Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged back above the $3,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $3,055 level amid escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations.
However, the renewed strength in gold was driven by a combination of technical recovery and rising global uncertainties, particularly the intensifying trade war between the United States and China.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on Chinese imports, and China has promised to "fight to the end." These tensions are increasing global uncertainty, driving up demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
U.S. Economic Uncertainty and Weakening Dollar Drive Gold's Upward Momentum
Moreover, the upward rally is also tied to the broader market environment, which was uncertain. As stocks in Europe and the U.S. recover, investors are facing challenges in bond markets and changes in U.S. interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the Fed to cut rates in 2025, a sharp shift from last week's neutral outlook.
This uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has also led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. With the possibility of rate cuts increasing, demand for the greenback remains subdued.
This trend has given gold further momentum, as investors seek out safe-haven assets amid a declining dollar and uncertain global economic prospects.
Gold Reserves Increase in West Australia, Supporting Bullish Gold Sentiment
On the supply side, West Australia’s Gold Road Resources has reported an increase in gold reserves at its flagship asset, signaling a promising outlook for future gold production.
The company’s announcement that its open-pit mine may hold more gold than initially estimated has added to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. This comes at a time when global geopolitical and economic uncertainties are pushing the metal’s price higher.
Traders Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts, Boosting Gold Market
Traders are keenly watching the upcoming Fed meetings, with a growing consensus that the central bank may reduce interest rates in the near term. As of Tuesday, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 31.7% chance of a rate cut in the May meeting, while the probability of a rate cut in June is nearly 97%.
These expectations of easier monetary policy are bolstering the gold market, as lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is attempting a recovery, trading at $3,012.81 after finding short-term support just above the $2,990 level. The rebound follows a steep sell-off that pulled the metal from $3,152 highs into the $2,953–$2,989 range, where buyers stepped in.
Price has now reclaimed the $2,990 pivot, flipping near-term bias back toward a cautious bullish stance. With the $3,034 resistance now in focus, a sustained push through this level could invite fresh momentum toward $3,084 and potentially $3,152.
The RSI has edged up to 45.69, reflecting improved, but not yet strong, upside momentum. Price remains below the 50-period SMA at $3,071, suggesting the broader trend remains technically challenged. Traders should monitor whether gold can maintain intraday strength above $2,990. A break back below this key level would open downside exposure toward $2,953 and possibly $2,932.
Until price convincingly clears the $3,034–$3,071 resistance zone, upside should be treated with tactical caution. Momentum remains reactive to news flow, and traders may prefer confirmation via volume or breakout candles above $3,034 before adding new positions.
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