USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair dropped back toward the 1.3857 level, reversing its short-lived recovery and continuing its downward trend.
This decline happened as the US Dollar (USD) lost strength due to growing market worries about the US economic outlook and unclear signals about the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
Investors are now focusing on Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is expected later today and could give the pair a new direction.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Earlier Hawkish Fed Commentary
Despite earlier support from hawkish comments by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who emphasized that reaching 2% inflation will take time, the US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure. Market participants are becoming more cautious due to concerns over stagflation and mixed opinions about the Fed’s next move.
Deutsche Bank recently updated its forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two more rate cuts in early 2026. This change in expectations has reduced demand for the US Dollar, pushing the USD/CAD pair lower again.
Canadian Dollar Gains Ground on Improved Risk Sentiment and Trade Relief
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened as market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump decided to exempt certain tech products, such as smartphones and laptops, from tariffs.
This decision eased concerns about the US-China trade tensions and increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD.
Moreover, the Loonie received support from falling US bond yields and growing expectations ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release today, which could influence the Bank of Canada’s future policy decisions.
USD/CAD Volatility Ahead as Investors Await Canadian CPI and Central Bank Signals
Looking forward, the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain volatile as inflation data and central bank policies continue to influence market sentiment in both the US and Canada.
Investors are adjusting their positions ahead of Canada’s Core CPI release, as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could make near-term rate cuts from the Bank of Canada less likely, which would support the CAD.
At the same time, Canada’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 3.12%, down from a recent peak of 3.27%, indicating caution from investors amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
Therefore, the expectation of stronger Canadian inflation and a lower bond yield suggests reduced likelihood of Bank of Canada rate cuts, supporting the CAD and potentially causing further downside pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Tuesday, the Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its firm tone around the $3,225 level, hovering just below the record high set the previous day.
However, the yellow metal continues to draw support from intensifying US-China trade tensions and increasing market speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further in 2025.
Although, the temporary tariff relief offered by the US has kept broader market sentiment steady, preventing aggressive bullish momentum in Gold.
Gold Supported by Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand
However, the bullish undertone in Gold remains intact as concerns deepen over the rapidly worsening US-China trade war. After President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese products to a record 145%, China responded by raising its own tariffs on US goods up to 125%.
These back-and-forth actions between the two largest economies have made investors nervous about a global economic slowdown. As a result, more people are turning to safe-haven assets like Gold, which has helped keep its price strong.
Despite the temporary exemptions on some electronic products and suggested he might ease tariffs on the auto industry, the overall situation is still uncertain.
He also warned that new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could be coming soon. Because of this ongoing tension between the US and China, investors remain cautious, and this continues to support Gold prices near their all-time highs.
Gold Gains from Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Weak US Dollar Sentiment
Gold also finds tailwinds from growing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders are now pricing in at least three rate cuts in 2025 as fears of a US recession rise.
The US Dollar remains on the back foot as investors bet that softer monetary policy will be required to cushion the economic blow from trade disruptions.
Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who warned that the tariff shock may force the Fed to act, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who noted inflation pressures remain due to tariffs, have reinforced dovish sentiment.
Market focus is now turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday for clearer policy guidance, which could further shape Gold’s next move.
Traders are watching Tuesday's Empire State Manufacturing Index and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to get a sense of short-term direction. The overall trend is still leaning upward, as concerns and expectations of rate cuts keep Gold in demand, especially with the weaker US dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are exhibiting strong bullish momentum after decisively breaking above the $3,168 Fibonacci pivot level, retracing fully from the April 4 dip near $2,956.
The recent breakout above the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $3,168 has been sustained, with prices consolidating in a tight range just below the $3,255 resistance — the 1.414 Fib extension level. This signals a potential continuation toward the 1.618 extension at $3,298, provided the bullish structure remains intact.
Technically, gold remains supported by the upward sloping 50-period SMA, currently at $3,167. This moving average has acted as a dynamic support since the April rebound began, reflecting the persistent demand for the metal amid geopolitical and inflationary concerns.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 61, indicating that while bullish momentum is present, the market is not yet in overbought territory, offering room for further upside.
Immediate support is now observed at $3,206 — aligning with recent consolidation lows — followed by stronger buying interest expected near the $3,168 and $3,123 retracement zones. As long as gold holds above the $3,167 stop-loss threshold, the bullish thesis remains valid.
A breakout above $3,255 could trigger momentum toward the $3,283 and $3,298 resistances, with potential for a further extension to $3,338 should bullish sentiment intensify. However, failure to hold above $3,206 would expose gold to a pullback toward the $3,167-$3,123 support cluster.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6361 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6378. This continued strength was driven by a mix of factors, including positive global trade sentiment and a weakening US Dollar. The boost came after US President Donald Trump exempted certain technology products from new tariffs, which lifted global risk sentiment and supported the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Boosted by Positive Trade Developments and China’s Economic Growth
Moreover, President Trump’s decision to exempt key technology products like smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and solar panels from tariffs sent a positive signal to global markets.
These products, mainly produced in China, are important for Australia’s trade, as China is its largest trading partner and a major buyer of its commodities.
This development supported the AUD, as markets saw it as a step toward easing trade tensions between the US and China, which is seen as positive for global trade stability.
In addition to this, China’s strong trade performance, with exports rising 13.5% year-over-year in March, boosted optimism.
Despite global uncertainties, China’s trade surplus exceeded expectations, improving the global growth outlook and further supporting the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness Amid Economic Concerns and Stagflation Risks
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure, especially after the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest level since 2022. The DXY hovered around 99.90 as investors reacted to growing signs of stagflation risks in the US economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments added to concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target, dampening market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. This uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy further weakened the USD.
In addition, US economic data presented a mixed picture. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight easing in inflation, while jobless claims ticked up to 223,000.
On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8, signaling deteriorating consumer confidence, which further added to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD.
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cautious Outlook and Market Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a cautious approach on future rate decisions, as shown in the minutes from its March 31–April 1 meeting.
The RBA highlighted global uncertainties, including trade tensions, and noted both risks to Australia’s economy and inflation. Although the RBA kept interest rates unchanged in April, markets are now expecting a 25-basis point rate cut in May, with further cuts likely later in the year.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to about 4.33%, indicating lower inflation expectations. The RBA’s cautious tone, along with easing core inflation, fueled speculation that the central bank might adopt a more supportive policy in the near future.
Despite the RBA's cautious stance, the AUD has been rising. This could be due to positive global trade sentiment, particularly the easing of US-China tensions, and strong Chinese trade data, which boost Australia's trade prospects and support the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.
However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.
Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.
A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.
Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak, climbing near the 1.3190 mark, its highest level in over two months.
The pair aims to reclaim the six-month high of 1.3207 as the US dollar continues to lose ground amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty in the United States. The ongoing weakness in the US Dollar has been a key driver of the pair’s bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Consumer Sentiment Drop
However, the reason for its bullish trend could be attributed to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the situation escalated when China raised tariffs on US goods to 125%.
This back-and-forth has shaken investor confidence in the US Dollar, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop to 99.00, its lowest point in three years.
Moreover, Trump’s push to bring manufacturing back to the US has raised concerns among American business owners, who worry about sudden policy changes.
These uncertainties have had an impact on consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling sharply to 50.8 in April, far below expectations.
Dollar Weakens Amid Fed's Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Uncertainty
On the other side, the Dollar's troubles have deepened as market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its June meeting. Although the Fed is being cautious, New York Fed President John Williams admitted that predicting the economy is tough given the current political climate.
This uncertainty has made traders expect a more dovish stance from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar even further, helping push GBP/USD higher.
UK Economic Data and Trade Tensions Support the Pound
On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strength, supported by positive expectations ahead of important UK economic data.
Labor market and CPI figures due this week are expected to show slight softness in wage and inflation growth, which could reinforce the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut rates in May. Despite this, the Pound remains strong as the UK government takes a proactive approach to handle global trade disruptions.
Former BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean has suggested aggressive rate cuts, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the need to boost the UK’s trade presence.
Reeves is confident in securing new trade deals with both the EU and the US, aiming to protect the UK economy from external challenges.
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair is likely to stay supported as the Fed and BoE follow different policy paths, and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to pressure the US Dollar.
If UK data meets or exceeds expectations and global trade tensions remain, the pair could break above the 1.3200 level in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound has resumed its climb against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $1.31659 after holding the uptrend support. The pair broke above the critical $1.31025 pivot level, turning it into new support and validating a bullish continuation setup.
RSI is above 73, suggesting buying momentum remains elevated, although price is now flirting with overbought conditions.
Price action is aligned with a rising trendline, and as long as that structure holds, the bullish case toward $1.32078 remains valid. If this resistance breaks convincingly, GBP/USD could extend to $1.32697, and potentially toward the psychological barrier at $1.33236. A pullback below $1.31025, however, would expose the market to deeper corrections toward $1.30387 and $1.29847.
The technical setup favors a bullish bias as long as price stays above $1.31025. Traders may consider initiating long positions on a sustained break, aiming for $1.32078 while managing risk tightly below $1.30387.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prices experienced a mild retreat after reaching a fresh all-time high earlier this week, trading with a slight negative bias around the $3,220 level during the first half of the European session.
This pullback can be attributed to profit-taking, as markets adopt a more risk-on sentiment and global equity markets show strength.
Despite the dip, the broader market outlook suggests that strong downside remains unlikely, particularly as global uncertainties continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven asset.
Gold Price Supported by Escalating US-China Trade Tensions
However, the recent retreat in gold prices comes amid heightened risk sentiment, but any notable declines are expected to be limited. This is largely due to escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to continue to act as a tailwind for gold.
Last Friday, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125%, responding to President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. These developments have sparked further fears of a slowdown in global economic growth, which could lift gold prices back to their all-time highs.
Investors are keenly watching these trade dynamics, as the continued friction between the world’s two largest economies presents a strong case for holding gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Weak US Dollar Keep Gold Supported
Investor sentiment has also been influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle.
Meanwhile, the recent US economic data, including weaker-than-expected inflation figures, have fueled speculation that the Fed may lower borrowing costs at least three times this year.
The sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the continued weakness of the US Dollar, which is hovering near its lowest level since April 2022, have provided further support to gold.
This outlook for easing monetary policy comes amid concerns over a slowdown in the US economy due to tariff-driven disruptions.
Gold, being a non-yielding asset, benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, and these factors are likely to keep downward pressure on gold prices at bay.
On the data front, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March showed a 0.1% monthly decline and a decrease in the yearly inflation rate to 2.4%, further fueling expectations that the Fed may pivot towards more dovish monetary policies.
Inflation Concerns and Safe-Haven Demand Provide a Strong Floor for Gold
Another factor supporting gold's rise is the expectation that tariffs will cause higher inflation in the coming months. As a result, gold is seen as a safe bet against rising prices, which helps maintain strong demand for the metal.
With the market expecting the Fed to cut rates by 90 basis points by the end of 2025, gold is likely to keep appreciating in the near future.
This week, investors are paying close attention to statements from key Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, as these comments could shed light on future rate cuts.
Additionally, the US Retail Sales data, set for release later this week, could drive demand for the US Dollar and influence gold's price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is extending its bullish momentum, currently hovering near the $3,232 level after decisively breaking past the $3,206 pivot. The uptrend remains firmly intact, supported by strong price action and a 50 SMA rising below current levels at $3,096.
The market is now testing resistance at $3,255.39, a key Fib extension level, with upside potential toward $3,298.43 if buyers maintain control.
However, RSI at 70.82 signals overbought conditions, suggesting the rally could stall or consolidate before pushing higher. If the price fails to clear $3,255, we could see a retest of $3,206 or deeper toward $3,167, which now serves as a key downside risk level.
Gold remains bullish above the $3,206 breakout point. A sustained close above this level keeps the upside bias toward $3,283 and $3,298, with caution warranted as RSI stretches into overbought territory.
Related News
- EURUSD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained it upward trend and surged to near 1.1425 level. However, the euro showed impressive strength as the US Dollar (USD) continued its decline amid increasing fears of stagflation in the United States, where inflation is rising, economic growth is slowing, and unemployment is cooling down.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Stagflation Concerns and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants anticipate stagflation in the US, particularly after the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, its lowest since June 2022.
The decline reflects deepening concerns about a potential recession as US households worry about escalating trade tensions with China.
On Friday, China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US goods to 125%, compounding fears of a trade war that could hinder investment and economic growth.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's 12-month forward inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, up from 5% in March, signaling rising concerns over persistent inflation.
These negative economic signals are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may struggle to bring inflation under control, contributing to the weakening of the USD.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Euro Strength Amid US-China Tariff Tensions
The euro has continued to strengthen as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) this Thursday. If this happens, it would be the seventh consecutive 25 bps cut since June.
Many traders are confident that the ECB will ease its monetary policy further, as they believe the US-driven trade war will not cause inflation in the Eurozone.
Moreover, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to shift some of China’s exports to the Eurozone. This benefits Eurozone importers, who will choose Chinese products over domestically made goods due to their cost advantage. This shift is seen as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs on global inflation, providing further support for the euro.
ECB officials, including Gediminas Šimkus, have suggested that cutting interest rates could help boost economic growth in the face of trade tensions. Šimkus also emphasized the need for a "less restrictive policy" to address challenges caused by the tariff dispute.
Furthermore, EU finance ministers have agreed to present a unified stance in trade talks with the US, which is expected to increase the euro’s appeal.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum and surged to the intra-day high of 1.1473, touching its highest level in three years. However, the sharp rally was driven by growing pressure on the US Dollar amid escalating trade tensions and renewed support for the Euro following the European Union’s decision to pause counter-tariffs against the United States.
EUR/USD Rally Fueled by Intensifying US-China Trade War and EU’s 90-Day Tariff Pause
However, the major catalyst behind the surge in EUR/USD was the market’s reaction to China’s decision to hike tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, a move that deepened fears of a prolonged US-China trade war.
This escalation has heightened the risk of a US recession, prompting investors to price in a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, the Euro found additional support after the European Union announced a 90-day pause on countermeasures against US tariffs.
This move followed President Trump’s earlier decision to suspend planned tariffs on multiple countries, signaling a potential thaw in transatlantic trade tensions and boosting confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
EUR/USD Supported by Fed Rate Cut Bets and Dovish Outlook
Traders are increasingly betting on a shift in US monetary policy, with expectations rising for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The trade war risks, coupled with softening US economic indicators, have pushed markets to anticipate a more accommodative Fed stance in the coming months.
Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Their comments will be closely watched for clues on future rate policy, especially as investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
A stronger-than-expected reading could provide some support to the US Dollar and limit further EUR/USD gains.
Eyes on US PPI, Consumer Sentiment, and Fed Commentary
Looking ahead, traders are now focused on upcoming US data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Both reports are scheduled for release later today and will be closely watched for clues on inflation and consumer confidence.
Moreover, the comments from Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, could offer fresh insight into the central bank's policy path.
Hence, the stronger-than-expected set of data or a hawkish tone from Fed speakers may limit EUR/USD’s upside in the near term, but for now, the pair remains firmly in bullish territory.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues its bullish breakout, pushing toward the $1.13830 region after clearing the key $1.12804 pivot. The pair is riding a strong upside channel, supported by a steep RSI climb currently at 76.22—well into overbought territory. Still, momentum remains in the bulls’ favor following yesterday’s soft U.S. inflation data, which weighed on the dollar and bolstered euro demand.
Price is now pressing against immediate resistance near $1.13830, with the next target at $1.14111. A sustained break above this level could expose the $1.14483 zone. On the downside, $1.12804 now acts as a critical support level, and below that, $1.12021 is the line in the sand for short-term bulls.
Technically, the pair is well supported above the 50 SMA, currently at $1.10382, and has room to run if risk sentiment stays upbeat. However, with RSI flashing overbought, traders should be cautious of short-term pullbacks or profit-taking near the highs. Momentum remains strong but needs confirmation through a daily close above $1.14111.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 Index extended its losses and fell sharply to the 5,268 level during early US trading hours on Friday, as fears over an escalating US-China trade war rattled investor sentiment. The sell-off intensified after both Washington and Beijing introduced fresh tariff hikes, stoking fears of a broader economic slowdown.
S&P 500 Hit by US Tariff Surge and China’s Retaliation
The decline in the S&P 500 came shortly after the White House confirmed a cumulative 145% tariff on Chinese imports, with the new round including a 125% hike on top of the existing 20% duty. In retaliation, China’s Finance Ministry announced it would raise tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%, effective Saturday, April 12.
This tit-for-tat action between the two largest economies has triggered a wave of risk aversion, sending equities lower while safe-haven assets like Gold rallied. The US Dollar also weakened significantly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a three-year low below 99.50, as markets feared the worsening trade war would weigh on economic growth.
S&P 500 Under Pressure from Fed Cut Bets and Weak US Inflation
Adding to the bearish pressure on equities, soft US inflation data has further raised expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of 2.6%, while core CPI rose just 2.8%, below the expected 3.0%. The monthly CPI even posted a surprise 0.1% drop.
As a result, market participants are now pricing in up to 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first move potentially arriving as early as June. The dovish outlook has added to concerns over slowing economic momentum and pressured the S&P 500 even further.
Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting signaled that Fed policymakers are facing a difficult balancing act between tackling inflation and supporting growth — a dynamic that adds uncertainty to the market outlook.
Global Trade Risks and Weak China Data Amplify S&P 500 Declines
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
- EURUSD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Meanwhile, global growth worries were compounded by disappointing inflation data from China. The country’s CPI dropped 0.1% in March, while PPI contracted by 2.5% annually — both worse than expected. These figures reflect cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy, further weighing on risk assets like US equities.
Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for countries other than China in a bid to ease trade tensions, the gesture did little to soothe investor concerns, as the escalating standoff with Beijing remains the dominant risk factor.
Looking ahead, market focus now shifts to the upcoming US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. However, unless trade tensions ease, the S&P 500 may continue to face downside pressure in the sessions ahead.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize after its recent selloff, now consolidating around 5,268. A modest bounce from the 5,200 zone has brought the index back into a key technical confluence near the descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at 5,433.
This area is critical, as it marks a cluster of resistance from both a structural and moving average standpoint.
The index remains range-bound between 5,208 and 5,345, with short-term buyers showing interest above 5,211 support. The RSI at 49.76 reflects a neutral momentum tone, suggesting potential for either a breakout or more consolidation.
A sustained move above 5,345 would expose the next key resistance at 5,400, while a failure to clear this level could see the index revisiting 5,211 and possibly 5,108.
Price structure suggests a higher low is forming near 5,200, with the broader uptrend still technically intact as long as the ascending trendline holds. The 50 SMA, currently at 5,433, will act as a key barrier for bulls to reclaim in order to shift sentiment more decisively upward.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged close to record highs, nearing the $3,230 mark in European trading on Friday. This surge is driven by escalating tensions in the US-China trade war and growing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which are fueling a broader risk-off sentiment and bolstering demand for safe-haven assets.
US-China Trade War Intensifies, Boosting Gold
The recent sharp escalation in the US-China trade war has significantly impacted global market sentiment. China has retaliated by imposing a 125% tariff on US goods, an increase from the previous 84%, while the US sharply raised tariffs on Chinese imports, introducing a new 125% levy on top of an existing 20%, making the total tariff burden a striking 145%.
This aggressive stance has increased fears of broader economic repercussions, further driving investors toward the safety of gold.
As a result, the gold has emerged as a primary hedge against this uncertainty, with traders flocking to the precious metal as a store of value. In the meantime, the US dollar has also faced strong sell-offs across the board as traders digest the trade war fallout and its potential impact on economic growth.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation Fuels Gold's Rally
Apart from this, the recent US inflation data has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates soon.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a yearly increase of just 2.4%, which was lower than the expected 2.6% and also less than February’s 2.8%. Similarly, the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, also below forecasts.
These weaker inflation numbers have made markets believe that the Fed could reduce interest rates by as much as one full percentage point before the year ends. Lower interest rates usually mean cheaper borrowing and less support for the US dollar, making it easier for investors to turn to other assets.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the dollar to other major currencies, has dropped to around 100.20. This decline in the dollar has helped push gold prices higher, as gold becomes more attractive when the dollar weakens.
At the same time, concerns about both the US and global economic outlooks are leading investors to expect a more dovish approach from the Fed. If the Fed signals rate cuts, non-yielding assets like gold — which don’t offer interest but hold value — become more appealing, encouraging a shift in investment strategies.
China’s Economic Struggles Add to the Mix
China's economic data also paints a bleak picture, with March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.1%, worse than the expected 0.1% increase.
The country’s Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted by 2.5%, more than anticipated. This slowdown in China’s economy adds to the broader global uncertainty, pushing traders to seek the safety of gold.
Outlook for Gold
Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on upcoming US economic data, including the March Producer Price Index (PPI) and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. These reports will provide further insight into inflationary pressures and may influence the Fed's decision-making process.
Despite occasional corrections, gold is well-positioned to maintain its bullish trajectory, supported by growing safe-haven demand, expectations of dovish Fed policies, and global economic uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to climb, extending its rally to a session high of $3,213.16 before cooling slightly to $3,208.71. Price action is pushing against a significant resistance zone at $3,219, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level.
While momentum remains bullish, traders should be cautious of a short-term pullback as the RSI at 74.14 signals overbought conditions and a potential bearish divergence.
The metal is trading well above its 50-period EMA at $3,065.10, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, a rejection near the $3,219 resistance could trigger a corrective move. The key pivot support sits at $3,160, a level that previously acted as both resistance and now flipped to potential support.
Immediate resistance is marked at $3,219, with higher targets at $3,252 and $3,338 should bullish momentum continue. On the downside, a break below $3,160 could open the door toward $3,124 and further to $3,095.
Given the strong advance, traders may look for a reversal pattern near $3,219 for a potential short entry. A break below the $3,160 pivot would confirm near-term bearish pressure and shift sentiment toward consolidation.
Related News
- EURUSD Price Analysis – April 11, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair rose to around the 0.6187 level on Thursday, following positive news about renewed trade talks between Australia and the European Union (EU).
The EU announced plans to revisit the stalled negotiations, with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic proposing a new timeline to restart discussions with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell.
Although the previous round of talks collapsed two years ago due to disagreements over agricultural access, these new developments have raised hopes for a resolution, boosting sentiment towards the Australian Dollar.
Weak Australian Data and RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD
Despite the positive news from the EU, the Australian Dollar faces pressure from weak domestic economic data. Consumer confidence took a hit, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling by 6% in April after a 4% rise in March.
Business sentiment also weakened, as the NAB Business Confidence Index dropped to -3 in March, marking its lowest point since November.
This disappointing economic data has bolstered expectations for more dovish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Markets are now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first likely to come in May, followed by further reductions in July and August. This dovish outlook is keeping the Australian Dollar under pressure.
Global Trade Tensions Limit AUD Upside Despite EU Progress
On the global front, the escalating trade tensions continue to limit the AUD's upside potential. US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% has further intensified the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
In retaliation, China increased tariffs on all US imports to 84% and blacklisted six major US companies. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding global trade, particularly between two of Australia’s largest trade partners, is weighing on investor sentiment.
China's latest economic data has also raised concerns about a slowdown. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-over-year in March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%.
These signs of weakening demand in China, Australia's largest trading partner, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy Outlook in Focus
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, hovering around 102.60, as traders await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed concerns about the dual risks of rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
Despite these concerns, policymakers emphasized that future decisions would be based on data. Currently, the market is pricing in only a 40% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In a positive move for global markets, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most US trade partners, easing fears of further trade tensions. This step is seen as helping stabilize the market amid ongoing uncertainties.
Therefore, the US dollar's weakness and President Trump's tariff pause could boost risk sentiment, likely supporting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek higher-yielding assets, driving demand for the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6184 after a strong recovery from last week's low of 0.5930. The pair has climbed back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6159 and is now testing resistance near 0.6213.
A clean break above this level could accelerate gains toward 0.6237, aligning with the descending trendline from the recent high of 0.6388.
However, momentum appears stretched. The RSI stands at 67, just shy of overbought territory, hinting at possible consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6160, followed by 0.6107 and the 50-period moving average at 0.6046. Until bulls confirm a close above 0.6213, upside moves may be limited.
AUD/USD has reclaimed key levels, but a decisive close above 0.6213 is needed to fuel further gains. Watch for RSI cooling or trendline breakout.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025