EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading hours on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a modest dip, trading near the 1.1350 level.
The pair's decline was primarily driven by the underperformance of the Euro (EUR), as investors await critical economic data from the Eurozone this week, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and the Q1 GDP figures.
Therefore, the results of these reports are expected to significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
EUR/USD Weakness Fueled by Eurozone Economic Data Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has weakened due to expectations around upcoming economic data from the Eurozone.
Analysts predict that the Eurozone's headline HICP inflation will return to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, marking the slowest price growth since October 2024. This follows a 2.2% increase in March.
Moreover, GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of the year.
While moderate inflation and steady growth could suggest a more dovish stance from the ECB, traders are closely watching these figures, as they may increase expectations for an ECB rate cut in June.
In fact, some ECB policymakers are already expressing growing confidence in reducing rates as inflation eases.
However, there is still caution because of risks from global trade tensions, especially between the US and the Eurozone.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot mentioned that while inflation is expected to decrease, the situation is complicated. US trade tariffs could reduce demand and cause prices to rise more slowly.
Impact of US Dollar Strength on GBP/USD Amid Economic Data and Trade Uncertainty
On the other hand, the US Dollar has managed to hold its ground amid mixed developments in global trade relations.
Despite mixed messages from Washington and Beijing, the Dollar remains strong because of overall market confidence. Investors are cautious, but the Dollar still gets support from the broader market outlook.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for later this week, is expected to be a major catalyst for the US Dollar.
Traders are closely watching the labor market figures, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves. Despite the uncertainty in global trade relations, the US economy remains relatively resilient, further supporting the USD’s strength.
Therefore, the US Dollar's strength, supported by positive economic data and market confidence, could pressure the GBP/USD pair, potentially pushing the Pound lower as traders adjust to stronger USD expectations.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is attempting a recovery after defending support at $1.1331. Prices are now pushing against the $1.1362 pivot zone, aided by a modest bullish crossover where the price reclaims the 50-EMA ($1.1362).
A clean hourly close above this level opens the path toward $1.1406, with bulls eyeing the higher range.
Candlestick behavior reveals a series of small-bodied candles followed by a bullish engulfing pattern near the pivot, suggesting strengthening momentum.
The RSI reading at 55.98, slightly above the neutral 50 level, indicates a growing bullish bias without being overbought, offering room for further upside.
There is no visible bearish divergence at this stage, reinforcing the upward momentum. Higher lows from the $1.1316 region further validate the emerging bullish structure.
However, $1.1406 remains a key resistance that needs a decisive break for continuation; failure here could trigger profit-taking.
In a broader context, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle, typically a bullish formation, and a break above the horizontal barrier could spark a measured move towards $1.1442.
Traders should monitor for three white soldiers formation or successive bullish candles confirming the breakout strength.
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