GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) delivered a jaw-dropping rally in Thursday trading, surging nearly 5.00% since Tuesday and hovering around the $3,130 mark. The bullish momentum comes amid escalating US-China trade tensions, renewed safe-haven demand, and shifting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
Gold Gains as US-China Tariff Clash Sparks Safe-Haven Demand
As we mentioned, the yellow metal found strong support after US President Donald Trump announced a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, immediately following Beijing’s move to impose an 84% tariff on all US goods starting Thursday.
Meanwhile, Trump temporarily paused higher tariffs on 56 other countries and the European Union, setting a baseline rate of 10%. These developments have stoked fears of a prolonged economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies, reviving investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Yuan Weakness and Currency Tensions Add to Gold's Appeal
Further supporting gold’s rally, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) devalued the Chinese Yuan (CNY) for the sixth consecutive session, despite warnings from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Markets interpret this as a strategic move by Beijing, echoing past tactics from earlier trade war episodes. The weakening Yuan added to global market volatility, pushing investors toward gold’s relative stability.
Fed Rate Cut Bets and Central Bank Buying Support Gold
On the monetary policy front, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that expectations for a rate cut in May have sharply declined to 19.5%, down from 44.6% earlier this week. However, markets still see a 75.3% chance of easing in June.
Despite recent hawkish Fed commentary, broader investor sentiment continues to lean toward future monetary easing, providing additional support to the non-yielding precious metal.
Gold is also gaining long-term bullish traction as central banks increase bullion holdings amid growing global uncertainties. Historical patterns—such as the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis rally—suggest sustained upside potential as financial assets fail to deliver safe-haven value.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just below $3,120 after a sharp two-day rebound from the $3,002 support zone. Price action has now reclaimed the 50-period SMA at $3,077, signaling a short-term bullish shift.
However, the rally is approaching a key barrier at $3,137—a horizontal resistance level that rejected prices twice last week. If bulls manage to close above this level, the next upside targets lie at $3,168 and $3,199.
On the downside, a pullback toward $3,108 could offer a buying opportunity. Immediate support rests at $3,077, followed by a stronger floor near $3,037. The RSI at 63.8 reflects improving momentum, though nearing overbought territory. Until price breaks above $3,137, we may see some sideways consolidation.
Gold is showing strength above the $3,077 level, but bulls need a decisive break above $3,137 to sustain momentum. Watch for a dip to $3,108 for potential entry.
Related News
- USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair rose to around the 0.6187 level on Thursday, following positive news about renewed trade talks between Australia and the European Union (EU).
The EU announced plans to revisit the stalled negotiations, with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic proposing a new timeline to restart discussions with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell.
Although the previous round of talks collapsed two years ago due to disagreements over agricultural access, these new developments have raised hopes for a resolution, boosting sentiment towards the Australian Dollar.
Weak Australian Data and RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD
Despite the positive news from the EU, the Australian Dollar faces pressure from weak domestic economic data. Consumer confidence took a hit, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling by 6% in April after a 4% rise in March.
Business sentiment also weakened, as the NAB Business Confidence Index dropped to -3 in March, marking its lowest point since November.
This disappointing economic data has bolstered expectations for more dovish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Markets are now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first likely to come in May, followed by further reductions in July and August. This dovish outlook is keeping the Australian Dollar under pressure.
Global Trade Tensions Limit AUD Upside Despite EU Progress
On the global front, the escalating trade tensions continue to limit the AUD's upside potential. US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% has further intensified the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
In retaliation, China increased tariffs on all US imports to 84% and blacklisted six major US companies. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding global trade, particularly between two of Australia’s largest trade partners, is weighing on investor sentiment.
China's latest economic data has also raised concerns about a slowdown. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-over-year in March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%.
These signs of weakening demand in China, Australia's largest trading partner, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy Outlook in Focus
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, hovering around 102.60, as traders await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed concerns about the dual risks of rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
Despite these concerns, policymakers emphasized that future decisions would be based on data. Currently, the market is pricing in only a 40% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In a positive move for global markets, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most US trade partners, easing fears of further trade tensions. This step is seen as helping stabilize the market amid ongoing uncertainties.
Therefore, the US dollar's weakness and President Trump's tariff pause could boost risk sentiment, likely supporting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek higher-yielding assets, driving demand for the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6184 after a strong recovery from last week's low of 0.5930. The pair has climbed back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6159 and is now testing resistance near 0.6213.
A clean break above this level could accelerate gains toward 0.6237, aligning with the descending trendline from the recent high of 0.6388.
However, momentum appears stretched. The RSI stands at 67, just shy of overbought territory, hinting at possible consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6160, followed by 0.6107 and the 50-period moving average at 0.6046. Until bulls confirm a close above 0.6213, upside moves may be limited.
AUD/USD has reclaimed key levels, but a decisive close above 0.6213 is needed to fuel further gains. Watch for RSI cooling or trendline breakout.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged back toward the $3,050 mark during the early European session on Thursday. However, this bullish rally was driven by escalating US-China trade war, which could push the global economy into a recession. This heightened geopolitical uncertainty is fueling demand for safe-haven assets like gold, with investors seeking shelter amid fears of an economic slowdown.
In addition, the growing expectations that US tariffs may trigger a prolonged economic slowdown are boosting bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its rate-cutting cycle, further driving the rally in precious metals.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Bets Boost Gold
Another factor that has been boosting the price of gold is the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar (USD). For the second day in a row, the USD has faced selling pressure as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates soon.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut as early as May, with more cuts expected throughout 2025. This dovish outlook on US monetary policy has helped fuel gold’s upward trend, as the non-yielding precious metal becomes more appealing when interest rates are low.
Even though some Fed officials, like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have expressed concerns about inflation due to tariffs, the market is still focused on the possibility of future rate cuts, weakening the USD and supporting gold.
Escalating US-China Trade Tensions Revive Safe-Haven Demand
On the geopolitical front, the intensifying trade war between the US and China is another major factor pushing gold’s price higher. The White House has confirmed that a 104% tariff on Chinese imports will take effect starting Wednesday, reigniting fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has led to increased risk aversion, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like gold to protect themselves from rising uncertainty.
Therefore, the potential for China to retaliate, including possibly selling US Treasuries, adds further complexity to the outlook for global markets, strengthening the support for gold’s rally.
Investors Eye Fed Minutes, CPI, and PPI Data for Direction
Looking ahead, traders are closely watching upcoming economic data, including the Fed’s minutes from its last meeting, as well as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. These will offer key insights into inflation trends and the Fed’s future policy plans, which could affect both the USD and gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are showing early signs of recovery, trading around $3,023 after finding firm support near the $2,990 region. This level has now been tested multiple times, reinforcing its role as a key pivot.
Buyers have defended this support well, with prices rebounding toward $3,040. Still, the metal remains capped below the 50 EMA, which currently sits at $3,075—a zone that also aligns with horizontal resistance near $3,057.
If gold breaks above this resistance area, the next upside targets are $3,084 and $3,152. Meanwhile, on the downside, $2,990 remains critical. A sustained move below this would expose $2,953 and potentially $2,932 as next supports. The 50-period EMA at $3,075 continues to serve as a dynamic ceiling, suggesting any breakout needs to be confirmed by a close above this zone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48, slightly recovering from oversold conditions, and pointing higher—indicating that buyers may be regaining control in the short term. However, the broader trend remains vulnerable until the price decisively reclaims the $3,075 handle.
From a risk-reward standpoint, traders may consider a long position above $2,990, targeting a break toward $3,057, with a protective stop near $2,953. This setup aligns with trendline support and early bullish momentum.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum and remained well-supported above the 1.2800 mark, reaching an intraday high of 1.2864. The rise was largely driven by easing trade tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon. This positive sentiment helped the pair stay strong as market participants continued to react to the possibility of a more dovish Fed stance.
GBP/USD Rally Supported by Renewed Trade Optimism and US Negotiation Signals
However, the bullish rally in the GBP/USD pair was boosted by renewed optimism after US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate with global trade partners. This signaled a potential easing of ongoing trade tensions. His comments came as US Customs and Border Protection announced plans to start collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners.
Despite maintaining his broader tariff plans, President Trump indicated a willingness to engage in discussions, sparking hopes for a more conciliatory approach to global trade relations.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70 countries, including Japan, had reached out to Washington for talks, further fueling optimism about a potential resolution. This reduction in trade uncertainties has allowed the GBP to gain support, as UK firms stand to benefit from a decrease in US tariffs.
GBP/USD Boosted by US Rate Cut Expectations and Fed's Dovish Outlook
Apart from this, the ongoing expectations about US monetary policy are also contributing to the strengthening of the British Pound. Markets are now predicting a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve as early as May, with a larger cut expected by July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting the Fed to lower rates by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year. This outlook puts pressure on the US Dollar, which in turn helps push the GBP/USD pair higher.
At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that future monetary policy decisions will be based on economic data, fueling speculation that the Fed might adopt a more dovish approach. However, the concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy are growing, and traders believe the Fed may need to change its policy to help support economic growth.
This growing uncertainty around the Fed’s actions is putting additional pressure on the US Dollar, further supporting the rise of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Strength Driven by UK’s Economic Resilience and Shifting Rate Cut Expectations
At the UK front, the country’s relatively low exposure to tariffs, estimated at just 10%, puts it in a better position to handle the impact of global trade tensions compared to other nations. The UK government has also pointed out that the direct effect of tariffs on GDP will be minimal, less than 0.1%. In addition, rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.61%, reflect increasing investor confidence in the UK economy, which further strengthens the British Pound.
Meanwhile, market expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) are also growing. After recent tariff developments, the market now fully expects a rate cut in May, up from 50% previously, and predicts further cuts through 2025. This shift in expectations for both the US and UK central banks is setting up the GBP/USD pair for continued strength in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound is attempting a short-term recovery against the U.S. dollar, but gains remain capped below the $1.2835 resistance. After plunging from the $1.3150 high, GBP/USD has been testing broken support levels as resistance, with the pair currently hovering near the trendline retest zone.
Despite the bounce from $1.2711 support, price action remains fragile as the 50-SMA near $1.2923 reinforces downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.5, showing a modest uptick in momentum, though still beneath the bullish threshold of 50.
This suggests a recovery is underway but lacks strong conviction. A sustained break below $1.2835 could trigger another leg lower toward $1.2707, with a deeper slide targeting $1.2638 and $1.2559.
From a risk-reward perspective, sellers may view this as a favorable zone to reenter, given the clear rejection at trendline resistance. On the upside, only a clean break above $1.2906 would negate the bearish structure and shift momentum toward $1.2983.
Traders watching macro catalysts, including U.S. CPI data this week, should remain cautious. Until then, short setups remain technically favorable below $1.2835, targeting a retest of recent lows near $1.2707, with a stop above $1.2906 to manage risk.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair moved upward, reaching close to the 1.1065 level. This rise happened as the US Dollar (USD) weakened against the Euro (EUR) following the implementation of US President Donald Trump's new tariff policy.
The market is also waiting for more clues about the US economy, with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) official Thomas Barkin. These events have added uncertainty and are keeping traders cautious.
US Tariffs Weigh on Dollar, Boosting EUR/USD Amid Global Trade Concerns
On the US front, a new wave of tariffs came into effect on Wednesday morning, introduced by the Trump administration on imports from 86 countries. These tariffs range between 11% and 84% and apply to a wide variety of products. This move has increased global trade tensions and raised concerns about a possible recession due to Trump's protectionist policies.
As a result, the US Dollar has come under pressure. With the USD weakening, the Euro is gaining strength, which is helping push the EUR/USD pair higher. Investors are becoming more worried about the long-term impact of these tariffs, as they could lead to deeper global trade conflicts and slow down the global economy.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Limit Euro's Upside Despite EUR/USD Gains
On the European side, the rise in the EUR/USD pair is being tempered by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates soon. The ECB's decision is largely driven by concerns that Trump’s tariffs could push the Eurozone into recession.
Investors are now pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB's upcoming policy meeting on April 17, according to Bloomberg data. This sentiment has increased from 70% in previous weeks, reflecting mounting fears of a slowdown in the Eurozone economy.
Despite these concerns, the market is cautious about how much further the EUR/USD can climb, as any rate cut by the ECB might cap the upside for the Euro. The central bank's rate-cutting measures are expected to provide some relief to the economy but could also limit the EUR’s upward momentum.
Traders Eye FOMC Minutes and Fed Comments Amid Trade Tensions and ECB Policies
Looking forward, traders will closely watch the FOMC minutes and any comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to understand the possible direction of US monetary policy.
The market is especially focused on how the Fed might react to rising trade tensions and increasing fears of a recession.
The ongoing global trade conflict, along with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish approach, may continue to put pressure on the US Dollar and support gains in the EUR/USD pair over the next few days. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is holding firm above the $1.1016 breakout zone, with bullish momentum picking up after a period of consolidation. The pair is trading around $1.1054, continuing its upward move after bouncing off trendline and 50-SMA support near $1.0906. This area remains a key inflection point for buyers, as it aligns with the broader ascending trendline visible since early March.
A clear break above $1.1016 has shifted near-term sentiment back in favor of the bulls. The next immediate resistance stands at $1.1147, which also aligns with last week's swing high. A break above that could open the door toward $1.1220 and eventually $1.1293 if upside momentum continues.
On the flip side, $1.1016 now serves as a short-term support level, with a protective cushion at $1.0938. Below that, $1.0906 marks the base of the current bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing at 62, suggesting strong bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. This leaves room for the rally to continue, especially if the pair can sustain above $1.1016 through the upcoming sessions.
The setup remains constructive, favoring long positions above $1.1016 with a take-profit target near $1.1147 and a stop-loss placed at $1.0938. A break below $1.0938 would likely invalidate the current bullish bias and put pressure back on the $1.0906 zone.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged back above the $3,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $3,055 level amid escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations.
However, the renewed strength in gold was driven by a combination of technical recovery and rising global uncertainties, particularly the intensifying trade war between the United States and China.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on Chinese imports, and China has promised to "fight to the end." These tensions are increasing global uncertainty, driving up demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
U.S. Economic Uncertainty and Weakening Dollar Drive Gold's Upward Momentum
Moreover, the upward rally is also tied to the broader market environment, which was uncertain. As stocks in Europe and the U.S. recover, investors are facing challenges in bond markets and changes in U.S. interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the Fed to cut rates in 2025, a sharp shift from last week's neutral outlook.
This uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has also led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. With the possibility of rate cuts increasing, demand for the greenback remains subdued.
This trend has given gold further momentum, as investors seek out safe-haven assets amid a declining dollar and uncertain global economic prospects.
Gold Reserves Increase in West Australia, Supporting Bullish Gold Sentiment
On the supply side, West Australia’s Gold Road Resources has reported an increase in gold reserves at its flagship asset, signaling a promising outlook for future gold production.
The company’s announcement that its open-pit mine may hold more gold than initially estimated has added to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. This comes at a time when global geopolitical and economic uncertainties are pushing the metal’s price higher.
Traders Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts, Boosting Gold Market
Traders are keenly watching the upcoming Fed meetings, with a growing consensus that the central bank may reduce interest rates in the near term. As of Tuesday, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 31.7% chance of a rate cut in the May meeting, while the probability of a rate cut in June is nearly 97%.
These expectations of easier monetary policy are bolstering the gold market, as lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is attempting a recovery, trading at $3,012.81 after finding short-term support just above the $2,990 level. The rebound follows a steep sell-off that pulled the metal from $3,152 highs into the $2,953–$2,989 range, where buyers stepped in.
Price has now reclaimed the $2,990 pivot, flipping near-term bias back toward a cautious bullish stance. With the $3,034 resistance now in focus, a sustained push through this level could invite fresh momentum toward $3,084 and potentially $3,152.
The RSI has edged up to 45.69, reflecting improved, but not yet strong, upside momentum. Price remains below the 50-period SMA at $3,071, suggesting the broader trend remains technically challenged. Traders should monitor whether gold can maintain intraday strength above $2,990. A break back below this key level would open downside exposure toward $2,953 and possibly $2,932.
Until price convincingly clears the $3,034–$3,071 resistance zone, upside should be treated with tactical caution. Momentum remains reactive to news flow, and traders may prefer confirmation via volume or breakout candles above $3,034 before adding new positions.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around below 1.4200 level.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained strength against the US Dollar (USD), largely driven by recent developments in global trade dynamics and rising expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors combined with a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, further pressuring the USD/CAD pair.
Canada Avoids New Tariffs, Providing Support for CAD
However, the factors contributing to the Loonie's outperformance is Canada's ability to avoid new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Last week, Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US, alongside higher duties on some major trading partners.
However, Canada and Mexico were notably spared in this round, with the exception of auto exports, as well as steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariff policies.
This development has offered some much-needed support to the Canadian Dollar, as it remains relatively shielded from the growing global trade war. According to Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, "CAD is outperforming non-USD peers as Canada remains relatively shielded from the new round of tariffs."
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Rising Recession Fears
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is facing downward pressure as investors raise their bets on additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
The latest US tariff impositions have sparked concerns of a potential recession, with markets now pricing in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in May.
Moreover, futures are indicating approximately 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Therefore, the growing expectations for US interest rate cuts put downward pressure on the USD, weakening the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), contributing to the USD/CAD pair's decline.
USD/CAD Outlook: Impact of US Economic Data, Fed Policy, and Global Trade Developments
Looking ahead, the USD/CAD pair's direction will largely depend on developments surrounding the US economy and any potential shifts in Fed policy. With growing recession fears and the likelihood of further rate cuts, the USD may continue to face downward pressure.
On the other hand, the CAD may maintain its strength, aided by Canada's avoidance of new tariffs and its relative immunity to the global trade tensions.
In the coming weeks, traders will closely monitor the impact of these factors on the USD/CAD pair, particularly as US economic data and Fed commentary continue to shape market expectations.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.41636, leaning bearish after failing to break above the $1.42204 resistance level. The pair continues to struggle under a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at $1.42646, both of which cap upside momentum.
Price recently attempted a corrective move, but selling pressure resumed near $1.42200, suggesting bears remain in control. The setup shows potential for a deeper decline, particularly if price breaks and holds below $1.41600.
On the downside, key support is seen at $1.41024—just above the April low. A break beneath this level could open the door to $1.40308 and potentially $1.39619 in extension.
The RSI at 41.16 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum is soft and still favors sellers. If price fails to reclaim $1.42204 and stays below the 50 SMA, a bearish continuation becomes increasingly likely.
Traders will want to see a sustained move under $1.41600 to confirm the breakout, ideally on increased volume and without immediate rejection. Until then, short-term price action remains vulnerable to minor retracements.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining bullish around 0.6047 after briefly recovering to 0.6128 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Australian Dollar (AUD), driven by increasing concerns about a potential recession in the United States.
These worries are amplified by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which are adding to market uncertainty and weighing on investor sentiment.
Impact of US-China Trade War on Australia's Economy and the Australian Dollar
However, the ongoing US-China trade war is having a significant impact on market sentiment. Last Friday, China announced a large 34% counter-tariff on US goods, which will take effect this Thursday, as a response to President Trump’s tariffs.
This rise in trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world is expected to harm global trade, with Australia being particularly affected since China is its largest trading partner.
As China reacts to the situation, there are growing concerns that Australia’s economy will suffer the most from these trade disputes, leading to further pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.
US Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on the US Dollar and AUD
On the other hand, speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has added to the uncertainty. Following the mounting trade tensions, traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will implement aggressive interest rate cuts to counteract the economic repercussions.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a nearly 65% chance of a rate cut in May, with futures pointing to a total of 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December.
This expectation of looser US monetary policy could undermine the value of the US Dollar to some extent, but the broader risk-off sentiment due to trade uncertainties may prevent the AUD from gaining any strong traction.
Reserve Bank of Australia's Easing Policy and Its Impact on the Australian Dollar
On the Australian front, the outlook is similarly clouded. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to follow suit with the global trend of interest rate cuts. The RBA is set to meet in May, and analysts expect a 25 basis points rate cut, with the possibility of a larger 50 basis points reduction.
This growing speculation surrounding the RBA’s easing policy is contributing to the weakening of the AUD against the USD.
The Aussie Dollar remains vulnerable as markets anticipate further rate cuts from the central bank to bolster the struggling Australian economy, which could further widen the interest rate differential between Australia and the US.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.60591, showing early signs of recovery after last week’s steep drop. The pair briefly tested support around $0.59300 before bouncing back above the $0.60376 level, which now serves as a critical short-term pivot.
The bounce coincides with mild bullish divergence on the RSI (currently at 42.27), suggesting a tentative return in buyer interest. However, the broader structure remains fragile. The 50 EMA at $0.62230 continues to slope downward, capping any strong bullish momentum.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the pair is struggling near the 23.6% retracement at $0.60388. A break above $0.61068—the 38.2% retracement—would bolster bullish sentiment and expose higher resistance at $0.61598 and $0.62138.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.59821, followed by $0.59307. A breach below those levels could send AUD/USD to test deeper lows near $0.58792.
Traders will want to see a sustained move above $0.61068 to confirm follow-through buying. Until then, any upside moves should be viewed cautiously and within the context of a broader bearish trend.
The RSI still hovers below the midline, while the EMA structure favors bears, leaving the recovery in question unless momentum improves decisively above $0.61385.
The risk-reward favors short-term longs above $0.60376, but upside targets should remain conservative unless we see a daily close above $0.61598.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have struggled to maintain their upward momentum, recently dropping to the 2,972 level. Despite a brief rebound, the precious metal is currently trading with modest losses as the European session begins.
This decline is driven by persistent concerns over a potential global recession and escalating geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on investor sentiment, limiting gold’s ability to gain traction.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Supports Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has started the week on a weaker note, fueled by expectations that a tariffs-driven slowdown in the US economy could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume rate cuts soon. This, along with a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields, has provided support to gold.
Despite a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, investors are pricing in multiple rate cuts this year.
As a result, the USD has struggled to attract buyers, while gold has seen a brief recovery from its recent lows.
However, gold's recovery lacks momentum, as investors remain cautious, unwinding bullish positions to cover losses from a broader market sell-off.
This caution stems from fears that the recent pullback in gold, after reaching all-time highs last week, may not be over yet.
Geopolitical Risks and the Global Trade War Weigh on Investor Sentiment
On the geopolitical front, the widening global trade war has raised concerns about a potential global economic recession, leading to an extended sell-off in equity markets.
This risk-off sentiment caused traders to liquidate long positions in gold, seeking liquidity to cover losses elsewhere. Geopolitical tensions have continued to rise, particularly with the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on all imported goods, with 54% tariffs specifically on China, has raised fears of a long trade war. In response, China imposed additional tariffs on US goods, escalating the conflict.
These ongoing trade tensions have created more uncertainty, boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reveals that China increased its gold reserves for the fifth month in a row in March, signaling concerns about the economic impact of rising geopolitical risks.
China’s gold holdings grew by 0.09 million troy ounces, highlighting the growing importance of gold as a safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are under pressure following a decisive breakdown below both the ascending trendline and the $3,046 horizontal support, which previously acted as a pivot area for bulls. After slipping as low as $3,003, buyers briefly stepped in near the 200-period EMA, but the rebound lacked conviction.
Price is currently pinned under the $3,046 resistance zone and struggling to reclaim ground above $3,062. This resistance band, once supportive, now acts as a ceiling for any meaningful recovery. The technical landscape has turned bearish unless gold reclaims and closes above the $3,062 level.
The broader market structure also reflects caution, as the 50 EMA at $3,101.72 is now sloping downward, providing additional headwind. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 39.81, suggesting bearish momentum is in play but not yet stretched enough to imply oversold conditions.
A break below the $3,013 handle would signal renewed selling pressure, opening the path toward the psychological support at $3,000 and possibly extending to $2,970, the next major horizontal demand zone.
Bulls would need to regain control above $3,062 to neutralize the bearish bias and make a case for a push toward the 50 EMA and $3,087. Until that happens, any upside moves are likely to be viewed as relief rallies rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair gained bullish traction and edged higher, trading above the 1.1050 level.
However, the reason for its upward trend could be attributed to the overall weakness in the US dollar, as well as improving market sentiment in the Eurozone.
Investors are reacting to mixed economic data from both regions, but the recent optimism around the European economy is giving the euro some support.
At the same time, uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path is putting pressure on the dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to climb gradually.
Eurozone Retail Sales Growth and Germany's Industrial Sector Struggles Impact Euro Sentiment
On the data front, Eurozone retail sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in February, outpacing market expectations of 1.8%.
However, retail sales showed slower-than-expected growth on a monthly basis, with a mere 0.3% increase compared to the expected 0.5%.
These figures highlight some resilience in consumer demand but also point to some potential weakness in the broader economic recovery.
Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial sector has taken a step back. The industrial production in Europe's largest economy contracted by 1.3% in February, marking a sharp contrast to the 2% rebound in January.
In the meantime, the year-on-year industrial output plunged 4%, further indicating the ongoing struggles in the industrial sector.
Although Germany’s trade balance for February showed a slight improvement, coming in at EUR 17.7 billion, it fell short of market expectations, contributing to the cautious sentiment surrounding the Euro.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Recession Fears and Rate Cut Expectations
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US dollar continues to face headwinds amid growing concerns of an impending recession. Despite a slight recovery, the USD struggles to capitalize on the momentum and starts the week weaker.
However, the key factor weighing on the dollar is the increasing probability that the US economy might enter a recession, which could force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle.
The markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, which has led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, further undermining the greenback.
US-EU Trade Tensions Weigh on EUR/USD Outlook Amid Economic Data Focus
Another factor that has been impacting the EUR/USD pair is the growing risk of a trade war between the US and the European Union. The EU is planning to introduce retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to US duties on steel, aluminum, and cars.
These trade tensions are adding more uncertainty to global markets. While this could increase demand for the safe-haven US dollar, it may also limit the euro’s ability to rise further.
Looking ahead, traders will be watching economic data from the Eurozone, such as German industrial production, trade balance, and the Sentix Investor Confidence report.
However, the main factor likely to drive the EUR/USD pair in the near term will be how global trade tensions unfold, as any escalation could quickly shift market sentiment and affect both currencies.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is attempting to reclaim upside momentum against the U.S. dollar following a healthy pullback from $1.10484. Price action remains supported by a firm uptrend structure, with a rising trendline dating back to mid-March and the 50 EMA at $1.08619 now acting as dynamic support.
After rebounding off the $1.09519 level—a key horizontal and psychological zone—EUR/USD is showing renewed buying interest as it tests the pivot area near $1.1000. The recovery has paused just shy of immediate resistance at $1.10484, and a clean breakout above this zone would clear the path toward $1.11480 and $1.12208.
RSI is currently at 59.40 and turning higher, suggesting building momentum without being overbought. The pair remains technically constructive as long as price stays above the 50 EMA and ascending trendline. A break below $1.09519 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias, exposing downside risk toward $1.08617 and $1.07512.
Overall, the recent dip appears corrective, and the bullish trend remains intact unless key support levels fail. If bulls manage to secure a decisive close above $1.10484, continuation toward $1.11511 becomes increasingly probable, with higher resistance zones within reach.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025