Market Analysis
XAGUSD week ahead: silver holds gains, what to watch 2026-08-10
Silver closed last week at 63.516 after a sharp run higher, and this week is about whether that momentum holds against a stretched long position.
2 min readYou watched USDCAD open the week at 1.41632 and grind lower into Friday. The pair topped out at 1.41742 on Monday, then set the weekly low at 1.40098 on Thursday. It closed at 1.40361. That is a net move of about 127 pips lower on the week, a clear win for the Canadian dollar against the greenback.
The economic calendar was light, so flows drove the tape. Tuesday did the heavy lifting. The pair collapsed from a 1.41539 high to a 1.40472 low in a single session, and it never reclaimed that ground. Once 1.41000 gave way, sellers stayed in control and each bounce faded.
The wider dollar story leaned soft. A widely followed long term dollar bull flipped bearish this week, citing structural deficits and AI driven borrowing in a public pivot reported Thursday. That kind of narrative shift adds weight to a dollar that was already leaking against the loonie. The move against the greenback was not isolated to USDCAD, and you saw similar dollar softness reflected across the majors.
The bundle carries no scheduled high impact economic events for the coming week. With the calendar bare, price is likely to trade on broad dollar sentiment and oil flows, given the Canadian dollar's link to crude. If the dollar softness that defined this week continues, USDCAD stays under pressure and the recent lows come back into focus. If risk sours and the dollar catches a safe haven bid, the pair can retrace toward the levels it lost on Tuesday. Watch how other dollar pairs behave for confirmation, since a move in EUR/USD often signals whether the greenback weakness is broad or isolated.
LHFX client positioning sits at 51.5 percent long and 48.5 percent short as of 2026-07-17. That is a near even book with a slight lean toward longs, which reads as traders fading the weekly decline and betting on a bounce. A crowded long skew after a directional drop can act as fuel for further downside if those longs get flushed.
The Thursday low at 1.40098 is the line in the sand. If price closes below it, the round 1.40000 handle is the next obvious test, and a break there opens room lower. On the upside, Tuesday's failed level near 1.41000 caps any rebound. If bulls reclaim and hold above it, the Monday high at 1.41742 comes back into play. You can track these levels live and set your own alerts through an LHFX account.
Byline: LHFX Research
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