False breaks and pattern counts
Pattern counts and outcomes
Lesson 2 of 3 · about 5 minutes
3 questions, each checked the moment you answer it.
6 steps · about 5 minutes
The interactive lesson walks these ideas one screen at a time and checks your answers as you go. The text below covers the same ground for reading.
Some of these shapes are much rarer than others
Every chart in this course came from one pair on one timeframe: EUR/USD, 4 hour, January to August 2026. Over those eight months the same rules you have been applying found 31 triangles, 16 double tops and 4 head-and-shoulders shapes. Each bar below is one of those counts: the longer the bar, the more often that shape appeared in this sample.
Breaking the neckline and reaching the target are counted separately
Read this sample as three groups, each one drawn from the group before it. The 7 that reached the target sit inside the 12 that broke below the neckline, and those 12 sit inside the 16 that were found. So the 7 belong to both totals at once: 12 out of the 16 found, then 7 out of the 12 that broke. Name the group a figure is counted against, or the same seven can be reported as two different results.
How often does price come back inside the level after a break?
A break is a candle closing beyond the level. Coming back inside means a later candle closes on the side price started from. Both are marked below: one candle closed above the level at 1.18535, and the next closed back below it at 1.18462. The tracked scan counted every break of that kind in EUR/USD, 4 hour, January to August 2026. It found 303 of them, and 126 had closed back inside the level within the next 12 candles. That is about 42% of the 303, a little over two in five.