over a year.
However, the RBA remains cautious, as global trade uncertainties and weakening consumer confidence could still influence future policy decisions.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims. These reports could offer new clues about the US economy and impact the direction of the US Dollar.
If the data comes in stronger or weaker than expected, it may create market volatility and influence the AUD/USD pair in the short term.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is struggling to gain momentum, with AUD/USD trading at $0.6296, down marginally as traders assess shifting market sentiment.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at $0.6327, signaling potential downside risks in the near term. Despite attempts at recovery, the 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping a lid on bullish attempts.
If AUD/USD remains below $0.6327, sellers could push the pair toward immediate support at $0.6268, with a break lower exposing $0.6233 and $0.6198 as next downside targets.
However, should buyers regain control, resistance stands at $0.6355, followed by $0.6383 and $0.6407, which will need to be cleared for a shift in momentum.
Macroeconomic factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk sentiment in global markets, will play a crucial role in the Aussie dollar’s direction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on monetary policy also remains in focus, with any hawkish signals potentially providing support to the currency.
For now, AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers targeting key support levels. A sustained move below $0.6268 could accelerate losses, while a break above resistance at $0.6355 would indicate a potential reversal.
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