EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued to fall and reached close to the 1.1355 level. This decline was mainly due to the renewed strength of the US Dollar, which gained momentum ahead of important US economic data expected later in the North American session.
Investors are being cautious as they wait for key reports like the first-quarter GDP, the ADP Employment Change, and the March PCE Price Index. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved up slightly to around 99.35, showing growing demand for the dollar as markets prepare for these high-impact data releases.
EUR/USD Weighed by Firm USD and Cautious Fed Outlook Ahead of Key US Data
However, the pressure on the EUR/USD pair increased as investors sought the safe-haven US Dollar, expecting slower US economic growth and easing inflation. The US economy is expected to have grown just 0.4% in Q1, a sharp decline from the previous 2.4% growth.
Data on the labor market and inflation is also likely to show less economic momentum, which could affect future decisions by the Federal Reserve. Despite the weaker outlook, the dollar remains strong as markets wait for today’s data to confirm the slowdown.
Rising US-China Trade Tensions Keep Markets on Edge and Support the Greenback
Apart from the economic data, rising geopolitical tensions are also affecting market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized a tough stance from the US, stating that it is up to China to ease trade tensions. His comments came after China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US goods in response to the US's 145% tariffs.
Although China temporarily removed tariffs on some US imports, analysts believe this is more out of necessity than a genuine effort to reduce tensions. This ongoing trade conflict is keeping risk appetite low and supporting the strength of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Weakens on Eurozone Inflation Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the European front, the Euro also came under pressure due to disappointing inflation data across major Eurozone economies. Preliminary April CPI figures from six German states and France showed slowing price growth, while inflation in Italy and Spain remained stable.
Although French CPI slightly beat estimates at 0.8%, it was still below March’s 0.9%. Therefore, the overall picture of subdued inflation has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in its June policy meeting.
Despite the dismal inflation outlook, the Eurozone economy showed some resilience in Q1. Preliminary GDP data released on Wednesday beat expectations, with the region expanding by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter—double the growth seen in the previous quarter.
While this provided some temporary relief for the Euro, concerns around inflation, interest rates, and global trade continue to overshadow the broader economic narrative, keeping the EUR/USD pair under pressure in the near term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a tightening ascending structure, supported by a rising trendline from the April 23 low. The pair recently rebounded from $1.13618, just above the trendline and the proposed entry point at $1.13621, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
Price remains close to the 50-period SMA ($1.13836), which is currently acting as dynamic resistance. If this level is cleared, the next target is $1.14098, followed by stronger resistance near $1.14248.
Candlestick behavior reveals indecision, with recent spinning tops and small-bodied candles near the support zone.
However, there’s no strong reversal pattern yet—no bullish engulfing or three white soldiers—but the higher lows remain intact, keeping the bullish structure technically alive.
The RSI (14) is printing 46.88, slightly below neutral but curling upward, suggesting early bullish momentum. If RSI crosses above 50 and price clears the SMA, it would further confirm bullish intent.
A failure to hold the trendline near $1.13365 would invalidate this setup, potentially exposing the pair to a drop toward $1.13077.
For now, the setup favors a cautious long with tight risk control, watching the ascending trendline as a key inflection point. A breakout above $1.14098 may open up space for a run toward $1.14508.
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