USDCAD trades at 1.39302 as of Wednesday's close, down from Monday's open of 1.39523. That is a drop of roughly 22 pips on the week so far. The high this week is 1.39634, set Monday, and the low is 1.39149, printed Tuesday. Price has spent the middle of the week grinding in a tight band between those two extremes.
No high-impact data has landed on USDCAD this week. The move lower into Tuesday's 1.39149 low came without a scheduled catalyst on the calendar. The one headline moving through the tape was the PBOC fixing the USD/CNY mid-point well above the Reuters estimate. That is a weaker yuan signal, and it filtered into broad dollar tone rather than hitting the loonie directly.
The back half of this week carries no scheduled top-tier events in the bundle for USDCAD. That leaves price at the mercy of dollar flow and oil moves into Thursday and Friday. If the broad dollar firms and USDCAD reclaims 1.39457, the Tuesday reaction high, the top of the week's range at 1.39634 comes back into view. If sellers press again and the pair loses 1.39149, the round 1.3900 handle is the next area in play. Watch AUD/USD for the cleaner read on general dollar direction.
As of Wednesday, LHFX client positioning shows 51.7 percent long and 48.3 percent short. That is close to balanced, with a slight lean toward longs. Midweek, it tells you consensus has not committed. Traders are waiting for a catalyst rather than pressing the recent slide.
The pair is fighting around the 1.3930 area, right where it opened Wednesday and closed the session. If buyers hold 1.39181, Wednesday's low, the range stays intact and 1.39457 is the level to watch above. If price slips under 1.39149, the week's low, momentum sellers get room toward 1.3900. You can track these levels live on your LHFX platform and open an account to follow USDCAD through the back half of the week.
Byline: LHFX Research
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