Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to sustain its bullish rally and edged lower around the 1.0965 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which making a rebound after a previous sell-off triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Moreover, traders seem cautious ahead of important economic data, including the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, has bounced back above the 102.00 level after falling to a six-month low near 101.25. This recovery highlights the strength of the USD, despite ongoing economic uncertainties, especially related to the trade war.
Economists predict that the US economy added 135,000 jobs in March, a slight decrease from the 151,000 in February.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.9% year-on-year, a slower pace compared to February's 4% increase.
While the labor market data is not expected to significantly change expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, inflation concerns continue to dominate investor focus.
However, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are increasingly predicting a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, driven by the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has dropped to 65.8%, down from 81.5% a week earlier. This shift has fueled the recent strength of the USD, contributing to the EUR/USD pair’s pullback.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Tariff Concerns and ECB Policy Expectations
On the flip side, the Euro (EUR) is also under pressure, as investors expect Trump’s tariffs to negatively affect the Eurozone’s economic growth.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the consequences of the tariffs would be “dire” for millions of people worldwide, adding that the Eurozone is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with the US fail.
On top of tariff concerns, market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ease its monetary policy further in April have added to the EUR’s decline.
ECB officials believe that inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs is unlikely to persist, clearing the way for continued easing.
Meanwhile, German economic data is fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s economic health. The Federal Statistics Office reported that Germany’s factory orders remained flat in February, following a significant 5.5% decline in January.
This stagnation in Germany’s manufacturing sector suggests a lack of momentum, further weighing on the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is advancing firmly, trading around $1.1062 after clearing the key psychological resistance at $1.1013. This breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, aided by a strong RSI reading of 72.24, which reflects overbought conditions but also sustained demand.
The pair is comfortably positioned above the 50-day SMA at $1.0626, with price action trending well within an ascending channel.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1147, with bulls eyeing extended targets at $1.1220 and $1.1286. On the downside, a break below $1.1013 would shift focus to $1.0943 and $1.0893, while $1.0783 serves as a deeper support level. Despite overbought RSI, the bullish structure remains intact unless $1.1013 is breached to the downside.
As long as EUR/USD holds above its pivot, momentum favors continued upside—particularly if macro data supports the euro or weakens the dollar.
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