GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its losing streak and stayed around the 1.3352 level.

The reason for this downward movement can be linked to a slight rise in the US Dollar, as traders prepared for key US economic data releases.

Moving ahead, tmarket is awaiting reports on GDP, employment, and inflation, which could offer more insight into the strength of the US economy and influence future currency movements.

The pair had recently reached a three-year high of 1.3445 but is now facing a correction due to the Dollar's strength ahead of these important reports.

US Economic Data Pressures Dollar and Raises Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

On the data front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is anticipated to report slower GDP growth of just 0.4% for Q1, a significant slowdown from the previous 2.4%. The sluggish growth reflects the strain from President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners, which have heightened global economic uncertainty.

Investors are also watching the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP Employment Change data for April, and the March PCE Price Index. These reports are expected to show signs of cooling job growth and inflationary pressures.

The ADP report forecasts just 108K new hires in April, below the previous month’s 155K, while core PCE inflation is expected to slow to 2.6%, from February’s 2.8%.

These signs of weakening economic conditions have led markets to speculate on a 65% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. Therefore, the dovish stance from the Fed would put additional pressure on the US Dollar and benefit GBP/USD in the short term.

BoE Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Trade War Fears

Meanwhile, the British Pound has struggled against its peers, except for the Japanese Yen, due to growing concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) could follow the Fed's lead and lower interest rates.

The BoE’s dovish outlook is largely driven by fears over the impact of Trump’s trade war on the UK economy. The imposition of new US tariffs could dampen inflationary pressures and slow UK economic growth, adding to the challenges faced by the BoE.

BoE policymaker Megan Greene noted that the trade war could be “net disinflationary” for the UK, with potential shocks in the job market due to higher social security contributions.

Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed the risks to economic growth from the ongoing trade conflict, which has led traders to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE’s May meeting.

Escalating Trade War Fears Put Pressure on GBP

On the other side, the global trade war, particularly the US-China tariff dispute, continues to weigh on market sentiment. The US is pressuring China to ease tensions, while Beijing has vowed to fight back, further escalating the uncertainty.

The Pound has been caught in the crossfire, with rising trade tensions undermining its outlook. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war has exacerbated market fears, which in turn, have affected the Pound’s performance against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is climbing within a well-defined ascending channel, currently supported by the lower trendline near $1.3380. Price is hovering just above the 50 SMA ($1.3392), which has recently acted as dynamic support.

A successful bounce here could fuel further upside toward the mid-channel level around $1.3438, aligned with recent price structure.

The candlestick formation shows a clear series of higher lows, reflecting sustained buying interest. After a brief consolidation, bullish momentum may resume if price holds above $1.3380.

The RSI is at 49.71, marginally below neutral but attempting to cross its signal line, suggesting a potential recovery in momentum.

No classic reversal patterns like engulfing or three white soldiers are present, but the structure supports gradual upside.

A break below $1.3358 would invalidate the setup and expose downside risk toward $1.3348 and $1.3315. Until then, bulls remain in control within the channel framework.

Related News