GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair has gained some bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of 1.2934.
However, this recovery seems to lack strong conviction, as the broader global economic outlook remains uncertain. Despite this, the pair is getting a lift from the ongoing decline in the US Dollar, which has been weakening due to changing market expectations.
Bearish US Dollar Outlook Amid Trade War Concerns and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the reason for the weaker US dollar is growing concern about global economic growth, sparked by US President Donald Trump's announcement of large reciprocal tariffs.
These tariffs have raised fears of a prolonged trade war, which could slow down global economic activity. This uncertainty has shaken investor confidence, leading to lower risk appetite and significant losses in global stock markets.
While the US Dollar initially strengthened as a safe-haven currency, its rise has started to slow down as market expectations shift towards the Federal Reserve taking a more dovish approach.
Therefore, this shift in market expectations has led to a more cautious outlook for the USD. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates again, especially if the US economy slows down due to the tariffs.
As a result, the USD has had trouble attracting buyers, which has helped support the GBP/USD pair.
GBP Strengthened by BoE's Slower Rate Cuts and Positive Outlook for GBP/USD
On the other hand, the British Pound has drawn support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will slow its pace of rate cuts compared to other central banks, including the Fed.
Therefore, the BoE's slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed strengthens the GBP, supporting a more positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair, potentially leading to upward movement in its value.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
After an aggressive sell-off from $1.3206, the British pound (GBP/USD) has entered a corrective phase, but gains remain capped below the $1.2955 resistance level. The pair is trading just under the 50-period SMA at $1.2957, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—now acting as resistance.
Price failed to sustain above the key pivot at $1.2913 and is hovering near a critical support zone. If this level breaks, it may open the door toward $1.2821, where the ascending trendline converges with horizontal support.
Downside pressure is reinforced by a sharply falling RSI, currently at 38.71, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to run. The 50 SMA has flattened, pointing to market indecision in the near term. A deeper pullback could extend toward $1.2769 or even $1.2720 if $1.2821 fails to hold.
That said, upside risks remain if GBP/USD can clear $1.2955 decisively. A sustained move higher could see the pair test $1.3014 and $1.3060—levels aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent drop.
However, without a clean break above the 50 SMA and Fibonacci cluster, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. Bias favors the downside as long as price stays below $1.2955. Break below $1.2821 opens room for deeper retracement toward $1.2720.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) took a significant hit recently, dropping to 5,396 and reaching an intra-day low of 5,390. This sharp decline was largely driven by the rising tension between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which included a hefty 54% on Chinese products.
In response, China’s Commerce Ministry made it clear that they would take strong countermeasures to defend their interests. This exchange of tariffs has only added to the uncertainty, with worries growing about the future of the global economy.
Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook: Impact of Trade Tensions, Fed Expectations, and Labor Market Data
The global market sentiment has been flashing red, as evidenced by the bearish performance of the S&P 500 and other equity markets.
Trump’s new tariffs have raised concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, with many investors now fearing a possible US recession. This uncertainty has spread across global markets, causing widespread losses.
The S&P 500 has been especially affected, as the trade tensions undermine investor confidence. There’s growing worry that a prolonged trade war could derail recovery efforts in key economies, making it a tough time for markets to stay positive.
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar (USD) has struggled to gain momentum, despite a slight bounce. Traders are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again soon, especially with concerns about the economic slowdown fueled by Trump’s tariffs.
The potential for stagflation—a mix of rising inflation and slow economic growth—is adding to worries. This fear that the US economy could face such a scenario is putting more pressure on the broader equity markets, including the S&P 500, making investors cautious about the future.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its upcoming June meeting, as concerns about the US economy grow.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping rates steady has dropped sharply, from 81.5% last week to just 65.8%. This shift in expectations comes after President Trump’s tariff announcement, which has added more uncertainty and fueled market pessimism.
Economists are looking to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for insights into the health of the labor market.
However, the data likely won't change market expectations unless there is a big shift in hiring or inflation. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, but wage growth is predicted to slow, offering little help to the Fed’s decision-making process.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is extending its corrective decline, slipping 0.86% to trade near 5,396.51 following a rejection below 5,640 resistance and a firm breakdown beneath the 5,494 pivot.
The price action has carved out a clear descending channel, with the index now approaching key support at 5,341.70. A breach below this level would expose the next bearish target at 5,291, reinforcing a negative technical bias in the short term.
Adding to the cautious tone is the RSI, currently hovering at 29.56—deep in oversold territory, but not yet signaling a reversal. The index continues to trade well below the 50-period SMA at 5,675, a level that also aligns with the upper bound of the descending trendline. Any bounce from current levels is likely to face strong resistance at 5,494 and then 5,640.
The broader structure suggests the market remains vulnerable to further downside, particularly if macroeconomic risks persist or if investors react negatively to upcoming job or inflation data. A bearish setup remains valid as long as SPX stays below 5,492, with a downside target at 5,291 and a stop loss at 5,641.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is battling to hold the $3,100 level as traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data.
The yellow metal saw a sharp decline on Thursday, losing over 2.50% before recovering to close 0.65% lower at $3,115. Despite the rebound, gold remains under pressure as investors reassess their positions.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Influence Gold and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to set the tone for gold’s next move. Market forecasts range from 80,000 to 200,000 jobs, with a consensus at 135,000.
The data will be crucial in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments likely to provide further guidance. Markets are now factoring in up to four rate cuts before the end of 2024.
Gold Surge Driven by Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Gold has gained nearly 18% this year, supported by economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of a May rate cut at 33.2%, while June remains the most likely start for easing.
Traders are pricing in three to four cuts this year, fueled by concerns over slowing US economic growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index has dropped to -2.84%, adding to fears of a downturn.
Stagflation Concerns Drive Gold's Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset
On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about stagflation—where economic growth slows while inflation remains high—are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors often turn to gold in uncertain economic conditions, making it a preferred choice during market volatility.
While short-term fluctuations may continue, gold’s long-term movement will largely depend on US economic trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and global geopolitical developments.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trade within a rising channel, showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The current price of $3,103.86 reflects a modest rebound from a key intraday low, finding support just above the pivot point at $3,090.
With price now holding slightly above that level, bulls are attempting to reclaim control, though momentum remains cautious.
Immediate resistance is seen at $3,123, a level that aligns closely with the 50-period EMA at $3,121.96. A decisive break above this zone would expose $3,148 and $3,167, areas that previously capped upward movement.
On the downside, $3,087 and $3,066 represent the next supports, with a sharper decline potentially targeting the channel's lower trendline near $3,054.
The RSI is currently at 45.80, suggesting neutral momentum after a pullback from overbought territory.
This aligns with the recent correction, though the broader structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above the trendline and $3,066 support.
Technically, a buy signal is favored above $3,090, with a suggested take-profit at $3,123 and a protective stop-loss at $3,066.
A close above the $3,123 resistance would likely validate a continuation toward the $3,148–$3,167 zone. Until then, traders should watch for price action clarity near the 50 EMA to confirm trend strength.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to sustain its bullish rally and edged lower around the 1.0965 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which making a rebound after a previous sell-off triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Moreover, traders seem cautious ahead of important economic data, including the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, has bounced back above the 102.00 level after falling to a six-month low near 101.25. This recovery highlights the strength of the USD, despite ongoing economic uncertainties, especially related to the trade war.
Economists predict that the US economy added 135,000 jobs in March, a slight decrease from the 151,000 in February.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.9% year-on-year, a slower pace compared to February's 4% increase.
While the labor market data is not expected to significantly change expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, inflation concerns continue to dominate investor focus.
However, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are increasingly predicting a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, driven by the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has dropped to 65.8%, down from 81.5% a week earlier. This shift has fueled the recent strength of the USD, contributing to the EUR/USD pair’s pullback.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Tariff Concerns and ECB Policy Expectations
On the flip side, the Euro (EUR) is also under pressure, as investors expect Trump’s tariffs to negatively affect the Eurozone’s economic growth.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the consequences of the tariffs would be “dire” for millions of people worldwide, adding that the Eurozone is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with the US fail.
On top of tariff concerns, market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ease its monetary policy further in April have added to the EUR’s decline.
ECB officials believe that inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs is unlikely to persist, clearing the way for continued easing.
Meanwhile, German economic data is fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s economic health. The Federal Statistics Office reported that Germany’s factory orders remained flat in February, following a significant 5.5% decline in January.
This stagnation in Germany’s manufacturing sector suggests a lack of momentum, further weighing on the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is advancing firmly, trading around $1.1062 after clearing the key psychological resistance at $1.1013. This breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, aided by a strong RSI reading of 72.24, which reflects overbought conditions but also sustained demand.
The pair is comfortably positioned above the 50-day SMA at $1.0626, with price action trending well within an ascending channel.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1147, with bulls eyeing extended targets at $1.1220 and $1.1286. On the downside, a break below $1.1013 would shift focus to $1.0943 and $1.0893, while $1.0783 serves as a deeper support level. Despite overbought RSI, the bullish structure remains intact unless $1.1013 is breached to the downside.
As long as EUR/USD holds above its pivot, momentum favors continued upside—particularly if macro data supports the euro or weakens the dollar.
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GOLD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing strong bearish pressure as it tumbles below the key $3,100 level during the U.S. trading session on Thursday.
The precious metal dropped over 1.35%, reaching $3,085 at the time of writing. This sharp decline comes as traders take profits, pushing gold below crucial support levels amid a broader market reaction to President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement.
Trump’s Tariff Plan Fuels Market Uncertainty
As per the latest, Trump's surprising statement about imposing a 10% global base tariff on all imports into the U.S. has added new uncertainty to the financial markets.
These tariffs will be in place along with the existing ones, causing concern among global investors. This has particularly affected Asia, where gold producers saw some initial gains. Additionally, as of Thursday, a 54% tariff is now being applied to Chinese imports, further increasing trade tensions.
Despite the initial rise in gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, global markets are still assessing the full impact of Trump's announcement.
The new tariff plan has raised concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the stocks have dropped sharply, and bond yields are falling as investors move towards safer options like U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies.
Market Reaction to U.S. Economic Data and Fed Expectations
On the other hand, the economic data is also shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in May is standing at 21.5%, with a larger chance of a rate cut in June at 27.5%.
Hence, the pause in the Fed’s rate decisions appears increasingly likely, as traders begin to factor in the potential fallout from the tariff-induced economic slowdown.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has commented that tariffs could be lifted or removed if countries bring their production back to the U.S.
This has added more uncertainty to the situation, as markets are still unsure about the future direction of U.S. trade policy.
Strong Safe-Haven Demand for Gold Amid Market Uncertainty
Despite the recent drop in gold prices, the underlying demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. The broader market uncertainty, coupled with fears of an economic slowdown, has shifted flows into gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against instability.
Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. economic data for further clues, particularly the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the ISM Services PMI.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to consolidate within a rising parallel channel, with price action testing support near the channel’s lower boundary around $3,111.
This level also coincides with the key pivot point, providing a critical juncture for short-term market direction. Price is currently hovering just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $3,128.34—acting as dynamic resistance in the current structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $3,144. A breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, exposing higher resistance targets at $3,148 and $3,167.
Beyond that, the next bullish target stands at $3,184, where the upper boundary of the channel may curb further gains. On the downside, a failure to hold $3,111 would likely invite fresh selling pressure, targeting $3,096 and $3,084 as next support zones.
The RSI is currently at 44.32, signaling weakening momentum after recently retreating from overbought territory.
The bearish divergence between price highs and RSI peaks suggests some fatigue among buyers. Still, the bullish channel remains valid, and traders are closely watching the $3,111 level as a potential re-entry point.
Bullish bias remains intact above $3,111. A long position from $3,111 with a target at $3,144 and stop loss at $3,096 offers a favorable risk-reward.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is seeing a strong rise, moving towards a two-week high of 0.6365. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) experiences a significant sell-off.
This decline in the dollar is driven by growing concerns among traders that the newly introduced tariffs by President Donald Trump could push the US economy into a recession in the near term.
US Dollar Faces Intense Sell-Off
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has experienced a sharp decline, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, dropping more than 2% to near 102.00.
This marks the largest one-day correction in years, highlighting significant weakness in the USD. However, the key factor behind this sell-off is President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported goods to the US, set to take effect on April 5.
On Wednesday, President Trump introduced a reciprocal tariff plan, imposing a 10% baseline levy on all imports, with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% depending on the country.
Market participants are worried that these broad tariffs could drive inflation and negatively impact US economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation.
Hence, this scenario would make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage the economy and could slow down future recovery.
Impact on Australia and China
Therefore, the impact of these tariffs extends beyond US borders, particularly affecting Australia. With the US imposing a 34% increase in tariffs on Chinese products, in addition to a 20% levy already imposed on Chinese goods, Australia’s economy could face further pressures.
This is due to Australia's significant trade relationship with China, with China being one of its largest trading partners. However, the concerns over China’s economic outlook are growing, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
China has already urged the US to reconsider its tariff strategy, warning that countermeasures may be implemented to safeguard its economic interests. This ongoing trade tension between the US and China adds to the uncertainties, especially for countries like Australia that depend heavily on exports to China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair experienced strong downside pressure, falling to a nearly four-week low below the 146.00 mark during the early European session on Thursday.
However, the movement was driven by increased concerns about the global economic outlook, which led to a broader risk aversion in the markets.
As a result, investors sought safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY), which strengthened, while the US Dollar (USD) weakened due to these heightened economic fears.
Global Risk Aversion and US Tariff Announcement Weigh on USD/JPY
However, the slump in the USD/JPY pair can largely be attributed to the heightened global risk aversion following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on imported goods.
These tariffs, which threaten to reshape the global trading system, sparked fears of a potential slowdown in global economic growth.
Therefore, the resulting negative market sentiment boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets, with the Japanese Yen benefiting from this shift.
The JPY soared to a three-week high against the USD during the Asian session, as stock markets around the world plunged in reaction to the tariff news.
Monetary Policy Divergence Drives Demand for JPY Over USD
Another factor contributing to the USD/JPY decline is the growing gap between US and Japanese monetary policies. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon, fueled by concerns over the impact of tariffs on the US economy.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to continue raising rates due to persistent inflation, further narrowing the rate differential and boosting demand for the lower-yielding JPY.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Falling Treasury Yields and Growing Rate Cut Expectations
The broader market is shifting towards currencies that offer lower yields due to increased risk aversion. This has led to a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields, with the yield on the 10-year US government bond falling to around 4.0%, its lowest point this year.
This change in the bond market has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates again.
Investors are now betting on three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year. These expectations are mainly driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy, which has added more bearish pressure on the US dollar.
Therefore, the decline in US Treasury yields and rate cut expectations have weakened the USD, boosting demand for the JPY as a safe-haven asset, which has contributed to downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Moving ahead, investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US economic data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Services PMI. While the latest US ADP report showed that private-sector employers added 155K jobs in March, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the tariff-related concerns.
USDJPY – Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar is rebounding modestly against the Japanese yen after a sharp intraday sell-off that broke decisively below the rising channel structure.
The pair fell from above ¥149, slicing through key support at ¥148.095 and triggering a steep drop toward a local low near ¥146.80. The price now sits just above the buy-entry zone at ¥146.607, where dip buyers may attempt to regain short-term control.
Technical damage has been done with the break below the 50-period SMA at ¥149.457, shifting the short-term bias to bearish.
However, momentum indicators suggest the decline may be overextended. The RSI currently reads 30.60, indicating the pair has reached oversold territory. If ¥146.607 holds, a recovery toward ¥148.655 is possible, in line with the previously tested support-turned-resistance level.
Below ¥146.607, further downside could accelerate toward the stop loss zone at ¥145.654. A break of this level may expose deeper levels at ¥144.979 and ¥144.226.
Conversely, a bullish reversal above ¥148.095 would shift the tone, reopening the path toward the 50-SMA at ¥149.457. Entry above ¥146.607 favors a rebound toward ¥148.655. Stop loss placed at ¥145.654 to manage downside exposure.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD pair faced a notable rally, holding its ground around the 1.2950 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.2950.
However, the British Pound’s strength came primarily from a weaker US Dollar, which helped push the pair higher. However, market sentiment remained cautious ahead of the much-anticipated announcement of a reciprocal tariff plan by US President Donald Trump later in the day.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs Raise Inflation Concerns and GBP/USD Volatility
US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” plan aims to impose tariffs on imports, potentially as high as 20%. This move has raised concerns about its impact on global trade, with fears that it could drive up import prices and worsen inflation.
The market became more cautious as traders worried about escalating trade tensions, especially if the tariffs are higher than expected.
The White House has suggested that tariffs could be adjusted if trading partners open up more to US imports, but this hasn't eased concerns. If these tariffs are applied, US inflation may rise, which could keep the Federal Reserve focused on maintaining higher interest rates.
For the GBP/USD pair, this could lead to more volatility as higher tariffs could push the US dollar up as inflationary pressures mount, making the GBP/USD more sensitive to changes in US economic policies.
UK Economy Faces Pressures from Trump's Trade Policies and Cooling Wage Growth
On the other hand, the UK economy continues to face uncertainties, with concerns exacerbated by Trump’s trade policies.
The UK Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) warned that the potential repercussions of Trump's tariffs could undermine the government's fiscal buffer and shrink the UK economy by as much as 1%.
Moreover, the delay in finalizing an economic deal between the US and the UK has added to the uncertainty, with concerns that the terms of any trade agreement could change following the tariff announcement.
Despite this, cooling wage growth in the UK adds to the pressures on the British currency. Data from Incomes Data Research (IDR) revealed that the median pay increase for the three months to February slowed to 3.5%, the lowest in three years, down from the prior release of 4%.
This decrease in wage growth has fueled expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may take a dovish stance in the near future, potentially further weighing on the GBP.
Therefore, the BoE's dovish outlook, combined with the risk of escalating trade tensions, has contributed to the cautious trading behavior of the Pound.
Investors are uncertain about the implications of Trump's tariff policy on global economic growth, which could ultimately affect the UK's economic performance and trade relations with the US.
US ADP Employment Data Expected to Boost Dollar and Pressure GBP/USD
In addition to geopolitical concerns, Wednesday’s market session will also be focused on the release of the ADP Employment Change data for March, which is expected to show that private employers added 105,000 jobs.
This would represent an increase from the 77,000 jobs added in February, highlighting continued resilience in the US labor market.
Therefore, the ADP Employment Change data, showing an increase in job growth, could strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD as expectations for a more hawkish Fed rise.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is consolidating just above the $1.2909 threshold, testing trendline support while trading slightly below the 50-SMA at $1.2932.
The pair’s structure is largely range-bound, with repeated attempts to break above $1.2972 meeting firm resistance.
Today’s price action remains cautious as traders await fresh macro catalysts. The RSI stands at 48.50, signaling indecision with a slight bearish divergence against recent higher lows in price.
A break and sustained move above the entry trigger at $1.2909 could initiate a recovery toward $1.2966, which marks the top of the recent range and immediate resistance.
The bullish case is supported by a confluence of support levels, including rising trendline support from the March lows and the psychological zone near $1.2874.
However, any failure to hold the $1.2874 level would likely expose $1.2843 and potentially $1.2813, reintroducing a bearish bias in the near term.
The technical bias remains neutral-to-bullish above $1.2909. A breakout above $1.2932 could lift the pair toward $1.2966, while a drop below $1.2874 would negate the setup.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains stable above $3,130 on Wednesday after retreating from a record high of $3,149. However, the precious metal experienced a reversal move in the previous session as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic events.
Another factor that has been supporting the Gold price is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to shift towards gold as a hedge.
Tariff Uncertainty and Employment Data Drive Market Volatility and Gold Price Movements
The global market sentiment has been sluggish as investors closely monitor the White House, with former U.S. President Donald Trump set to announce new reciprocal tariffs. The lack of clarity on the scale and targets of these levies has fueled market speculation, contributing to increased volatility.
Hence, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for Gold, resulting in short-term corrections as market participants adjust positions after the announcement.
On the other hand, traders are also eyeing the ADP private employment report, expected to show a gain of 105,000 jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February. Although the ADP data does not always align with the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, it remains a key indicator of labor market health and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Federal Reserve's Rate Plans and Strong Investor Demand Support Gold Prices
On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans are important for Gold prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 15.8% chance of a rate cut in May, and a 25.6% chance in June. Generally, the higher interest rates can put pressure on Gold prices, but global uncertainties are still pushing up demand for Gold as a safe investment.
Moreover, investor interest in Gold remains strong, as evidenced by record inflows into China’s Huaan Yifu Gold ETF. The fund received 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday, followed by another 1 billion Yuan on Tuesday, reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its broader uptrend, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. After a brief correction that saw prices dip to an intraday low of $3,112.21, the metal has rebounded and is currently trading near $3,125.00.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold sustains above the 50-period EMA at $3,097.88. The recent pullback found support just above the $3,100.00 handle—a level that aligns with both the lower band of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the late-March rally.
The pivot point sits at $3,112.21, a critical zone where buyers have returned repeatedly. Immediate resistance is seen at $3,144.00, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,148.62.
A breakout above this area could open the path toward the next resistance at $3,165.66. On the downside, key support rests at $3,100.07, with additional cushions forming at $3,094.00 and $3,079.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.86, recovering from oversold territory and suggesting renewed bullish momentum, although not yet signaling overbought conditions.
The 50 EMA at $3,097.88 is sloping upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias, while price action remains comfortably above the psychological support at $3,100.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $3,111.00, the risk remains tilted to the upside. Traders may consider long positions above this level with a target at $3,144.00 and a protective stop at $3,094.00. Failure to hold above $3,100.00, however, could trigger a broader correction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has slipped to 1.0809, fueled by increasing concerns about President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone’s fragile economic outlook.
As these factors weigh heavily on the euro, traders are closely monitoring the situation for any new developments that could influence the currency pair’s direction.
Escalating Trade Tensions: EU Faces Potential Tariffs and Economic Impact
President Trump’s longstanding accusations against the EU for unfair trade practices have escalated into potential tariffs on European goods. The EU, already struggling economically, faces the threat of being one of the hardest-hit regions if these tariffs are imposed.
The Trump administration’s stance is based on the perception that the EU does not purchase enough American goods, and these tariffs could further strain an economy already grappling with stagnation.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), recently highlighted that the trade conflict could reduce Eurozone growth by 0.5%, signaling a significant challenge for the region.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the EU would retaliate with countermeasures if necessary, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Slower Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations Pushing the Euro Lower
In addition to the trade tensions, the Eurozone’s economic outlook is growing more pessimistic. Inflation data for March showed core consumer prices rising by just 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, signaling weaker-than-anticipated price pressures.
This slowdown in inflation, compounded by sluggish economic growth, has raised expectations that the ECB may opt to cut interest rates in the near future to stimulate the economy.
Lagarde has indicated that the battle against inflation is nearly over, but the drop in price growth could indicate that the Eurozone’s recovery might take longer than previously expected.
This growing uncertainty is making traders cautious, further pressuring the euro as speculations about ECB actions continue to mount.
US Economic Data and Trade Worries Heighten Market Anxiety
Across the Atlantic, concerns over Trump’s tariffs are also casting a shadow on the US economy. There are fears that these tariffs could disrupt global business investment, especially as companies adjust to the increased costs and uncertainty.
Recent data, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, revealed a contraction in business activity in March, pointing to a slowdown in demand and production.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that the tariffs could disproportionately affect trading partners, raising concerns that the US economy could suffer as well.
With the ADP Employment Change report for March expected to show a significant jump in jobs (105,000 compared to 77,000 in February), investors are eagerly awaiting these figures, which could offer further insight into the US economy’s resilience.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs and the potential slowdown in the US economy could weigh on the US dollar, possibly leading to a weaker dollar and benefiting the EUR/USD pair, driving it higher.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is attempting to stabilize above the $1.0787 mark, a key level near the breakout zone of a descending channel that had previously capped upside momentum throughout March.
Price action is currently consolidating near the 50-period SMA, which sits at $1.0803, acting as dynamic resistance. The RSI has improved modestly to 47.96, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt as it creeps back toward the 50 line.
The pair recently bounced from a low of $1.0740, which held as a critical support area. A confirmed break above the $1.0787 pivot opens the door toward $1.0848—yesterday’s high and the next major resistance.
The short-term structure shows buyers gradually reclaiming lost ground, but sustained bullish momentum requires a clean move above the 50-SMA and break of the recent high.
On the downside, $1.0784 acts as immediate support, followed by the stop-loss buffer at $1.0757 and a more significant support zone at $1.0733. Any breach below these levels would signal weakness and could reignite bearish pressure.
The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish if price sustains above $1.0787. A break higher could expose $1.0848, while failure risks another dip toward $1.0757.
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