EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 1.0820. The pair faced pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising concerns over trade tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to around 104.15 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates.
This dampened expectations of any near-term rate cuts, further supporting the USD and weighing on the euro. As a result, EUR/USD struggled to find demand and continued its bearish trajectory.
Fed’s Tight Policy and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row, maintaining them within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there was no rush to cut rates, pointing to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook.
His comments reinforced expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for an extended period, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, Powell cautioned that new policies under US President Donald Trump could slow economic growth and push inflation higher.
This has led market participants to anticipate potential policy changes that could impact global trade and inflation trends, adding to concerns in the financial markets.
The Fed’s tight policy stance and Powell’s warnings strengthened the US Dollar, making the euro less attractive. As a result, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid economic uncertainty.
Euro Weakens Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs and Trade War Risks
On the other hand, the shared currency dropped further as investors reacted to concerns over Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are set for discussion on April 2.
Market speculation suggests these tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war with the US could hurt economic growth, even if its impact on inflation is temporary.
Investors are worried about Germany, a major exporter to the US, as Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on foreign cars.
Currently, the US charges only 2.5% on German cars, while the Eurozone imposes a 10% tax on US cars. These concerns have weakened the euro, keeping it under pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
Economic Developments and Market Outlook
On the economic front, investors are closely watching the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, due on Monday, In Europe, the German government has approved a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund to boost economic resilience, with support from both the Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This move is aimed at protecting the economy amid concerns over a potential trade war.
For the EUR/USD pair, the focus remains on the US economic data and how it may impact the US Dollar, while Europe's efforts to stabilize its economy could help support the euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) fell slightly during the European session on Friday after hitting a record high the day before.
However, the decline was mainly due to the bullish US dollar, which gaining strength for the third straight session, staying near its weekly high.
Moreover, some traders took profits before the weekend, leading to a pullback after gold’s strong rally.
However, the downside seems limited, as investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy direction. Market participants widely anticipate that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates this year, capping further gains for the dollar and offering support to gold price.
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Demand
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing conflicts continue to strengthen gold’s safe-haven appeal as tensions remain high in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war is also not showing any sign of slowing down. Notably, Ukraine recently launched a drone attack on Russia’s Engels airbase, prompting Moscow to respond with 171 drone strikes.
These developments have increased investor concerns about economic instability. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Ukraine conflict, adding more uncertainty to the global situation.
On the other side, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Israel resumed airstrikes on Gaza, breaking a previously held ceasefire with Hamas.
The retaliatory rocket attacks from Hamas, though not causing casualties, have further fueled market uncertainty. These ongoing risks continue to bolster gold’s position as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Risks Support Gold
Despite the bullish bias in US dollar, the ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year continue to weigh on the currency.
The Fed recently indicated its intention to implement two 25 basis-point rate cuts before the end of 2024, citing concerns over slowing economic growth.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also acknowledged that trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump could further dampen economic expansion, reinforcing the case for monetary policy easing.
Market expectations currently price in potential rate cuts in June, July, and October, creating hurdles for the US dollar. This, in turn, acts as a supportive factor for gold, which thrives in a lower interest rate environment.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch any updates on US trade policies, central bank decisions, and geopolitical risks for further direction. For now, gold remains well-positioned, with limited downside amid prevailing uncertainties in global markets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,033.97, showing marginal gains of 0.03% as it consolidates above the key 50-day EMA at $3,027.11.
The market is balancing between a bullish continuation and a potential retracement, with $3,051.45 acting as the pivot point for today’s session.
Despite a recent pullback, gold remains in an upward trend, finding strong support near $3,006.31.
If prices hold above this level, the next bullish targets are $3,057.40, followed by $3,068.71 and $3,078.95, where profit-taking could emerge.
A sustained move above $3,051.45 would confirm bullish momentum, paving the way for further gains.
Conversely, failure to hold above $3,027 may lead to a test of the $3,006.31 support level, with extended downside risk toward $2,993.42 and $2,979.20.
The 50-day EMA remains a key short-term indicator, keeping the bias slightly bullish unless breached.
However, traders should watch for profit-taking near $3,050, especially if the dollar strengthens. A break below $3,006 would shift sentiment bearish, signaling deeper correction levels.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) extended its losses and dropped below 5,662, hitting an intra-day low of 5,632. The broad market index remains under pressure as investors react to heightened geopolitical tensions, US tariff threats, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment and S&P 500
Market sentiment was further dampened by escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia and Ukraine intensified aerial attacks, with Ukraine targeting Russia’s Engels airbase, resulting in fire and explosions.
Moreover, Russia launched 171 drones over Ukrainian territory, escalating the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are set to hold talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday regarding the ongoing war.
On the other side, the tensions in the Middle East have also worsened, as Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza, ending a ceasefire with Hamas that had been in place since late January.
In response, Hamas launched three rockets at Israel on Thursday, further unsettling global markets. Therefore, the increasing geopolitical instability drove investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, while risk-sensitive equities, including the S&P 500, faced renewed selling pressure.
Trade War Fears and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Equities
Apart from this, investors remain concerned over US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff threats, set to take effect on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs, on top of a 25% duty on steel and aluminum implemented in February, has raised fears of a potential trade war.
Therefore, the lack of clarity on the specifics of these tariffs is keeping market participants cautious, leading to continued selling pressure on equities.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Stronger Dollar Weigh on S&P 500
On the US Fed front, the Federal Reserve has indicated plans for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, citing concerns over economic growth amid the uncertainty of Trump's trade policies.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs could dampen economic activity, leading to increased speculation that the central bank will lower interest rates in June, July, and October.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to strengthen for the third consecutive day, creating headwinds for equities and further pressuring the S&P 500.
Looking ahead, investors will closely watch updates on US tariff policies, geopolitical developments, and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings to gauge the future direction of the market.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading at 5662.88, holding steady with a slight uptick of 0.01% as traders navigate a market influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve signals.
The 50-day EMA at 5662.39 is currently aligning with price action, acting as a key dynamic level that could dictate near-term direction.
The pivot point at 5686.10 serves as a critical marker for today’s session. If the index fails to reclaim this level, a bearish move could accelerate toward immediate support at 5599.00, followed by 5506.10 and 5407.38.
The lack of upside momentum suggests potential weakness, with profit-taking emerging after recent highs.
On the upside, resistance is noted at 5780.12, with further barriers at 5859.14 and 5938.11. A breakout above these levels would suggest renewed bullish sentiment, possibly leading to fresh all-time highs.
A sell-off below 5686 could confirm a bearish breakout, increasing the likelihood of a correction toward 5561.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices maintained its bullish trend and surged to new heights on Thursday, reaching a fresh record high around 3,057. However, the bullish rally was driven by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts later this year, which has fueled strong demand for the precious metal.
Moreover, the metal found strong support amid heightened concerns over ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Fed's Rate-Cut Expectations Support Gold's Momentum
As we mentioned, the rally was mainly supported by the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. Notably, the U.S. central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged in its latest meeting, but the market is pricing in the possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.
This dovish outlook has put pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has been weighed down by expectations of lower yields, making gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
Analysts are anticipating a 66% chance of a rate cut in July, which has led to an uptick in gold's appeal. As lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar less attractive, investors have turned to gold, boosting its price further.
However, the strength of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.3% in recent sessions, slightly capped gold's gains, making the precious metal more expensive for foreign buyers. Despite this, geopolitical factors and central bank demand for gold remain supportive, keeping the upward momentum intact.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand
On the other side, the geopolitical risk has also played a crucial role in gold’s rally. The ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, have heightened concerns about global economic stability.
Trump's tariffs, seen as inflationary, have raised the risk of a trade war, which has been a driving force behind gold’s ascent this year.
In addition, tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Gaza, have kept safe-haven demand for gold elevated.
The Israeli military's limited ground incursion into Gaza, coupled with warnings of a wider war, has added to the uncertainty. These geopolitical concerns, along with the potential for further escalation, are likely to continue supporting gold's rally.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $3,043, down 0.04%, as it consolidates near a key pivot level of $3,044.55. Despite the modest decline, the broader trend remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent global economic uncertainties.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,016 provides strong near-term support, keeping gold within an upward channel.
If prices sustain above the pivot point, the next resistance levels to watch are $3,057.40, followed by $3,067.87 and $3,078.95. A break above these levels could signal renewed bullish momentum, with gold eyeing further highs.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $3,033.30, with a break below this level exposing the next key supports at $3,023.07 and $3,010.48. A move below the 200-day EMA at $2,980 would indicate a shift in sentiment, potentially triggering profit-taking.
For now, gold remains bullish above $3,044, with traders eyeing a breakout toward $3,068. A stop-loss below $3,033 is recommended to mitigate downside risks.
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- USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced strong bearish pressure, trading near the 0.6285 level as the Australian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar. This decline was largely attributed to disappointing domestic employment data and the continued strength of the US Dollar.
Australia's February Employment Report Shows Sharp Job Losses, Weighing on AUD
On the data front, the Australia's employment report for February revealed a sharp drop in jobs, with the Employment Change showing a loss of 52.8K jobs, compared to the expected 30.0K increase.
This was a stark contrast to the 30.5K rise reported in January (revised from 44K), highlighting a concerning slowdown in the labor market.
The Australian Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with market expectations, but the weaker-than-expected job growth weighed heavily on market sentiment, driving the AUD lower.
US Dollar Strengthened by Hawkish Fed Remarks and Geopolitical Tensions Weighing on AUD/USD
Meanwhile, the US dollar found strength from hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized that the labor market remains strong and inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target, though it remains elevated. This reaffirmed expectations of further tightening, which helped maintain the USD's bullish momentum.
On the geopolitical front, global trade tensions also contributed to the market's cautious tone. Former US President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff threats, including reciprocal tariffs and plans to impose fees on Chinese-linked vessels, have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global trade.
Moreover, Trump's ongoing trade disputes with China are creating further uncertainty in the markets, weighing on the Aussie Dollar.
In addition, the temporary agreement between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to pause strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine failed to quell broader concerns over the conflict, further adding to the risk-averse sentiment in the markets. These geopolitical factors further pressured the AUD/USD pair, limiting any potential upside.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.6317, up 0.03%, as it attempts to recover from recent declines. However, the pair remains below the key pivot level of $0.6332, suggesting that bearish pressure persists.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6347 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping the pair in a downward trajectory.
If AUD/USD fails to break above this level, it could face renewed selling pressure, with immediate support at $0.6298. A break below this level could open the door for further losses toward $0.6277 and $0.6258.
On the upside, resistance at $0.6363 remains a key hurdle for bulls. If AUD/USD manages to break above this level, further gains toward $0.6390 and $0.6415 could follow. However, with the broader trend favoring the U.S. dollar due to Federal Reserve policy expectations, any upside moves may be short-lived.
A break below $0.6332 is likely to reinforce a bearish trend, with a downside target at $0.6298. Traders should watch for a break above $0.6363 to confirm a potential shift in momentum.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trend, hovering around the 148.50 level.
The primary factor behind this decline is the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates throughout the year, which is strengthening the Japanese yen.
In addition, global uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and geopolitical risks is adding to the appeal of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. These factors have contributed to the slide in the USD/JPY pair.
Moreover, the modest rebound in the US Dollar has prevented a sharper decline in the USD/JPY pair, as the USD continues to be supported by investor sentiment.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year are limiting the USD's strength, capping further losses in the USD/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve Decisions Impact the USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently finished its two-day policy review and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that Japan's economy and inflation are uncertain.
He emphasized that reaching the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility and that the bank will take action if needed.
This has led to market speculation that the BoJ may raise rates in the future, which could strengthen the Japanese yen (JPY).
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same in its latest meeting and suggested there could be two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
The Fed also lowered its growth forecast due to concerns about President Trump's trade policies affecting the US economy.
However, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, which has helped support the US dollar. Despite being cautious, the market still expects a high chance (over 65%) that the Fed will start cutting rates later this year.
Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand Boost JPY
Further exacerbating the downward pressure on USD/JPY is the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tensions between Israel and Gaza, coupled with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a proposed ceasefire with Ukraine, are increasing uncertainty in the global landscape.
As a result, the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status has been reinforced, adding to the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading near 148.62, up 0.02%, as buyers attempt to regain momentum following a brief consolidation. The pair is holding above the pivot level of 148.18, reinforcing the underlying bullish trend.
The 50-day EMA at 149.08 remains a key resistance zone, limiting further upside potential. If the pair breaks above 148.94, a rally toward 149.15 and 149.38 could follow.
However, sustained strength beyond these levels would require a broader shift in market sentiment, particularly from Federal Reserve policy expectations and risk appetite trends.
On the downside, 147.83 serves as immediate support, with a break below exposing 147.41 and 147.02. A break above 148.94 would confirm further upside, while a failure to hold 148.18 could introduce selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0873 level. However, the decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Another factor weighing on the EUR/USD pair is the Euro's underperformance, despite Germany’s debt restructuring plan, which raises concerns about inflation and the European Central Bank's cautious approach to monetary expansion.
Impact of Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Market Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained traction as the CME FedWatch tool shows the Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second consecutive meeting where the Fed chooses a "wait and see" approach, keeping borrowing rates unchanged.
Market expectations are high that the Fed will stay cautious, especially as they await more clarity on the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump. Investors are increasingly confident in this decision, anticipating no immediate changes to rates.
Euro Weakness Amidst Domestic and Geopolitical Developments
Despite Germany’s approval of a debt restructuring plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing defense spending, the Euro underperformed, contributing to the decline in the EUR/USD pair. The plan is seen as pro-growth for the Eurozone, but it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
As the plan progresses, higher inflation could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a more cautious approach to its monetary policy, slowing down its current cycle of expansion.
The ECB has already reduced interest rates six times since June 2024, and the ongoing concerns about inflation have created uncertainty for the Eurozone's economic outlook. These factors combined are weighing heavily on the Euro, making it harder for the currency to gain support despite efforts to boost growth.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, and market participants are closely monitoring the ECB’s next moves.
Moreover, the impact of US tariff policies remains a significant concern, as President Trump's agenda could worsen price pressures in the Eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that each country will soon receive their specific "tariff" numbers, with April 2 set as an important date for these updates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) reached a new all-time high of $3,045 on Wednesday. However, the strong bullish bias was fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Moreover, investors turned to gold as a safe-haven asset after Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, on corruption and terrorism-related charges. This political tensions added to global concerns, increasing demand for gold as a secure investment.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise as US-Russia Talks Fail to Secure Ceasefire
Apart from this, the gains were further bolstered by a key phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders agreed to a temporary 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, but they did not reach any major ceasefire agreement in the Ukraine conflict.
In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the talks, stating that any negotiations without Ukraine’s involvement would not be effective. This ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Policy Decision and Economic Concerns Keep Gold in Focus
On the US front, the Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision and release updated economic projections during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Traders are closely monitoring this event for clues about future policy moves. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, while the probability of a rate cut in June stands at 64.8%.
Although expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates could limit gold’s upside, worries about a possible US economic slowdown and Trump’s proposed tariff policies are keeping demand for the precious metal strong.
Gold’s Long-Term Rally Faces Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical and Economic Shifts
Despite gold’s record-breaking surge, some analysts warn that its long-term bullish momentum may not be guaranteed. However, the temporary pause in attacks between Russia and Ukraine has slightly reduced risk sentiment, which could limit further gains.
At the same time, data from Bank of America shows large outflows from US equities, suggesting some investors are shifting their focus. Looking ahead, gold’s movement will rely on the Fed’s decisions and the ongoing geopolitical situation.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory, trading around $3,038.86, as investors remain cautious ahead of key economic events.
The metal is consolidating above the pivot point at $3,036.51, suggesting strong buyer interest at this level. Immediate resistance stands at $3,051.92, followed by $3,062.42, where a breakout could trigger further gains toward the $3,074.10 mark.
On the downside, support at $3,027.81 is keeping short-term pullbacks in check. A breach of this level could expose gold to further downside pressure toward $3,015.97 and $3,006.15. However, the 50-day EMA at $2,996.75 reinforces the broader bullish trend, offering dynamic support.
Gold’s recent price action suggests that traders are awaiting a catalyst, possibly from upcoming Federal Reserve statements or shifting macroeconomic conditions.
If gold holds above $3,036, buyers may push prices toward the $3,052 mark in the short term, making a case for a bullish breakout. However, a drop below $3,026 could invite selling pressure, leading to a potential retest of key support levels.
For now, traders should watch for a break above $3,051.92 to confirm continued upside momentum. Meanwhile, a sustained move below $3,036.51 could signal weakness, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
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- GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair is under pressure, trading around 1.2960. Traders are taking a cautious approach as they await important economic events.
Market participants are looking ahead to the UK labor market data for the three months ending in January and the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday.
UK Economic Uncertainty and Labor Market Data Weigh on GBP
On the GBP front, the upcoming release of the UK’s labor market data is crucial, particularly the Average Earnings figures. Analysts expect a steady growth rate of 5.9% for Average Earnings, both including and excluding bonuses.
However, reports from Brightmine show a slowdown in pay growth, mainly due to businesses being cautious ahead of the payroll tax increase in April. Many companies are planning hiring freezes or restructuring, with some considering pay freezes, which could weigh on earnings growth.
At the same time, the Bank of England's (BoE) policy decision is a key focus for the markets. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.5%, with a split vote of 7-2 in favor of maintaining the current rate.
However, two members, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra, are likely to support a rate cut. This divergence in the BoE's stance, combined with weak earnings growth, could put pressure on the GBP/USD, potentially weakening the pound further against the dollar.
Impact of US Federal Reserve's Policy Decision and Trade Tensions on GBP/USD Performance
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%, there is a strong possibility of a rate cut by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed’s dot plot, which shows policymakers’ expectations for future rate changes, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), will be closely watched by traders.
Moreover, ongoing trade tensions, especially the US’s tariff policies, could add inflationary pressures, with some estimates suggesting a 1% increase in inflation in the short term. This uncertainty may impact market sentiment and influence the performance of the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading around $1.29787, down slightly as the pair faces resistance near the $1.29908 pivot point.
Despite recent attempts to push higher, the pound remains under pressure, with immediate resistance at $1.30097 and further upside barriers at $1.30280 and $1.30457. If buyers fail to reclaim $1.29908, the pair could see renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, $1.29521 is the first level of support, followed by $1.29286 and $1.29106 if bearish momentum accelerates.
The 50-day EMA at $1.29616 is providing dynamic support, but a breakdown below this moving average could trigger a sharper decline.
A break below $1.29908 could confirm additional weakness, targeting $1.29521 and $1.29286 in the near term.
Conversely, if the pair manages to rise above $1.30097, it may attract fresh buying interest, but sustained gains remain uncertain amid global risk factors.
Traders should monitor $1.29521 closely, as a breach of this level could accelerate losses, pushing GBP/USD toward $1.29286.
For now, the pair remains vulnerable to downside risks, with price action likely dictated by upcoming economic data and central bank commentary.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bearish below $1.43084, with downside targets at $1.42764 and $1.42409.
- Resistance at $1.43388 must be broken for bulls to regain control and push toward $1.43793.
- Oil price strength and Fed policy shifts will influence USD/CAD’s next major move.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.43080
Take Profit – 1.42573
Stop Loss – 1.43374
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$507/ -$294
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29