Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is battling to hold the $3,100 level as traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data.
The yellow metal saw a sharp decline on Thursday, losing over 2.50% before recovering to close 0.65% lower at $3,115. Despite the rebound, gold remains under pressure as investors reassess their positions.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Influence Gold and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to set the tone for gold’s next move. Market forecasts range from 80,000 to 200,000 jobs, with a consensus at 135,000.
The data will be crucial in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments likely to provide further guidance. Markets are now factoring in up to four rate cuts before the end of 2024.
Gold Surge Driven by Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Gold has gained nearly 18% this year, supported by economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of a May rate cut at 33.2%, while June remains the most likely start for easing.
Traders are pricing in three to four cuts this year, fueled by concerns over slowing US economic growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index has dropped to -2.84%, adding to fears of a downturn.
Stagflation Concerns Drive Gold's Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset
On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about stagflation—where economic growth slows while inflation remains high—are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors often turn to gold in uncertain economic conditions, making it a preferred choice during market volatility.
While short-term fluctuations may continue, gold’s long-term movement will largely depend on US economic trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and global geopolitical developments.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trade within a rising channel, showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The current price of $3,103.86 reflects a modest rebound from a key intraday low, finding support just above the pivot point at $3,090.
With price now holding slightly above that level, bulls are attempting to reclaim control, though momentum remains cautious.
Immediate resistance is seen at $3,123, a level that aligns closely with the 50-period EMA at $3,121.96. A decisive break above this zone would expose $3,148 and $3,167, areas that previously capped upward movement.
On the downside, $3,087 and $3,066 represent the next supports, with a sharper decline potentially targeting the channel's lower trendline near $3,054.
The RSI is currently at 45.80, suggesting neutral momentum after a pullback from overbought territory.
This aligns with the recent correction, though the broader structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above the trendline and $3,066 support.
Technically, a buy signal is favored above $3,090, with a suggested take-profit at $3,123 and a protective stop-loss at $3,066.
A close above the $3,123 resistance would likely validate a continuation toward the $3,148–$3,167 zone. Until then, traders should watch for price action clarity near the 50 EMA to confirm trend strength.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
JOIN LHFX TODAY
24/7 live support, lightning fast withdrawals, guaranteed safe and reliable trading platforms with a true ECN broker.