USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
USD/CAD has climbed decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, crossing the $1.4320 level and reclaiming ground above its 50-period SMA ($1.43219).
The move suggests a bullish reversal is gaining traction, with risk-off sentiment acting as a tailwind for the U.S. dollar.
Traders appear increasingly defensive ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement on Wednesday.
The president confirmed the plan will target all countries, intensifying concerns of a broader trade conflict. This uncertainty continues to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), particularly given Canada’s heavy export reliance on the U.S.
CAD Faces Headwinds Despite Oil Support
The Loonie remains under pressure after Trump reiterated his administration’s plans to enforce a 25% tariff on auto imports. Given that nearly 75% of Canadian exports are U.S.-bound—primarily oil and autos—this development poses significant downside risk. However, rising crude oil prices may offer some near-term support for the CAD.
As Canada is the largest oil supplier to the U.S., an uptick in crude often lends strength to its currency. Nonetheless, the overall backdrop remains fragile, with sentiment driven by U.S. policy unpredictability and global trade realignments.
Supportive Factors for CAD:
Brent and WTI prices remain elevated amid OPEC+ monitoring.
Oil remains Canada's key export; gains here cushion downside.
Friday’s jobs report could offset tariff impact if strong.
Traders Focus on Packed Canadian Data Week
The Canadian calendar is packed with high-impact events this week that could steer the USD/CAD pair.
Key Upcoming Events:
Tuesday, April 1 – Manufacturing PMI: Previous reading: 47.8
Thursday, April 3 – Trade Balance: Forecast: C$3.4B (vs. C$4.0B prior)
Friday, April 4 – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 10.4K jobs, 6.7% unemployment (vs. 1.1K and 6.6% prior)
With the job market data and trade balance numbers in focus, the Loonie's direction hinges on whether economic strength can counteract external trade risks.
A better-than-expected jobs report could slow USD/CAD’s bullish momentum—but if Canadian data disappoints, the pair may target the $1.44 zone next.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the Official Cash Rate at 4.10% during its April policy meeting—an outcome widely expected by markets.
In the post-meeting statement, the RBA struck a cautious tone, emphasizing ongoing concerns about the persistence of inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The central bank acknowledged that recent U.S. tariff rhetoric is weighing on global business confidence and contributing to an increasingly uncertain trade environment.
Governor Michele Bullock reinforced the board’s cautious stance, noting that policymakers are not yet prepared to discuss rate cuts. “We have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy,” she said, confirming that no firm decisions were made regarding a May move. The RBA’s wait-and-see approach comes as inflation data remains sticky, and global risk sentiment stays fragile.
China Data and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Shape Sentiment
While the RBA decision offered short-term support for the Aussie, global trade risks continue to act as a limiting factor.
Market participants remain wary ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, which he confirmed would apply to all countries—not just key trading partners.
Such policies could dampen risk sentiment and, by extension, weigh on the AUD, given its sensitivity to global trade flows.
On a more supportive note, economic data from China—Australia’s largest trading partner—surprised to the upside.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March, while the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs also posted solid gains, offering signs of stabilization in China’s economic activity.
This data provided a modest tailwind for the Aussie, signaling potential demand strength in regional trade.
Mixed Domestic Data Keeps RBA Cautious
Domestically, February retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% gain and down from January’s 0.3% increase.
While not alarming, the miss underscores tepid consumer momentum, which could keep the RBA on the sidelines in the near term.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data later today for further direction in AUD/USD.
Until then, the Aussie remains supported near term, but upside potential could remain capped by global uncertainty.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar remains under sustained selling pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downside drift below the 50-period simple moving average and clinging to the lower bounds of a descending trend channel.
After failing to sustain gains above the $0.6290 region, price broke below the key $0.6289 SMA and is now positioned precariously near short-term support at $0.6250. The inability to retake the upper trendline or the moving average reflects persistent bearish sentiment.
The recent rejection from the $0.6330 resistance—coupled with the channel breakdown—points to an increasing probability of continuation toward the next key horizontal support at $0.6217.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the RSI is hovering at 41.30, below the midline and signaling weak upside momentum, while the price remains capped under a firm downtrend line that has held since March 19.
A confirmed breach below $0.6250 could accelerate losses toward the $0.6218 and $0.6188 support levels. Meanwhile, resistance continues to stack at $0.6291 and $0.6330, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived unless the pair closes decisively above the falling trendline and 50-SMA.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices extended their meteoric rise on Tuesday, hitting a fresh record above $3,100 per ounce. The move comes ahead of the April 2 unveiling of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which traders expect to impact global trade flows and risk sentiment.
The surge in gold is also supported by broader macro drivers: softening U.S. growth data, geopolitical instability, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. CME FedWatch now prices in 63 basis points of cuts by year-end, adding further momentum to bullion.
Fundamentals Support Gold’s Bullish Outlook
Gold’s rally is underpinned by more than short-term policy speculation. The metal posted its strongest quarterly performance since 1986, fueled by:
Sustained central bank gold purchases, especially from emerging markets
Rebounding demand for gold-backed ETFs
Geopolitical risks spanning both Europe and the Middle East
A weakening U.S. dollar and stabilizing Treasury yields
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the April 2 tariff event may be just the beginning: “Automobile tariffs on April 3 could extend uncertainty further. Unless macro conditions improve significantly, gold buyers are likely to remain active on any pullbacks.”
With global growth concerns still unresolved, investor appetite for gold appears resilient.
What’s Next: $3,200 in Sight?
Gold's next technical target lies near $3,200, a level many traders are eyeing if current momentum holds. On the downside, support lies near the previous breakout zone around $3,085.
Upcoming U.S. economic releases could prove pivotal. Tuesday's job openings data and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report may either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt. Any surprises could spark short-term volatility across commodities and FX markets.
Until then, the bullish case for gold remains intact—backed by macro risk, monetary policy shifts, and continued investor demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices remain firmly bid, holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has underpinned the bullish trend since March 25.
The metal continues to find strong dip-buying interest, with the recent pullback stalling above the $3,127 pivot point—coinciding with the lower boundary of the bullish channel and offering technical validation for near-term support.
Despite a minor correction from intraday highs around $3,148, gold bulls appear to be defending the structure, and the broader uptrend remains intact barring a breakdown below $3,110.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 58.93 from overbought territory, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at $3,106.56 continues to track closely below price, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend and providing dynamic support.
A confirmed move above $3,148 could open the door toward $3,165 and potentially challenge the $3,185 level, where previous supply zones could re-emerge.
Conversely, a break below $3,127 may signal further profit-taking, exposing $3,110 and $3,099 as next downside targets.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro (EUR) rebounded strongly, with EUR/USD rising to near 1.0820 during North American trading hours. The recovery follows reports that the European Commission (EC) is preparing trade concessions to ease tensions with the United States, ahead of a formal tariff announcement by President Donald Trump scheduled for Wednesday.
According to Bloomberg, the European Union is working to identify concessions it is willing to offer in exchange for partial removal or delay of U.S. tariffs—particularly the 25% levy on foreign automobiles set to take effect on April 2.
This diplomatic overture could help de-escalate fears of a full-scale Eurozone-U.S. trade war, especially for export-heavy sectors like German automakers. Germany sends roughly 13% of its auto exports to the U.S., and the proposed tariffs could seriously dent their global competitiveness.
“We regret the 25% auto tariffs and the new measures coming on April 2, but we are preparing for all of these,” said EC spokesperson Olof Gill. He described Europe’s potential response as “timely, robust, and well-calibrated.”
Officials Warn of Global Fallout from Auto Tariffs
The backlash from Europe has been swift. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the tariff policy, calling it a “lose-lose situation” that undermines global prosperity. Echoing that view, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact of tariffs may be temporary, the damage to growth could be long-lasting.
“The worst outcome is a vicious circle of tariffs and retaliation,” de Guindos said, adding that trade disruptions are “extremely detrimental” to Eurozone growth.
His comments come amid growing monetary policy uncertainty. De Guindos said it was “very difficult to say” what the ECB might decide in April, citing fluid economic conditions.
Mixed Economic Data from Eurozone
Further complicating the outlook, preliminary March inflation figures from France and Spain disappointed:
France CPI (EU Norm): +0.9% YoY (vs. 1.1% est.)
Spain HICP: +2.2% YoY (down from 2.9%)
The weaker-than-expected inflation data could give the ECB more flexibility, but also reinforces concerns about stagnating demand within the Eurozone.
U.S. PCE Data Boosts Fed Dilemma
Across the Atlantic, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% YoY in February, above the 2.7% forecast and January’s 2.6% print. On a monthly basis, core PCE climbed 0.4%, also exceeding expectations.
Despite the upside surprise, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped toward 104.00, as traders adjusted positions ahead of potential Fed rate commentary.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged that tariffs are “likely to increase inflation in the near term,” though she sees the rise as potentially short-lived. Still, she advocated for “active patience,” suggesting the Fed will likely hold rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range for an extended period.
EUR/USD Outlook: All Eyes on April 2 and Fed Guidance
As markets brace for Trump’s formal auto tariff announcement on Wednesday, volatility is expected to remain elevated. If the EU’s proposed concessions gain traction, EUR/USD could build on its recovery. However, failure to secure a diplomatic resolution—especially with tariffs hitting major Eurozone exports—could quickly reverse gains.
Simultaneously, traders will continue parsing U.S. inflation data and Fed signals, with rate expectations playing a pivotal role in shaping currency direction through Q2.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro is showing signs of a trend reversal after a decisive breakout above the descending channel that had constrained price action since mid-March.
Trading at $1.08217, EUR/USD has cleared the key pivot level of $1.08120, signaling renewed bullish interest and a potential shift in short-term market sentiment.
The move comes after a sharp rebound from the $1.07585 level, backed by a breakout above the 50-period SMA ($1.07913), now acting as dynamic support.
The recent rally is technically significant, as it follows weeks of downward momentum and coincides with a strong RSI rebound.
The Relative Strength Index currently reads 61.78, pointing to growing bullish momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
Traders are eyeing a move toward the next resistance levels at $1.08544 and $1.08849, with extended upside potential toward $1.09177.
The setup favors a continuation higher, particularly if EUR/USD holds above the $1.08120 pivot. A failure to maintain this breakout level could lead to a retest of $1.07585 and, if breached, expose support at $1.07214 and $1.06780.
For now, however, the price structure favors buying dips, with the breakout confirmed by both price action and momentum.
A favorable risk-reward setup is evident for long positions entered above $1.08120, targeting $1.08849, with a stop loss below $1.07585.
The shift in structure and the break above the channel suggest further gains are likely, barring any major macro-driven dollar strength.
EUR/USD has confirmed a bullish breakout above $1.08120. The trend favors upside toward $1.08849, while $1.07585 remains key support to protect the bias.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 30, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $3,086 per ounce in early Monday trading in Asia, fueled by mounting geopolitical uncertainty and growing confidence in a dovish Federal Reserve. The move builds on last week’s momentum, with spot gold decisively breaking through $3,070 resistance, and now setting its sights on the next key target at $3,105.
The latest leg of the rally came in response to Friday’s PCE Price Index, which rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly ahead of the 0.3% forecast.
While the inflation reading was marginally hotter, analysts say it’s unlikely to shift the Fed’s current trajectory. Markets are now pricing in roughly 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut potentially arriving as early as July.
“Safe-haven demand tied to trade uncertainty and macro risks continues to support gold,” said Peter Grant of Zaner Metals, noting that softening global growth signals are reinforcing the metal’s upward bias.
Traders Brace for High-Impact U.S. Data
This week’s macro calendar is packed with key data releases that could shape the Fed’s rate path—and by extension, gold’s trajectory. Investors will be watching closely for signs of economic softening or labor market weakness, which could strengthen the case for rate cuts and deepen demand for safe-haven assets.
Key U.S. Events to Watch This Week:
Tuesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Est. 49.6)
JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday:
ADP Non-Farm Employment (Est. 118K)
Thursday:
Weekly Unemployment Claims
ISM Services PMI
Friday:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Est. 139K)
Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.1%)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Outlook: Bullish Bias Remains Intact
While inflation remains sticky, slowing economic momentum and geopolitical tensions are tipping investor sentiment toward risk aversion. With gold already breaking to new highs, a soft jobs report or disappointing manufacturing data this week could accelerate the rally toward $3,105 and beyond.
The Fed’s policy tone remains the linchpin. Should upcoming data support a July rate cut narrative, gold’s bullish run may still have room to extend—especially with real yields edging lower and central banks continuing to accumulate gold reserves.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to extend its bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD trading at $3,085.34 after breaking above the short-term pivot at $3,077.
The move confirms bullish continuation within a well-established ascending channel, as buyers maintain control despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
The recent breakout is supported by favorable momentum and strong trend structure, reinforcing the case for additional upside toward $3,105 and potentially $3,118.82.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently at $3,037.63, has provided consistent dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 66.95, suggesting momentum remains healthy without tipping into extreme overbought territory.
A potential trade setup emerges with a buy entry above $3,077, targeting $3,105 as the primary resistance, with a stop loss set at $3,065. This configuration offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.3.
As long as the price holds above $3,070, the bias remains firmly bullish. However, any drop below the $3,065 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $3,055 and possibly $3,037.
This technical structure continues to favor the bulls, supported by rising moving averages, solid channel support, and a well-behaved RSI.
Traders should monitor price action closely near the $3,105 resistance, as a break above this level could open the door to fresh highs toward $3,118.82.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The British Pound (GBP) is holding firm against the U.S. Dollar (USD), hovering under 1.2950 despite mounting global uncertainty and a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades under 1.2950, virtually flat on the day as traders parse a mix of macro data and geopolitical developments.
The market is currently digesting February’s PCE Price Index, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The headline print held steady at 2.5% YoY, while the core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 2.8%—slightly above January’s 2.7% and market expectations.
The inflation data adds complexity to the Fed’s rate outlook, especially as price growth continues to drift above the 2% target. However, deteriorating sentiment from U.S. consumers may temper expectations of near-term policy tightening.
Consumer Sentiment Slides as Inflation Expectations Rise
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.0 from the preliminary reading of 57.9, reflecting growing pessimism among U.S. households. Short-term inflation expectations jumped to 5%, while five-year projections edged up to 4.1%—fueling concerns about sticky inflation.
“This month’s decline reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations,” the report stated, underscoring the broad-based anxiety across the U.S. economy.
UK Macro Data Surprises to the Upside
On the UK side, economic data offered a more positive tone. While February Retail Sales declined compared to January, the 1.0% MoM increase came in well above economist expectations of a 0.3% decline.
Additionally, the UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, meeting forecasts from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This upbeat data helped push GBP/USD to an intraday high of 1.2967, although the pair later pared gains as investors absorbed the stronger U.S. inflation readings.
Conclusion
Despite pressure from U.S. inflation data and trade uncertainty, GBP/USD remains resilient—underpinned by solid UK data and fading Fed rate hike expectations. However, the path forward will be shaped by how markets react to Trump’s tariff policy, labor market reports, and the evolving macro landscape.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound is once again testing the lower end of a narrow consolidation zone as GBP/USD slips to $1.29331.
Price action remains range-bound below the descending trendline extending from the March high, with bearish pressure mounting as the pair struggles to reclaim the $1.29582 resistance.
The pair is now hovering just above a key pivot zone at $1.29187—an area that, if broken, could shift momentum firmly in favor of the bears.
The setup favors a short position below $1.29187, targeting $1.28670 as the next support, with a protective stop placed at $1.29582.
This configuration offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2, ideal for short-term positioning in a market that remains technically indecisive.
RSI currently reads 48.36—below the neutral midpoint—indicating fading bullish momentum and the potential for a deeper pullback if price closes below support.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average sits at $1.29286 and is now flatlining, suggesting a loss of directional bias.
However, a break below the moving average and horizontal support could open the door to further downside toward $1.28300.
Meanwhile, bulls would need to clear $1.29704 to invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum higher toward $1.30143.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index has been facing challenges lately, dropping to an intra-day low of 5,670. This decline is due to concerns about various macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.
In the meantime, the uncertainty around US policy, the impact of increasing tariffs, and global trade disruptions are weighing on the market. Moreover, investors are worried about potential credit rating downgrades as rising government deficits and economic instability could lead to more risks for market stability.
US Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment
It should be noted that the announcement of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump on imported cars and light trucks has significantly impacted investor sentiment.
These new tariffs, along with Trump's planned reciprocal tariff announcements next week, have fueled fears of a trade war, further intensifying global economic uncertainty. This has resulted in a more cautious approach from investors, contributing to a decline in the S&P 500.
On the other hand, Moody's has warned that the combination of tax cuts and higher tariffs could widen the US government’s deficits, making a potential downgrade of the US debt rating more likely. This has raised alarms among investors, adding to the market's negative sentiment.
In the meantime, the S&P Global also warned that policy uncertainty in the US could hinder global economic growth, especially in emerging markets, while Fitch Ratings noted that smaller economies like Brazil, India, and Vietnam would be particularly vulnerable to these trade disruptions.
Therefore, the warnings from Moody’s, S&P Global, and Fitch Ratings about rising deficits, trade disruptions, and policy uncertainty heighten market concerns, leading to increased volatility and further pressure on the S&P 500 index.
Rising Treasury Yields and Economic Concerns
Another major factor affecting the S&P 500's performance is the rise in Treasury yields. As of the latest data, the 2-year US Treasury yield stood at 3.99%, and the 10-year yield was at 4.35%.
These higher yields suggest growing investor concerns about inflation and future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Hence, the stronger US Dollar, supported by the higher yields, has also added downward pressure on the S&P 500.
US GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations Amid Escalating Global Trade Disruptions, Keeping S&P 500 Under Pressure
Despite the challenging outlook, the latest data on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2024 revealed a growth rate of 2.4%, surpassing expectations of 2.3%.
This positive GDP growth has led investors to look closely at upcoming economic indicators, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due for release soon.
Meanwhile, global trade disruptions are escalating, with China’s push to strengthen its aluminum industry by 2027 and recent tariff threats from the US on copper imports adding further complexity to the market landscape.
Therefore, the stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 2.4% provides a positive outlook, but escalating global trade disruptions, including China's aluminum push and US tariff threats, add uncertainty, keeping the S&P 500 under pressure.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading at 5693.32, up 0.05%, continuing its slow grind higher as equity markets digest macroeconomic cues. The index remains above its key pivot point at 5673.60, supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 5660.75.
This alignment signals continued bullish momentum in the short term, with traders maintaining confidence in the broader trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at 5784.91. A sustained break above this level could open the door to further upside toward 5865.56 and potentially 5968.80.
The overall price structure remains bullish, with the index trading within an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe. While the relative strength index (RSI) hints at slightly overbought conditions, there is no immediate sign of reversal.
On the downside, support is found at 5606.24. A breach below this level may prompt a corrective pullback toward 5506.10, followed by deeper support near 5407.38.
However, unless price slips below the pivot and loses the EMA support, pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.
For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A buy-on-dip strategy above 5670 remains favorable, with a target near 5842 and a stop-loss at 5587 for risk-managed positioning.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's European trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to near the 1.0764 level, facing strong bearish pressure as trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU) escalated.
This sharp decline in the major currency pair comes ahead of the anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on April 2, which will impose reciprocal tariffs.
US Tariff Announcement Weighs on Market Sentiment
The US administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports is a key driver behind the recent decline in EUR/USD. The tariffs, which will take effect on April 2, are expected to create turmoil in the global auto industry, with major impacts on both the US and European economies.
US imports of cars from Germany, which make up a large part of Germany's car exports, will get more expensive. This will make them less competitive in the global market. The news has caused a drop in the stock prices of car companies, adding to the overall negative market mood.
As a result, US Federal Reserve officials are worried that Trump's tariff plan could lead to higher inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the tariffs would raise inflation in the short term but could be temporary.
She also pointed out that the Fed should stay flexible with its policies, suggesting that keeping interest rates the same might be a good choice given these economic challenges.
Impact of US Tariff Plans on the Eurozone Economy and Trade Relations
On the other side, as the US tariff plans ramp up, the European Commission (EC) is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products. This growing trade tension is creating more uncertainty for the Euro. German car manufacturers, who rely heavily on exports to the US, are especially worried.
The proposed tariffs could significantly hurt their ability to compete in the US market, impacting the Eurozone’s overall economic growth.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized the US for its protectionist approach, warning that these tariffs would create a lose-lose scenario for both sides.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has also raised concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact might be temporary, the tariffs could have long-lasting effects on economic growth in the Eurozone.
Slower Inflation Data in France and Spain Offers Temporary Relief for the Euro Amid Trade Concerns
On the economic front, the latest inflation data from France and Spain has shown slower-than-expected price pressures, providing some temporary relief for the Euro. France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.1%.
Similarly, Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a slowdown in inflation, rising 2.2% compared to 2.9% in the prior period.
However, the softer inflation numbers are unlikely to prevent the continued decline of the Euro, as the broader trade and tariff concerns overshadow the inflation data.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07870, down 0.01% as the euro struggles to regain footing amid mixed technical signals and cautious market sentiment.
Price action remains below the pivot point at $1.08058, indicating a short-term bearish bias while the pair hovers just under the 50-period EMA at $1.07942.
The technical outlook suggests that euro bears are maintaining control for now, as the pair continues to drift within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate support is noted at $1.07656, a level that previously provided a short-term bounce. A sustained break below this could expose deeper support levels at $1.07214 and $1.06790.
On the upside, resistance stands at $1.08544, followed by $1.08841 and $1.09177—key areas that bulls would need to overcome to shift sentiment meaningfully.
Momentum indicators remain subdued, and without a catalyst to propel the euro above its pivot, sellers may continue to dominate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, giving neither side a definitive edge, but the broader structure favors downside as long as EUR/USD remains capped below the $1.08058 threshold.
From a tactical standpoint, a short position below $1.08052 may offer a favorable setup, with targets at $1.07406 and a stop placed near $1.08364.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its bullish momentum for the second consecutive day, surging to a fresh all-time high around the $3,085 region.
However, the ongoing trade war concerns, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of auto tariffs, have fueled market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven metal.
Moreover, the ongoing expectations that Trump's aggressive trade policies could slow US economic growth and push the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards renewed rate cuts have further supported Gold’s upward trend.
Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the non-yielding yellow metal continued to attract strong demand as market participants brace for upcoming US economic data.
US Tariffs and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold
On Wednesday, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 3.
This move, coupled with existing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, has intensified fears of a broader global trade war.
Investors remain on edge ahead of next week’s anticipated reciprocal tariffs, further lifting Gold to new record highs.
Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its June policy meeting due to concerns over trade-driven economic deceleration.
The resilience of Gold prices, despite strong US macroeconomic data and mostly hawkish Fed comments, underscores the growing safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks.
Stronger US Data Fails to Deter Gold’s Rally
Despite a strong US economic backdrop, Gold prices have continued their upward trend. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 2.4%, exceeding expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 224K, reinforcing the strength of the US labor market.
Fed officials are being careful about future changes to policy. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the current approach is suitable because the economy is uncertain.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins also warned that Trump's trade policies could increase inflation, but it's unclear how much.
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Investors will closely analyze the data to assess potential rate-cut trajectories, which could further influence USD dynamics and provide fresh momentum for Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Friday, trading at $3,081.94 with a 0.27% gain on the day. The metal is showing continued strength as it hovers near record highs, buoyed by safe-haven flows and dovish monetary policy expectations.
Technically, gold remains firmly positioned above its key pivot point at $3,070.09, reinforcing bullish control in the short term.
The 4-hour chart reveals a sustained uptrend, supported by a rising channel and the 50-period EMA at $3,029.63.
With price action maintaining a comfortable distance above this moving average, momentum favors continued upside, provided the metal holds above immediate support at $3,055.67.
Additional support zones lie at $3,036.63 and $3,013.17—both of which could cushion any short-term pullbacks.
On the upside, immediate resistance is noted at $3,089.64. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward $3,103.01, followed by a potential extension to $3,118.39.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently pointing upward but has yet to enter overbought territory, suggesting there is room for further gains before momentum stalls.
Gold’s bullish structure is further validated by the fact that price continues to respect both trendline and moving average support, while making higher highs and higher lows.
Traders may look to enter long positions above $3,070 with a target near $3,105, while keeping stops below $3,045 to manage downside risk.
Unless a sharp reversal breaks below $3,055, the current technical setup continues to favor buyers.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced notable weakness, falling to a low of 0.6615. This decline was primarily driven by fresh concerns over US auto tariffs, a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve, and the anticipation of Chinese economic stimulus.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to find some support, aided by Australia's strong trade relationships and commodity exports. Now, the AUD/USD pair has rebounded, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6319, successfully recovering its earlier losses.
US Auto Tariffs Escalate Trade Tensions, Weigh on Market Sentiment
The AUD/USD pair came under pressure after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports, set to take effect on April 2.
This move has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, with investors worried about the potential economic impact of the tariffs.
Additionally, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on copper imports. While this could benefit Australia’s copper-exporting economy, it also added to the overall uncertainty in global markets.
Despite the tariff concerns, the market received some relief when Trump offered a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports. However, these ongoing tariff disputes continued to overshadow the AUD’s ability to gain strength.
Fed Policy Uncertainty and Impact on the USD
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its recent highs, trading around 104.50 as market participants digested the latest economic data.
US Treasury yields, which had been providing support to the USD, showed signs of easing, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. These declines were compounded by the growing uncertainty surrounding US Federal Reserve policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both spoke about the challenges the Fed faces in managing inflation.
Kashkari highlighted that there is still more to be done. The uncertainty about the Fed's future decisions, combined with market concerns about an economic slowdown due to trade tensions, put pressure on the US Dollar. As a result, the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained some strength.
Chinese Stimulus and Australian Inflation Data Support AUD Amid Cautious Outlook
On the other hand, expectations of Chinese stimulus helped support the Australian Dollar (AUD), thanks to the strong trade ties between Australia and China.
The Chinese government's plans to boost consumption by raising wages and easing financial burdens are seen as positive for Australia's export-driven economy.
This stimulus could improve consumer confidence in China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, and help increase demand for Australian commodities.
At the same time, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a slight dip to 2.4%, which was below expectations but still reflected a stable inflation environment.
This muted inflation figure, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates steady, added to the cautious outlook for the Australian Dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is inching higher against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $0.63157, as the pair holds above its key pivot point at $0.62948.
This level also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62945, reinforcing short-term technical support and signaling a modestly bullish tone.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63304. A sustained break above this threshold could set the stage for a rally toward $0.63587, followed by a key ceiling at $0.63907—levels that have capped upside moves in previous sessions.
However, buyers will need continued momentum to push through these levels, especially with broader risk sentiment in flux.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62580. A drop below this could open a path to $0.62306 and $0.62060, where buying interest may re-emerge.
These levels should be watched closely in the event of a sentiment shift or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data later this week.
Technically, the structure favors a long bias above $0.62947, with a short-term target of $0.63426 and a stop loss set at $0.62692 to manage risk.
The pair continues to consolidate within a modest upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
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