Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices extended their meteoric rise on Tuesday, hitting a fresh record above $3,100 per ounce. The move comes ahead of the April 2 unveiling of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which traders expect to impact global trade flows and risk sentiment.
The surge in gold is also supported by broader macro drivers: softening U.S. growth data, geopolitical instability, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. CME FedWatch now prices in 63 basis points of cuts by year-end, adding further momentum to bullion.
Fundamentals Support Gold’s Bullish Outlook
Gold’s rally is underpinned by more than short-term policy speculation. The metal posted its strongest quarterly performance since 1986, fueled by:
Sustained central bank gold purchases, especially from emerging markets
Rebounding demand for gold-backed ETFs
Geopolitical risks spanning both Europe and the Middle East
A weakening U.S. dollar and stabilizing Treasury yields
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the April 2 tariff event may be just the beginning: “Automobile tariffs on April 3 could extend uncertainty further. Unless macro conditions improve significantly, gold buyers are likely to remain active on any pullbacks.”
With global growth concerns still unresolved, investor appetite for gold appears resilient.
What’s Next: $3,200 in Sight?
Gold's next technical target lies near $3,200, a level many traders are eyeing if current momentum holds. On the downside, support lies near the previous breakout zone around $3,085.
Upcoming U.S. economic releases could prove pivotal. Tuesday's job openings data and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report may either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt. Any surprises could spark short-term volatility across commodities and FX markets.
Until then, the bullish case for gold remains intact—backed by macro risk, monetary policy shifts, and continued investor demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices remain firmly bid, holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has underpinned the bullish trend since March 25.
The metal continues to find strong dip-buying interest, with the recent pullback stalling above the $3,127 pivot point—coinciding with the lower boundary of the bullish channel and offering technical validation for near-term support.
Despite a minor correction from intraday highs around $3,148, gold bulls appear to be defending the structure, and the broader uptrend remains intact barring a breakdown below $3,110.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 58.93 from overbought territory, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at $3,106.56 continues to track closely below price, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend and providing dynamic support.
A confirmed move above $3,148 could open the door toward $3,165 and potentially challenge the $3,185 level, where previous supply zones could re-emerge.
Conversely, a break below $3,127 may signal further profit-taking, exposing $3,110 and $3,099 as next downside targets.
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