AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in May, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to show resilience.
The AUD/USD pair remains in an upward trend, trading near 0.6389, amid a weaker US Dollar (USD) and mixed US economic data.
AUD/USD Strengthened by Weaker USD and Soft US Economic Data
However, the main driver behind the AUD/USD's upward momentum is the weakness in the US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent mixed US economic data.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book for April revealed signs of a weakening economy, particularly in consumer spending and the labor market, which has started to show signs of softening.
Many US districts reported flat or slightly declining employment levels, which raised concerns about the broader economic outlook.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, trading near 99.60 after registering gains in previous sessions.
The weaker USD, in combination with disappointing data from the S&P Global PMI for April, which showed a slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors, has added downward pressure on the Greenback. These developments have made the USD less attractive, benefiting the Australian Dollar.
Potential RBA Rate Cut Weighs on the AUD, but Economic Resilience Caps Losses
Despite the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut from the RBA at its May 20 meeting, the AUD/USD remains relatively strong. Westpac's forecast of a rate cut comes in response to mixed domestic economic conditions, although recent data suggests continued resilience in the Australian economy.
For instance, Judo Bank’s preliminary data showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, with manufacturing and services both showing growth.
Although the expected rate cut might put some downward pressure on the Australian Dollar, the outlook for the AUD remains supported by Australia's robust economic data compared to the softer US economy.
As traders anticipate further easing from the Fed, with rate cuts possibly extending into the second half of 2023, the AUD continues to hold its ground.
US-China Trade Tensions and Global Sentiment Impacting the AUD/USD
On the flip side, mixed US economic data combined with ongoing US-China trade tensions have made global markets cautious. Although President Trump has shown a willingness to discuss tariffs with China, the trade situation remains uncertain.
This uncertainty has caused market volatility and raised questions about future tariffs. As a result, the US dollar is under pressure, which has given more support to the Australian dollar (AUD).
Looking ahead, despite the potential rate cut by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain supported as long as the US Dollar faces pressure from weaker economic data and global uncertainties.
As markets continue to digest the Fed’s more dovish outlook and the ongoing trade discussions, the Australian Dollar stands to benefit from its relatively stronger economic performance.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilizing after defending the ascending trendline support near 0.6349. The price has bounced off this level multiple times and is attempting to hold above it once again, forming a potential higher low. The bullish setup remains valid if the pair sustains above 0.6349.
The 50-period SMA at 0.6393 still acts as immediate dynamic resistance. A break above this level would clear the way toward the 0.6435 resistance. On the downside, any sustained move below 0.6321 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
The RSI sits at 42.45 — slightly bearish but curling upward, hinting at early recovery momentum. A close above 0.6395 would confirm short-term bullish strength, while failure to reclaim the 50-SMA could lead to range-bound trading.
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